Tough river with bottom set. (25NL)

[Belt]

Villain is 35/5/1 ~100 hands.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($20.73)
Hero (SB) ($35.30)
BB ($5)
UTG ($13.48)
MP ($49.01)
CO ($24.65)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5, 5
UTG calls $0.25, 2 folds, Button calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.15, BB checks

UTG usually doesn't limp and the button always limps. I expect UTG to have PPs here a lot and if I raise UTG will call easily because btn always limp-calls, never raises or folds after limping. Raising almost always will lead to a 3-way bloated flop which I'll be oop and c/f most of the times. So I decided to complete and see if I will hit a set since I'm pretty sure that btn will call all the way if he hits any part of the board.


Flop: ($1) 5, 7, A (4 players)
Hero bets $1, 2 folds, Button calls $1

Now that I hit my set on a very drawy board I decided to lead full-pot. I'm pretty sure UTG stays in only with a set and btn will call with every draw and with every Ace.


Turn: ($3) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $2, Button calls $2

When btn calls that turn bet, I expect his range to be formed by straight draws (64s, 86s), every Ax, and every flush draw. Maaaybe something like 66, 88, 99, I'm not sure. I don't expect him to have 77, 75s, A7, A5 in his range because turn is where this guy shows some aggression. He would raise those by turn. I don't expect him to hold AQ, AK and TT+ because he would bet them pre.


River: ($7) J (2 players)
Hero bets $3.25, Button raises $17.48 (All-In), Hero?

I hate this Jh. I decided to bet halfpot/fold to get him to call with Ax and 2pair hands. I really don't expect him to bluff with missed str8 draws since I didn't see him raising the river much but who knows... AJ may do this? Whatever, the original plan was to bet/fold this river after all...

What do you guys think? Thanks in advance.

[spoonitnow]

First off, we're calling about 14 when the pot is about 28 so we need somewhere around 33% equity to call. There are tons of flush draws in his range (especially since we don't see the Ah out there anywhere) and he would have most likely raised earlier in the hand if he flopped or turned Aces-up. This leaves AJ and the rare other two-pair that we beat.

The river bet-sizing from such a passive player is rather telling. He's not always (read rarely) going to shove with AJ here, instead doing something stupid like minraising plus a little because he'll be afraid of the flush. So as played, I'm pretty sure his flush combinations outnumber his effective AJ combinations by more than 2:1, so I think it's a fold.

It's also possible that you should bet a little more on the river.

[Belt]

Thanks spoonitnow. Actually the river sizing, as you mentioned, was bothering me. It's clear that my range doesn't include any flush, he must be aware of that if he's half observant. Then this bet sizing is like to announce that I will bet/fold. I don't know, may be I am just overthinking this but when I look at this now, I feel like a 6$ bet/fold could have been better.

Any other suggestions about my range assumption, bet sizing?

[Donachello]

I think I might have might have bet a little more on the turn, like 2.50. On the river I think you are right about the bet being a little too small. It might be an easier fold if you see a bigger bet being raised by a non aggro player. Something a bit over half like 4.50 will probably still get calls from almost his entire range except flushes which would raise. I highly doubt as spoon said that an AJ is shoving here with a flush on the board.