10NL : Facing overbet on river with set on scary board

[Evilpopcorn]

Villian Stats : (VP$IP/PFR/AF 3-bet%)

BTN: 33/14/4 0% over 122 hands.

My Thoughts And Questions

Preflop, flop, and turn all standard for me.

River is a definite check for me and then if he bets i am left with a decsion if he fires.

Interesting how he over bets the river. This feel so much like a sucker play to me.

I think any marginal made hands (including marginal relative to the board like two pairs) would some of the time bet smaller to try get some value, but mostly check behind. So his range is for me Jx or air (busted flush draw).

Fold ?

Party $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players

Hero (BB): $10.44
CO: $4.85
BTN: $7.56
SB: $10.37

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with Q Q
1 fold, BTN calls $0.10, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.35, BTN calls $0.25

Flop: ($0.75) 9 Q 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.56, BTN calls $0.56

Turn: ($1.87) K (2 players)
Hero bets $1.40, BTN calls $1.40

River: ($4.67) T (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $5.25, Hero?

[Gobbatino]

I raise more pre, .45-.50. Call depending on villain's WTS%/W$SD/river aggression/frequency. 4 is quite high aggro, if that carries over to his river aggression then I can make a crying call I think. The overbet just looks so bluffy.

[spoonitnow]

Where is your own analysis?

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...in-t87954.html

[surviva316]

def raise more pre, especially given villain's preflop stats

River is a definite check for me and then if he bets i am left with a decsion if he fires.

why? i'd think a fishy player is happy to call a 2/3 PSB on the river with KQ, KT, K9, slowplayed AK and any slowplayed sets, but once he bets all those hands become far less likely. i'm not certain that a bet is correct (though i'm pretty sure we're good against his calling range), but c/c is an obviously inferior way to get value from your hand (unless you have a read that he bluffs missed draws, but a lot of his draws hit anyway, so...).

in other words, your choices, imo, are b/f 2/3 or less or c/f. c/eval doesn't seem like the right play, as you suggested