How to calculate odds?

[pokernewbie]

Hi, I'm not talking about the regular charts of odds I can find everywhere. I learn better when I understand how things are done. What I want to have is the formula to calculate the odds. I want to understand how when you have 10 OUTS you are:

1 in 4.7 (on the turn)
1 in 4.6 (on the river)
1 in 2.6 (on either the turn or the river)

Now, I think you do:

47/OUTS (for the turn)
46/OUTS (for the river)

But, I can't figure out how you calculate the (turn & river) combined and get to the 1 in 2.6 (with 10 outs).

Thanks for the help

[spoonitnow]

Say there are 47 cards left in the deck on the flop, and you have 10 outs to hit on the turn. That means that there are 10 cards that help you, and 37 cards that hurt you. The ratio of good cards to bad cards is 10:37, or 1:3.7. As a fraction, there are 10 out of 47 total cards that help you, which is 10/47, or 1 out of 4.7. It seems like you've got that part.

To see how it works for two streets, it's a little more complicated. The easiest way is to figure out the chance of missing both streets, then subtract that chance from 100%. The chance of missing on the turn is 37/47, and the chance of missing on the river is 36/46, so the chance of missing both is 37/47 * 36/46 = 0.6161 or 61.61%. That means the chance of hitting is 100% - 61.61% = 38.39%. So your chance of hitting is 38.39/100, or about 1/2.57.

[pokernewbie]

Hi, Thanks so much. Now it makes sense. This is a great forum, I wish I had more to offer. At this point I guess I only have questions.

[spoonitnow]

No problem. This might also help: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ws-173190.html

[EasyPoker]

Have a look here too:

Poker Odds Chart - Basic Poker Odds & Charts

[Stacks]

Hi, I'm not talking about the regular charts of odds I can find everywhere.

Have a look here too:

Poker Odds Chart - Basic Poker Odds & Charts

Brilliant.

[pokernewbie]

Thanks everyone for all the great info and the extra reading. I have been afraid of the implied odds but this is going to be my next step. I have lots of great reading ahead of me.

[OhioRounder]

Don't forget about implied odds.
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ws-173190.html

Edit: didn't see spoon's post above

[pokernewbie]

Hi, I've been reading about odds and I find 3 format...

ODDS %
ODDS (X to 1)
ODDS (1 in X)

Lets take a flopped FLUSH DRAW where you have 9 outs on the flop then the odds on the turn are:
19.1%
4.2 to 1
1 in 5.2

No, what I'm looking for is the meaning of each type of odds.

I think that the 19.1% means that if I were to call the turn 100 times to hit the flush I would hit it 19.1 times out of 100 times I do that. (If it's not that, please let me know)

I think that 4.2 to 1 means that for every 1 card that help me hit the flush, 4.2 card will not make me hit the flush. (If it's not that, please let me know)

I think that 1 in 5.2 means that in every 5.2 cards, I have 1 card that will help me hit my flush. (If it's not that, please let me know)

I'm getting a headache with the odds. I really wish there were only % since they are the easiest to calculate and compare to pot odds. I'm I correct to concentrate more on % and not so much on (X to 1 ) and (1 in X) or should I concentrate on all 3 types.

Thanks so much, can't wait to read the replies.

[spoonitnow]

You're right with what all of those mean. The reason we use ratios for outs is that it more easily translates to pot size vs bet size when you're at the table instead of trying to calculate what percentage of the pot you're putting in, etc.

[pokernewbie]

Hi again, Boy I feel better that I now know I understand those odds meanings. I guess I have to look at POT SIZE vs BET SIZE again so that I can understand this now:

The reason we use ratios for outs is that it more easily translates to pot size vs bet size when you're at the table instead of trying to calculate what percentage of the pot you're putting in, etc.

Fo some reason, I thought that doing it with % was much easier than ratios. I always look at the pot and think, it's $400 and I have to put in 25% (if the call is $100) and a flush draw is 19.1% on the turn so it would be a bad call since it's costing me 25% of the pot and I have a 19.1% chance of hitting. I'm I doing this wrong. Thanks so much for your time. My head is about to explode but I'm learning so much.

[spoonitnow]

Fo some reason, I thought that doing it with % was much easier than ratios. I always look at the pot and think, it's $400 and I have to put in 25% (if the call is $100) and a flush draw is 19.1% on the turn so it would be a bad call since it's costing me 25% of the pot and I have a 19.1% chance of hitting. I'm I doing this wrong. Thanks so much for your time. My head is about to explode but I'm learning so much.

Yeah it doesn't quite work like that. If the pot was $400 after your opponent bets $100 and you have a 20% chance to hit, then you're break even. Your odds are 4:1, which translates to 1/5, not 1/4.

[pokernewbie]

Maybe I just need some sleep but I'm lost on that example. I'll look at it again with fresh eyes in the morning. This is something I find confusing and I know I need to understand it. Lets hope it's just a lack of sleep.

[spoonitnow]

For clarity I'll say it like this: If you win $400 20% of the time, and lose $100 80% of the time, you break even on the call.

[Santo2True]

i don't know if anyone else does it this way, and it may have already been posted but i didn't read through the whole thread. but here is how i do my math:

1.How many “Outs” we have – Cards that will make us a winning hand
2.What are our “Pot Odds” – How much money will we win in return for our bet

To figure out my outs i use:
RULE OF 4 AND 2
Number of Cards still to come % probability we will hit our Outs
After the Flop – 2 cards to come (Turn + River) Number of Outs times 4
After the Turn – 1 card to come (River) Number of Outs times 2

outs/4x/exaxt%............................outs/2x/exact%

1 4 % 4.5 %...............................1 2 % 2.3 %
2 8 % 8.8 %...............................2 4 % 4.5 %
3 12 % 13.0 %..............................3 6 % 6.8 %
4 16 % 17.2 %..............................4 8 % 9.1 %
5 20 % 21.2 %..............................5 10 % 11.4 %
6 24 % 25.2 %..............................6 12 % 13.6 %
7 28 % 29.0 %..............................7 14 % 15.9 %
8 32 % 32.7 %..............................8 16 % 18.2 %
9 36 % 36.4 %..............................9 18 % 20.5 %
10 40 % 39.9 %.............................10 20 % 22.7 %
11 44 % 43.3 %............................ 11 22 % 25.0 %
12 48 % 46.7 %.............................12 24 % 27.3 %
13 52 % 49.9 %.............................13 26 % 29.5 %
14 56 % 53.0 %.............................14 28 % 31.8 %
15 60 % 56.1 %.............................15 30 % 34.1 %
16 64 % 59.0 %.............................16 32 % 36.4 %
17 68 % 61.8 %.............................17 34 % 38.6 %

so once we caculate our outs and come up with %chance of hitting that out on which street we need to figure out our pot odds.

Break Even Percentage = 100% divided by (Pot odds added together)

Pot Odds added together means replace the “to” with a plus sign. in example: 3 to 1 becomes 3+1 = 4

so for example, we hold KTo and there is OESD on the flop as it comes
QJ6r

Open Ended Straight Draw = 8 Outs (4 Aces and 4 Nines)
King Top Pair = 3 Outs (4 Kings less the King in our hand)

Total Outs = 11 Probability of Winning = 11 x 4 = 44%

Lets say the pot on the flop =$40

Total Pot is now $40 and we are asked to call $10 so our Pot odds are 4 to 1 and our break even % = 100% divided by 5 = 20%.

which gives us (44% vs 20%) so in this example it will be a "correct" call and in the long run a "profitable" call

That's just the simple math I use and it might look crazy at first, but the more you use it the easier it gets and soon you will keep all the numbers in your head and be able to do them on the fly. GL

[Sasquach991]

...
so for example, we hold KTo and there is OESD on the flop as it comes
QJ6r

Open Ended Straight Draw = 8 Outs (4 Aces and 4 Nines)
King Top Pair = 3 Outs (4 Kings less the King in our hand)

Total Outs = 11 Probability of Winning = 11 x 4 = 44%

Lets say the pot on the flop =$40

Total Pot is now $40 and we are asked to call $10 so our Pot odds are 4 to 1 and our break even % = 100% divided by 5 = 20%.

which gives us (44% vs 20%) so in this example it will be a "correct" call and in the long run a "profitable" call

That's just the simple math I use and it might look crazy at first, but the more you use it the easier it gets and soon you will keep all the numbers in your head and be able to do them on the fly. GL

The 4x rule is used for a shove or limit (I think) because in no limit there will usually be another bet on the turn and you have to reevaluate again.

For the turn or river just use 2x+1. And don't for get about implied odds.

[texa8]

Total Pot is now $40 and we are asked to call $10 so our Pot odds are 4 to 1 and our break even % = 100% divided by 5 = 20%.

which gives us (44% vs 20%) so in this example it will be a "correct" call and in the long run a "profitable" call

mmm this is true for a shove yes but really we should be looking at making our hand on the next street, i.e. 11 x 2 = 22% chance of making our hand.

This is also a very optimistic scenario and villian will often bet at least 1/2 psb, something like $25 into $40 meaning we are calling $25 to win $65 and are 2.6 to 1 and need %27 and a fold is nearly always correct...

until of course we factor in our implied odds. in this case if we feel we can extract another $20 on the turn we are calling $25 to win $85 and we are effectively 3.4:1 or about 22%.

[texa8]

also, we can think about fold equity to add stength to our hand.. lets say we are in the above example as the pre flop raiser and were called by the button who is an agressive player who we know is positionally aware..

We make a continuation bet with our OESD and the button raises. Buttons range may contain a Q,J, weak pair/draw type hands, air, small pairs etc...

rather than calling OOP here i find reraising and effectively committing us here in this situation can be the better play. This is under the assumption we figure to make a winning hand around 40% with around 9-10 outs (on the assumption our K is good) so if the money goes in here we are behind...

.. but the assuption is our flop 3 bet folds out a ton of better hands, such as Jx, draws, mid PP type hands... which is a win as we only hold K high... if villian calls or shoves we still have 40%, but villian is folding enough to our flop reraise to make this play +EV...

Im a little scratchy with applying fold equity and would love some clarification to these ideas... thanks!

[pokernewbie]

I'm printing all the posts and trying to understand it. I know I'll get it at some point. Does anyone know of a book like... ODDS FOR DUMMIES??

I think I really need to start from the basics, very basics. I'm already lost with the pot odds and hand odds to decide to call and now I see "fold equity" , "+EV" and that the odds work differently when it's a "SHOVE" and I wont even talk about IMPLIED ODDS.

I really need to understand this but I'm kinda at the VERY BEGINNING. Any suggestions as to where I can get the very basic odds explained?

Thanks guys!

[Santo2True]

yeah, what i posted is a very simple way of calculating odds. It is not the best of every situation but like I said, it's how I learned and easy to do at a table while on the fly and will give you a general idea if you are putting money in when your getting a good price to CALL.

Spoon has some good posts around with a ton of information in them about implied odds etc etc..
I'll find a link real quick and post it for you

edit:http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ws-173190.html
This is about implied odds.. .just keep reading stuff like this and go and check out a handhistory you have where you were in a pot like this or you weren't sure you were getting a good price to put your money in. Then use the math to figure out if you made a good or bad call and just keep doing it. You'll get the hang of it and you can always ask more questions here.

[pokernewbie]

I'm looking at the implied odds right now and it seems like it's impossible to be sure about that. How can you "assume" that someone will bet the turn and how much they are going to bet. What if you "assume" they will bet 50bb and they bet less than that then your odds are going to be wrong and maybe it will be a "bad" call because of it. What is they bet ALLin because they are nuts and have no idea what they are doing? I'm new, and I mean no disrespect, I'm just trying to understand... But, it looks like "implied odds" are just an "excuse" to call. If you play with the numbers then you could make them that they would say CALL or FOLD.

I'm sure I'm wrong about the next sentence, but I need to find out what players think about it. It seems like each call should only be made with the info you have that is sure (like how much you have to call and what your odds are).

I read the article suggested "About Pot Odds and Implied Odds When Playing Draws", it was greatly done and helped a lot. Now, a stupid question... What is +EV?

Thanks again all, this is the best forum!

[spoonitnow]

The better your guesses about future betting, the better your gauge on implied odds, and the better your understanding is of what the right decisions are. It's just another thing you can do better than your opponents to gain an edge.

+EV is short for positive expected value. Expected value is the average profit you expect to get from something. So if something is +EV, that means on average you're going to get a positive profit from it (as opposed to a negative profit aka losing money).

[pokernewbie]

Hi again! I'm sure this is a STUPID question but I need to ask. I'm practicing counting outs to do my hand odds and doing my pot odds. Now, when articles tell you about OUTS, it's always on the FLOP. Does that mean that you can only count OUTS on the FLOP?

I know that you have more info after the FLOP to count outs since you can see if you have straight, flush... possibilities.

In case you can count OUTS pre-flop, then is this done when someone goes ALL-in and you want to know if you should call or is it also done just to call any raise?

Thanks again for the help!

[Imthenewfish]

Hand equity preflop not outs, compare your hand with their range

[Santo2True]

to put that in a little more detail... if you have a villain who is let's say 34/18, you're on the button with like ATs. Against this kind of villain you would be ahead of his opening range. Same position same hand you have a villain who's 8/8. If he raises you are most likely behind his range. Download pokerstove if you haven't already and get familiar with it and you can use it to get an idea of how much equity you have preflop against certain villains opening/raising range. Once you mess with it for awhile you will start to get a feel for it and should be able to figure it on the fly