10nl 6max AdJd - river bluff thought process.

[Dex]

Hey all. Looking for some discussion on my thought process in this hand.

Villain is 41/22 over 50 hands, and of 6 opportunities so far has cbet 2 times. AQo on Ad5s7h and KQo on Kd5dQc. Villain's stats quickly began to look taggish but the table has been running over him a little bit and he seems to be getting frustrated which has got him calling more PF. The UTG limper that villain isolates is a 66/9 fish. I 3bet villain early on at the table vs his iso over the fish posting sb+bb and he quickly called ip, folding to a 1/2 psb cbet on 4h6d7h. I considered 3betting again but decided to flat the hand OOP to get the fish to come along, and the BB was unlikely to squeeze.

I decide to check the flop to give villain the opportunity to make what should be a fairly obvious cbet, intending to c/c or c/r depending on timing and sizing. Villain checks back pretty quickly. I think it's fair to assume any Kx hand cbets the flop for value/protection, and given villain's problems coping with the table I think the majority of the time cbets a flopped set trying to get value, very rarely checking back KK. I think villain's range for checking back here can be QQ, JJ, TT, 88, AQ, AJ, AT, JT and a bunch of lower cards, such as small pocket pairs plus some suited connectors. It's hard for villain to have a diamond draw as the Ad, Kd and Jd are accounted for.

Leading the turn is totally standard, and villain doesn't take very long to call. Villain could be drawing or could have a weak made hand that he feels he needs to call at least one street with since he didn't cbet. This makes me think villain's turn call range contains hands such as QQ, JJ, 88, AQ, AJ, AT, JT and spade draws. I think if villain had checked back the flop with a set or turned one with TT he would have at least had to consider raising my turn lead to start getting money into the pot.

One of the things I've really begun to notice is how people talk themselves into calling down simply because they showed weakness earlier in the hand. When villain flats my turn lead my immediate thought is if I fire the river I'm not going to get him off enough of his paired hands. If I check, I give him the chance to let me show down for free. But more importantly, I give him the opportunity to bet missed draws and weak pairs. Based on the range I feel he has, villain has essentially no hands that if bet can call a river check/shove. So, my best chance for winning this hand isn't firing the river but looking to check/bomb it.

River bricks, I check, villain quickly pots the river and I count to 3 before shipping.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Hero (SB) ($13.95)
BB ($10)
UTG ($14.70)
Villain (MP) ($13.35)
CO ($7.15)
Button ($9.75)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, J
UTG calls $0.10, Villain bets $0.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.45, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.20) 7, 9, K (2 players)
Hero checks, Villain checks

Turn: ($1.20) 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.70, Villain calls $0.70

River: ($2.60) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, Villain bets $2.50, Hero raises to $12.75 (All-In)

Thoughts?

[Donachello]

Honestly, I don't like it for multiple reasons. Here's what I'd see from a villain perspective.
1) You'd be betting every K on the flop except maybe AK or KQ, of which maybe KQ is in your range.
2) Betting the turn looks kind of like a steal attempt and it is just under half the pot so it coudl also be a "pot-control value-bet with like Tx or 9x.
3) If you're value-betting a T or a 9 then why are you not betting on the brick.
4) Villain's range looks a lot like diamonds(discounted since you hold 2), QQ, JJ,Tx maybe even 33. I just don't see him folding anywhere near enough to make this profitable since you really aren't repping anything here.
5) why risk your entire stack when even just over a min-raise is going to get him to fold the bluff part of his range.

[Dex]

Honestly, I don't like it for multiple reasons. Here's what I'd see from a villain perspective.
1) You'd be betting every K on the flop except maybe AK or KQ, of which maybe KQ is in your range.
2) Betting the turn looks kind of like a steal attempt and it is just under half the pot so it coudl also be a "pot-control value-bet with like Tx or 9x.
3) If you're value-betting a T or a 9 then why are you not betting on the brick.
4) Villain's range looks a lot like diamonds(discounted since you hold 2), QQ, JJ,Tx maybe even 33. I just don't see him folding anywhere near enough to make this profitable since you really aren't repping anything here.
5) why risk your entire stack when even just over a min-raise is going to get him to fold the bluff part of his range.

Hey Donachello, thanks for taking the time to respond. I appreciate it.

1) I'm not the pfr so I'd expect to rarely have AK in this spot myself, and since the river is such a blank if I had like KQ or KJ I'd definitely consider checking the river to pick off a bet.
2) The turn lead is a little over half pot, I could probably have gone bigger for value and did consider this after the hand.
3) I'd consider c/c Tx on the river too, I definitely don't think it's straight forward that I'd fire turn/river for value.
4) I'd discount 33 a bunch but who knows, villain may be stubborn on the turn sometimes. I'm not convinced a player who is at least trying to play well will bet/call it off with JJ or QQ on the river.
5) I'm not just trying to fold villain's bluffs, I'm curious as to whether I can get him off hands as strong as QQ or JJ. I did think about the possibility of raising without shoving, but felt a shove gave villain the worst possible odds I could lay him and an awkward spot 130bb deep.

[Donachello]

Okay so I was kind of drunk during that last post so let me clarify.
1) I am just saying that since there is a flush draw, despite not being the PFR why would you not be betting this K. I also am implying that AK is not in your range when I say you'd be betting every K except AK.
2) lol math fail.
3) shrug, player specific I guess.
4) Personally, I'd probably be snapping this off with QQ or JJ since your line really just doesn't make sense for you to have a K why would a K check raise the river? Other than that what could you be repping... a rivered set of 3s? doubtful.
5) If he were insanely nitty like 10/4 with a 50% Cbet or something then maybe you c ould get him off QQ or JJ but like you said this dude is 41/22 = not a chance.

[eragotte]

I think it is fine, a bit spewy but I like the thought process in general. I think you still rep a strong range because he may not realize that you know he doesn't cbet a lot so he may think you whiffed a c/r which is very comment at these limits oop on flops.

Id be a little worried about TT which is in his range since he doesn't cbet much... still fine though imo

[Carroters]

I like your thought process a lot think it shows a good understanding of the hand putting your opponents on a range.

I don't like this vs this player though for a couple of reasons. Mainly, the vast majority of his weak pairs that have showdown value are going to be checking back just to showdown here, there isn't too too much that needs to bluff you here other than the missed spdes/other draws which are a pretty small part of his range. I'd expect this guy to be betting not only diamonds on the flop almost always, but also some of his air given often including 2 random spades. Therefore, I think most spade draws or other draws that call the turn also have sd value a good amount and thus don't bet this river.

What I think is more likely here is that villain is a tard that has no idea how to bet for value and has checked back a king or 2 pair or a king that's now made 2 pair. This guy is also probably a station so I wouldn't expect him to be able to fold much that he's actually bet for value on this river. I'd like it vs a TAG that can fold a weak marginal hand he's bet for value.

Given this, the amount of the time you need him to fold for this to be profitbable is just too much imo.

I like your thought process, just not vs this opponent, because I think you underestimate how many random badly played strong hands a guy like this can show up with and how reluctant he'll be to fold any of them. I also think you overestimate how many weakish made hands he'll bet this river with, given he's pot controlled them in earlier streets.

[eragotte]

did u note that he only cbet 2/6 and it was both on strong hands? small sample but it says something

[Dex]

FWIW, the maths suggest villain needs to fold a little under 70.5% of the time for this to be breakeven.

Okay so I was kind of drunk during that last post so let me clarify.
1) I am just saying that since there is a flush draw, despite not being the PFR why would you not be betting this K. I also am implying that AK is not in your range when I say you'd be betting every K except AK.
2) lol math fail.
3) shrug, player specific I guess.
4) Personally, I'd probably be snapping this off with QQ or JJ since your line really just doesn't make sense for you to have a K why would a K check raise the river? Other than that what could you be repping... a rivered set of 3s? doubtful.
5) If he were insanely nitty like 10/4 with a 50% Cbet or something then maybe you c ould get him off QQ or JJ but like you said this dude is 41/22 = not a chance.

1) Would you lead AK or KQ into a pfr who isolates a fish to 5x? This is the perfect board for him to follow through on, and without strong reads he'll spaz vs a lead, c/c Kx seems standard here right? Maybe donk turn.
2) You're right though, I like my turn sizing but could def have gone bigger.
3) It is, and it's a feel thing too. Sometimes c/c, sometimes value bet, sometimes c/f. I might be less inclined to turn Tx or 9x into a bluff given it has more showdown value than A-hi here.
4) Really? I feel like if I get to the river and somehow vbet it for pot w/ QQ or JJ, hoping to get a bad call from Tx, I'm getting owned calling a shove on this board. I think it's interesting villain chose to bet pot, because what is he really getting value from with that size? If he'd bet less I probably would have raised instead of shoved tho.
5) Perhaps, with this villain I think his true stats would be a lot closer to something competent and regish rather than 41/22, as I said he started out taggish but seems to have loosened through frustration.

Definitely appreciate your thoughts and I'm really interested that you would snap this off with QQ or JJ. If you didn't know I had A-hi here, what do you think my river c/r range would be?

I think it is fine, a bit spewy but I like the thought process in general. I think you still rep a strong range because he may not realize that you know he doesn't cbet a lot so he may think you whiffed a c/r which is very comment at these limits oop on flops.

Id be a little worried about TT which is in his range since he doesn't cbet much... still fine though imo

Yeah, on reflection and having done the maths it seems a little spewy but I'm still unconvinced villain's range has hands strong enough to call often enough. I agree TT is probably his most likely strongest hand but given how wet the turn is and the need to build a pot, I'd still expect to get raised by that on the turn a lot.

Ultimately this just seems like a difficult board for villain to call on which is what I thought when I made my decision on the turn to go for it. 77/99 flopped sets, 3 turned straights of varying likelyhood given that I would call wider with the fish still to come along, a bunch of two pairs and even 33 some percentage of the time because I'm going to lead that on the turn a bunch, whether that's good or bad is another discussion! And I feel comfortable checking a lot of those hands on the river because I think his range has a lot of thin value bets in it/bad blocks.

What do you think is the weakest hand that you likely get to the river with this way and can call a c/shove?

[Dex]

Carroters, Eragotte, thanks for your responses. I think it's worth noting that of the sample of cbets/non-cbets that we have, the two cbet examples I gave saw villain fire TPGK and top 2 pair 3 streets for value. The former vs the fish and the latter vs a nit.

Villain also opened AhQh and oop vs the 66/9 fish checked flop and turn, check/calling river and winning on 8c6h3s8s9h. Villain raised in BB vs 20bb UTG limp and SB fish complete, c/c flop, lead turn, c/f river 5d9c5sJh9s.

So I dunno, between the above and the fact all strong hands are made by the time I make my turn lead, I feel like villain's river shove calling range is his turn raising range. And he didn't raise turn...

That said, yeah, it wouldn't be a huge surprise to run into a spaz 2 pair or something.

[eragotte]

Personally I wouldnt get to the river as played with anything that could call a c/shove I don't think lol. His action should have told you if he has a set by now unless he is terribad so the more I think about it the more I like it.

Maybe QdJd or QsJs. I just can't say whether I'd call with like AK because I'd never be in this spot. (and neither would he)

I think you can get your 70.5% and more, nh

[Dex]

Results: Villain folded after 8-9 seconds. I felt the check/shove was more likely to work than trying to bet villain out, and I was really confident when I made my decision on the turn that villain's range couldn't stand up to the river check/shove. I would absolutely love to find a selection of hands that play how villain did and could conceivably call the river. I wouldn't play QQ or AK like this, but if I did, I'd genuinely want to fold them.

As said, I need villain to fold just under 70.5% of the time. If villain always bets river like this but folds 85% of time, my equity is $2.51 each time even with being called 15% - essentially villain's river bet. 15% still seems pretty big for a range that is unlikely to have any strong hands in it, but I guess could cover the rare exception and bluff catches.

[surviva316]

DEFINITELY lead flop. good job with collecting your reads, now take advantage of it by realizing he generally only cbets with a strong range. there's no need to check to the PFR when the PFR doesn't cbet light.

as played, we need far too much FE equity (given the awkward amount of stack left behind and the fact that we never win when called) to pull this off profitably. if we're going to bluff, we could do something like a CiB or a raise to 7.00 because most of his b/f'ing range is air anyway.

[Dex]

Hey Surviva, appreciate for your response. I actually didn't consider leading because villain's normal iso size had been 3bb + 1bb for each limp, so when he made it 5bb total I actually anticipated a cbet, plus the boards he had failed to cbet on were all mid/low flops that he'd be expected to miss a lot.

Leading flop would have likely made later streets easier though. It's actually a really interesting spot to do it in, leading is something I do but I missed how obvious an opportunity this could be.

My main reason for electing to check/shove, particularly vs his chosen bet size, is I felt a shove maximised my fold equity in a way that a 2-2.5x c/r may not. I agree that I need villain to fold a significant amount of the time to breakeven, but villain's range seems so weak here and I'm really interested in what villain's calling range can be.

Edit: The breakeven point for raising to $7 is villain needing to fold 58% of the time. This is an improvement on the 70.5% a shove requires, so do we think the difference between the two will not be offset by an increased likelyhood of being called?