TP hero call on 4-straight - good/flawed thought process?

[griffey24]

-Villain in this hand is a good reg, Bruut
-He has the button on 3 tables to my blinds and I have been 3betting him almost non-stop
-I shipped Ax over his 4bet and he had AA and I lost, I shipped over another 4bet later and he folded
-He's probably getting sick of me, and I'd expect him to be capable of 3betting light here on the button vs my utg open

Thought process:
-flat pre, think he's either shipping a pair over a 4bet here or folding nonsense, given dynamic. Most of my action has been vs his button opens and not with these positions
-flop I donk, I expect a lot of his merged range of hands Tx,Jx,Qx,Kx, floats to call this flop (but check back if I check)
-I don't expect him to 3bet TT/JJ too often vs my utg open, and if he did he would likely raise this flop (discount TT/JJ a lot), he'd probably also raise KJ often (discount)
-I probably have more TT/JJ in my range, I'd expect him to bet any Qx on the turn the majority of the time (discount Qx)
-I don't get what he's betting on the river, that didn't raise the flop or bet the turn, other than KJ/T9/J9 if he 3bet these pre?

River call because he doen't make sense and I'm likely ahead
River fold cause he might value bet some random two pairs with 9x or KJ
River jam cause he doesn't have a straight and might fold 9x or KJ?


$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero (UTG) ($574.80)
UTG+1 ($465.60)
CO ($484.70)
BTN ($406)
SB ($558.35)
BB ($757)

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) Hero is UTG
Hero raises to $14, 2 folds, BTN raises to $44, 2 folds, Hero calls $30

Flop: ($94, 2 players)
Hero bets $65, BTN calls $65

Turn: ($224, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($224, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $140, Hero ??

[pocketfours]

Don't like the flop lead and I'd definitely fold river.

[griffey24]

Don't like the flop lead and I'd definitely fold river.

I think this is the type of flop where people assume it hits a ton of hands, they don't cbet light and they also check back a ton. Donking isn't something I do often at all in these spots but isn't this a pretty good board?

Do you put him on a mostly slow played Qx on the river?

[IowaSkinsFan]

hund percent fold river dont rly get flop though

[Neil MacPhee]

I don't like the lead either, he flats with everything.

River is deffo fold... or a super sexy check raise.

[pocketfours]

I think this is the type of flop where people assume it hits a ton of hands, they don't cbet light and they also check back a ton. Donking isn't something I do often at all in these spots but isn't this a pretty good board?

It's not a very good board to lead with any hand because your (perceived) range contains very little (if any) bluffs. You will be oop with a well defined range against a good player with a very strong range. That's usually asking for trouble.

This brings us to the fact that I think you probably shouldn't have an oop flatting range pre against a good player, especially when you open utg.

The fact that villain might not cbet isn't a very big problem for any part of your range because you can still get most of your stack in (with the top of your range) on later streets.

With AK you are very close to the bottom of your range and this should be a fairly easy ccc/fff for the reasons you mentioned yourself.

I also don't think your lead here will be called by worse as often as you think. Even if he does call with worse, are you really willing to c/c down most turns and rivers? Because that's a decision you will be facing very often (when your AK is the best hand on this board).

Do you put him on a mostly slow played Qx on the river?

I think he has you beat and I wouldn't put a very big discount on Qx because of turn action. I guess he could have something like Axs but that's got to be heavily discounted on every street (except river of course), right?

[griffey24]

Ok thanks for the replies guys.

I c/c and beat his AJo, but was just checking if my call luckboxed or not.