300bb deep all in river overshove bluff

[eragotte]

okay so villain had his stack before i got here but he clearly has been avoiding getting in big pots with me and letting me know when he is way ahead way ahead of time... i.e. like flops a set and reraises huge and just generally trying to take down pots without risking his stack. i.e. scared money imo.

so flop c/r i dont think is a bluff at all (rather he didnt want me to float and put him in a tough spot so he wants to end it on flop), more so im guessing it is kj-ak and knowing this i think i cant get him off it by the river so i 4bet small just to make sure he isnt going to ship over. turn i dont wanna look like i am trying to make him fold so i make a nice callable bet, when he calls (doesn't take to long) i know he is trying to represent an easy decision so if im bluffing (which he shouldnt think i am anyway) i wont bet river, he desperately wants river to go check/check. anyways on the river i think shove is best because he wont have the balls to put it in even with AK (although i think KQ is way more likely, but AK maybe since he wouldnt want to start a big pot with AK with me oop pre)

iPoker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.20 BB (6 handed) - iPoker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($33.64)
BB ($59.08)
UTG ($15.60)
MP ($34.24)
Hero (CO) ($62.58)
Button ($23.01)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, 8
2 folds, Hero bets $0.70, 2 folds, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.50) 6, K, 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1, BB raises to $3, Hero raises to $7, BB calls $4

Turn: ($15.50) 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $10, BB calls $10

River: ($35.50) 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $44.88 (All-In)

Total pot: $35.50


like/dislike?

if he folds show/dont show?

[Trashcona]

Unless villain was playing with his/her hand face up, this looks mighty spewy to me.

[eragotte]

What can he have that he can profitably call river with? He doesn't know Im a spewtard so AK is doubtfully +EV call from what he knows of me... Flop is the biggest spew imo but then turn and river I like. Im open for feedback though since I do this like 5x more often then I should...

[spoonitnow]

Being able to put your opponents on a range and post stats along with a HH is usually a prerequisite to making shitty multi-street bluffs that don't make any sense and then trying to defend them.

[Outlaw]

[eragotte]

u guys r boring.

[xX zorrito Xx]

if you're gonna try to make a play to keep this guy honest then do it right... 3-bet to 10 bucks ont he flop...

if he calls then you could've simply check folded or check called on a heart turn...

otherwise i see no reason to bet the turn or shove the river at all... he's not going anywhere and believes his hand is good...

[pocketfours]

Worst bluff of the year, but then again it's only January. :/

[XTR1000]

It´s not about whether or not a bluff could be working.

[bigspenda73]

put me in the minority

[bigspenda73]

although I think call flop + raise turn + jam river is better

[volnandes]

I think you'll suicide...

[Donachello]

I do this kind of thing every now an then but I feel like it's only ever +EV if you have a very good read on the villain. As no stats or any range was given I think this play is pretty The one good thing I do notice is that you consistently repped something like AA the entire way. So *shrug*

[eragotte]

although I think call flop + raise turn + jam river is better

i reraise flop not trying to get a fold at all, i just think it looks strong to raise so small at micros. at 50nl+ i see how calls working

to everyone who says no stats its bad, then every play i make is bad because i dont use hud. i posted a read, hes scared money and he isnt calling without a good set, which he has like never. do people think his range is wider than KJ-AK other than some worse shit that drops the turn... u think he plays 66 like this?

[Dex]

to everyone who says no stats its bad, then every play i make is bad because i dont use hud. i posted a read, hes scared money and he isnt calling without a good set, which he has like never. do people think his range is wider than KJ-AK other than some worse shit that drops the turn... u think he plays 66 like this?

I don't hate it in principle, but you've given us a read that is a whole lot of assumption, some of it a little tenuous, and I really think you're being too optimistic in thinking he rarely if ever has a set in this spot.

But if you think this is how you get him off a strong K, then go with what you think. If you're raising the flop I'd still raise a little bigger, otherwise if I was going to do something like this I'd flat the flop and c/r the turn as spenda said.

[eragotte]

ya flop 4bet is probably small

[surviva316]

i'm not thrilled with the hand, but i think a lot of people are going "OMG YOU SUX AT POKER" without putting much thought into what's wrong with it (p4's is obv excluded from this).

1. you vastly underestimate the probability that he's going to flat the flop 3b with 66/55, 65s given there are like exactly 2 PSB's left behind on a dry board. in fact, the fact that he's scared money may make him feel wary that 4b'ing this deep with bottom set might manipulate your range so that you don't have much left that he dominates.

2. i really don't like your flop 3b sizing. not 'cause zomg it's so unconventional and it doesn't make me feel right, but because it leaves behind such a bluffy looking bet on the river that doesn't look like it was planned for value at all. if you wanna make a smallish 3b size like you did, i'd PSB turn and shove river. as played, you've polarized your range to the extent that villain might think that KJ=55 and snap you off with any TP (though i doubt scared money c/r's KJ all that much in the first place)

3. it's 25nl, we have 3 outs which are dirty against at least 1/2 of his likely range, and we just got c/r'ed by a weak-tight opponent on a dry board. don't get me wrong, our hand is still pretty strong on the flop when he gives us a retarded price IP (in other words, spenda's plan i like if we pick up any kind of equity on the turn), but our line's gonna get us into a world of hurt a lot more often than we'd like. i REALLY wouldn't expect villain to fold AK in this spot any more than 50% of the time (though i'm really confused as to why you think it's so likely he has AK, yet don't even mention 87s).

i'm not trying to bash you, i just thought i'd actually share some thoughts on the hand instead of just a bunch of facepalm emoticons.

[surviva316]

forgot to mention that you definitely should not show if/when he folds. you're gonna make money from this player by keeping him as predictable as possible, not from trying to set over set him because you tilted him in an eariler hand

[eragotte]

surviva316 your post is pretty sweet, not gonna lie, i appreciate the feedback. He actually folded 55 on the river which made me know I analyzed something wrong although I won somehow. I agree with most of what you said, just not him having 87, i guarantee 100% he flats my 1$ there, no way he wants to make the pot any bigger than necessary with a draw. As far as potting the turn im not sure about that just because he could still reraise the turn and i dont think he is a deep enough thinker to realize im not leaving myself an ideal river bullet

[Micro2Macro]

Something to note is when he calls your flop raise his range is strong, he's just feeding you rope. Sick that you can push him off a set tho :P I'd just let this go unless you've got a read he's c/r'ing you with a wide enough range to make the flop raise profitable. As played, I don't think barreling the turn is a good idea, though might be better if you pick up some equity (i.e fd/sd), though there could be an argument for checking back when you pick up that equity as well. If you do bet this turn though I think you need to follow up the river to get him off his Kx hands (if he even has any in his range at that point)

[eragotte]

pretend i call his reraise on flop to re-evaluate, turn comes 7h and he checks, whats your play?

Something to note is when he calls your flop raise his range is strong, he's just feeding you rope

ye this is a good point, especially when there's no fd

[Fnord]

Flop is good.

Bet $12 on the turn to set-up a better river shove.

Don't show.

[Vrax]

Am I the only one who thinks that villain has no 4's in his range and will muck nearly his entire range on the river?

[bigspenda73]

it's not like we have any 4's in our range either but we can theoretically have backdoored a strong hand after bluffing flop plus we can have sets while he can pretty much only have 55/66/56/78/AA/AK and his turn action makes it more likely he has 78/Kx/AA than the sets.

[eragotte]

imo more like 55/56/Kx...just with villain reads he c/c's 87 a lot more than he c/r's flop (obv not always though) and 3bets aa pre. also 66 is less likely to me because of timing showing he is worried, if he has kq hes worried about ak/55/66/kk/aa, if he has ak worried bout 55/66/kk/aa and when he has 55 hes mostly scared of 66 maybe kk, if he has 66 i dont think he thinks so hard