25NL: AA Scary board Vs weak/tight opponent. Pot control?

[Pelion]

Villain is a weak/tightish 20/10. I expect him to have PPs almost always when he calls the flop and maybe some high Ax hands, and the board is so scary I feel im getting crushed in big pots. My plan is to check/call the turn and checkfold the river since I dont expect him to 2 barrel with mid PPs and I dont expect him to flat KK/QQ or maybe even JJ pre. goot?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($25)
SB ($12.20)
BB ($24.65)
UTG ($27.35)
Hero (MP) ($37.60)
CO ($21.20)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A, A
1 fold, Hero bets $1, CO calls $1, 1 fold, SB calls $0.90, 1 fold

Flop: ($3.25) 2, 3, 4 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2, CO calls $2, 1 fold

Turn: ($7.25) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $4, Hero calls $4

River: ($15.25) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks/folds to a non ridiculous bet.

[Outlaw]

Bet fold the turn?

[Arjonius]

That's not a particularly scary board. Yes, there could be a straight or straight draw out there on the flop, but consider what hands he would have had to call with pre-flop. And the turn doesn't really change that.

I call the shove. If he has a set, so be it. But I expect to see a middle pair fairly often.

[Carroters]

I think b/f the turn is better.

He's weak tight so I think he has a ton of pairs that aren't sets in his range that he'll check back due to also viewing the board as scary and being weak tight. He'll probably call a bet with these though and then you can safely c/f most rivers.

I don't really like c/c because his calling range figures to be wider than his betting range imo.

Ohh yeah, we don't need to pot control, because it's not like we have trouble folding if he starts raising/betting. Yeah we get killed in big pots; but since there's still some value in betting the turn here I think this makes an even better case for b/f. When we b/f, we get the turn bet in vs a weaker range than when we c/c I think = more equitys and we don't need to fear getting out played on the river like ever vs this guy. After we b/f turn his range on the river will consist of nut hands and hands with showdown value that don't want to bluff so c/f is awesome.

As played c/f river for sure vs this guy.

[Pelion]

That's not a particularly scary board.

Its not scary to me. The only hands im worried about are sets (which often raise the flop), 55, and the verrrrry occasional A5s or 45/56s. This hand is more about gaining the most we can when we are ahead against a weak/tight player with a weak range when our range and line look strong. Minimising our losses would be a nice bonus, but its not my main concern yet.

I call the shove.

What hand are you reading? o.O

I don't really like c/c because his calling range figures to be wider than his betting range imo.

This is the key to the hand. I figure a player I have pegged as weak/tight is not going to be calling 2 barrels here with a hand like 88. The same player will however often (incorrectly) bet for protection against my face up AK when I check. I may be wrong about him betting a mid pair here though and thats kinda why i posted it. Finally, if he does check behind I can b/f the river and get a lot of calls from 88 when the river is not an A,K,Q,(J)?

[Carroters]

Yeah I mean it defo depends which sort of weak tight player he is. Some will be fit or fold and will fold pairs to like on overcard but then be blinded by an overpair as unfoldable to just 2 barrels on this board.

Some are just super weak tight and will fold 88 here.

Go with your instincts on how he plays his range imo. I just think typically weak tights love the chance to try to get to showdown here and think "good he didnt bet again."

If he's a protection moneky that folds to a turn barrell then yeah your line looks really good.

About your last point: yeah b/f iver would be good provided no overcards fall, but if he's at all likely to call the turn I think you should be getting the 2nd street of value in there since an overcard will hit the river a fair amount of the time and kill off what's left of your action. A K Q J and 5 all suck after the turn checks through.

[sarbox68]

Even weak tight he could easily be doing this w/ TT+. And he’s not even for sure going to get jiggy with a set. By the turn you beat 77+. I’d prolly bet/fold the turn as a dbl barrel is likely to kick out a weak tight w/ broadway overs or medium pp who’s willing to float the flop. If he calls your turn bet, I’d prolly see range of TT-KK (don’t know if this guy 3bets pre at all) that I beat and 22-66,99 that I lose to (if we assume he’d stay for two w/ 99 ovrpr) That’s 21 combos I’m losing to, and 24 I’m beating. If he’s really weak (ie. not calling 2 streets w/ anything less than JJ+) then that’s like, what, 18 losing to 18 winning… so I’m still calling a PSB on the river. All this being said, I don’t think AA is a big pot hand vs this guy on this board. And I’m not happy having to play it OOP for 3 streets….

[rpm]

I think b/f the turn is better.

He's weak tight so I think he has a ton of pairs that aren't sets in his range that he'll check back due to also viewing the board as scary and being weak tight. He'll probably call a bet with these though and then you can safely c/f most rivers.

I don't really like c/c because his calling range figures to be wider than his betting range imo.

Ohh yeah, we don't need to pot control, because it's not like we have trouble folding if he starts raising/betting. Yeah we get killed in big pots; but since there's still some value in betting the turn here I think this makes an even better case for b/f. When we b/f, we get the turn bet in vs a weaker range than when we c/c I think = more equitys and we don't need to fear getting out played on the river like ever vs this guy. After we b/f turn his range on the river will consist of nut hands and hands with showdown value that don't want to bluff so c/f is awesome.

As played c/f river for sure vs this guy.

i really like this analysis. takes into account opponent tendencies and exploitation on a level which i think sets the bigger winners apart from the 12/10ish ABC TAGs at these stakes.

[Da GOAT]

b/f, b/f