2/4 KQx situation (cmon folks this is rly interesting)

[Renton]

Seat 1: Viet Punisher ($379.15), is sitting out
Seat 3: sweet n sick ($561.55)
Seat 4: Syous ($558.95)
Seat 5: Octopus8 ($149)
Seat 6: loloPOZZEDu ($436)
Syous posts the small blind of $2
loloPOZZEDu posts the big blind of $4
The button is in seat #3

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to loloPOZZEDu []

sweet n sick folds
Syous raises to $12
loloPOZZEDu calls $8

*** FLOP *** [4h Qd Ks]

Syous bets $16
loloPOZZEDu calls $16

*** TURN *** [4h Qd Ks] [6s]

Syous bets $45
loloPOZZEDu calls $45

*** RIVER *** [4h Qd Ks 6s] [3c]

Syous bets $134
loloPOZZEDu calls $134


Villain is a 2p2er, and his steal percent over the past 20-25 hands or so has been over 90%. He doesn't know me, but lets be real, my sn reeks of tag.

Tell me in your estimation:

1) Villain's bet range on turn.
2) The weakest made hand we call turn with.
3) Villain's bet range on river.
4) The weakest made hand we call river with.

[Kid Style]

1) QQ+,66,44,A7s+,A5s,A3s-A2s,KJs+,QTs+,75s,64s,53s,AKo,KJo+,75o,64o,53o
2) 1010
3) KK-QQ,66,44,AJs-A7s,A5s,A3s-A2s,KQs,JTs,75s,64s,53s,KQo,JTo,75o,64o,53o
4)Q10

I like this thinking game, but i don't know if I have the guts to make it this far with Q10 though.

And there is a problem. How is Octopus8 in between the blinds?

Villains bet range on the turn is like everything in the world because holy shit that board hits his range

so the hands he can't have is like medium strength type of crap that he would c/c on the turn with the intention of folding a blank river, which is his "B" range that benefits from more passive play
so he can have his A,C,D ranges because c/fing 88 here is kind of meh since it looks like you'd be betting the turn instead of checking something worse down

what you can't have is the top of your range unless you're slowplaying 44
you probably don't have AK or KQ because you'd raise pf or on the flop respectively
so you're calling with your B range, and probably raising the turn with your C range which is like flush draws and possibly JT
which probably means you could also semi-bluff the turn with QJ hoping 5 outs are good since generally we play our C range the same
so our worst hand in our calling range is probably KT

so his river bet/call range is like his nuts
his B range is what he bet/folds so maybe AK if he feels like we'd go c/c,c/c,c/shove with 44 or maybe KQ
his C range would c/call to catch random spew, so maybe Kx
his D range he probably wouldn't bet as a bluff, he would c/f those because he would have to hope for us to have KJ/KT AND fold it
or he would have to hope for us to have a flush or straight draw and not raise it at any point in the hand

seems like we could have KQ and decide to call if we think he's going to like fold AK to a river raise
some people will probably say we should be callling KJ/KT and that's probably OK
but I just think opening from the SB is usually tighter because it's just so easy for BB to 3b light IP

but if villain is a retard like me, we should call Kx and Qx

[Renton]

how thinly does he valuebet his marginal made hands on turn?

[Kid Style]

how thinly does he valuebet his marginal made hands on turn?

Now that I think about it, I think villain only bets the $45 amount with AK as far as marginal hands go. He probably bets less ($35-40) with other marginal hands such as KJ and so forth.

To add to this as well, I think villain would probably bet less ($35-$40) on turn with sets if he thinks you might have picked up a flush draw with pair of Queens( like AsQs ) and probably induce a C/R.

[Marshall28]

And there is a problem. How is Octopus8 in between the blinds?

[Da GOAT]

Ok ill give this a shot plus ive read nobodys replies yet.

We can take it that since he may open 90% of hands ie he will pretty much open everything. I think its important to assume he will cb almost 100% of hands also since so few hands have much value either for showdown or value. I doubt he is aware enough of his opening range that he should actually lower he cb % alot given his opening range vs a thinking opponent.

So he cb flop, thats fine. His range hasnt really changed much at all so we can call here with pretty much any pair and all A high holdings. Our range is still quite wide here so could be vulnerable to some barrels even though this board doesnt lend itself well to people who barrel (ie board texture really isnt going to get worse for the caller so barrelling shouldnt be good) however it is SB vs BB so there is always an increased % of barrelling for ego sake.

So imo opp's turn betting range on a 4h Qd Ks 6s is something like;
53,32,75,4x,Qx,Kx,87,85,52, JT, AT,AJ, T9, J9, Ax etc. Basically all gutshots, OESD draws, sets, 2 pair, All flush draws. What im getting at is roughly his range is weighted more towards air/draws than value hand (note 4x will probably barrel given OOP).

Our calling range on turn is;
All A high hands have showdown value, we could float turn again looking to bluff a river with GS (most of our GS are A high ones or are T or J high), JT, we can call all flush draws which are J or T high easily (which has showdown value) or float lower flush draws looking to bluff river, call with all pairs 6x+. We should note our range looks very weak when calling turn.

Opp betting range on river is so so dependant on opp but lets say he thinks we are still weak and we fold everything but Kx (since we have no sets or 2 pairs in our range now). So we do have alot of hands he can fold out since Kx is a small part of our range. Thus a river bet is hugely profitable. So his river betting range is pretty much the same as his turn betting range except where he may just check down small pairs now.

So our calling range can pretty much be A high or better, J and T high would be sick sick calls which in reality probably wont happen.

This post is probably very extreme, but if opp is aggro, hero is a nittish, no history at all, and obv we cant use this process if the situation arise again vs opp.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

My turn and river calling ranges are pretty similar when i'm playing readless poker. Gonna be like any K on turn and maybe like KJ or better on the river. Given how wide you think his range is preflop though im probably not folding Q on the turn either and im keeping AJ and AT too.

You shouldn't be thinking about hands based on vague thoughts alone. BUT If you're only getting stats and vague thoughts about a player because you're playing a shitload of tables, then you have to find more balanced (unexploitable) strategies on these types of hands. This may involved some folding of turns because your river decisions can't involve any timing, individual reads on betting patterns, or bet size. Or doing stuff like folding or raising bottom pair on some flops just because it makes a range to weak. Or leading 88 on K22 flop in a 3-bet pot and stacking off because you think it's breakeven and it makes your checking range stronger. These can be viable options if you want to play this type of poker. This type of poker can be more profitable then a more individually focused version. But let's recognize that these are not the same things.

[Renton]

well i wasn't massively mting or not paying attn. I only have 20 hands of history vs this guy and we haven't played postflop. I just know he's 2p2 from his name.

[IowaSkinsFan]

I agree with Max on ranges here. Although I'd only call the river with 64 or better.

I think this would be a great spot for villain to overbet as a bluff.

[bjsaust]

I see some good players have responded, but I'll post my thoughts blind and then I can compare:

1) Villain's bet range on turn.

Always: AK, KQ, KJ, TJ, AsXs, 57 (53 he would but not sure thats in his 60% ATS range), all sets, AA.
Usually: AJ, AT, any two spades.
Sometimes: Random air, QX, KX

2) The weakest made hand we call turn with.
QJ maybe? I'm going to assume 2+2'er will 2 barrel fairly light and lots of draws. Although since I expect him to check back most QX hands, I guess even Q9 isnt much different than QJ here.

3) Villain's bet range on river.
I think he's probably polarised here. His med-strong hands are more likely to c/c incase we bluff. AK, QK for sure, maybe KJ, then some bluffs TJ, and say 57. All sets and AA obviously.

4) The weakest made hand we call river with.[/quote]
Because of bluffs we could call with decent KX hands, I guess. Theoretially we could call with QX too, but it seems like sometimes he turns up with crap KX stuff.

[Renton]

I agree with Max on ranges here. Although I'd only call the river with 64 or better.

I think this would be a great spot for villain to overbet as a bluff.

so you are ok with folding 90%+ of your range on the river without reads?

The way I see it KJ and Q9 are roughly the same hand here (actually Q9 is possibly stronger due to not blocking JT/AJ). We make it to the river with all Kx and possibly Qx. We sometimes raise flop with KQ 44. His value bet range on the river is AK and better minimum, but I suppose its possible for him to have a couple of worse kings.

I think he automatically bets turn with all spades, JT and probably gutters too. So these are the air combos he makes it to the river with.

As it is becoming obvious, the dilemma I'm trying to discuss is how one should play the made hands <64. As I see it we have three options:

1) Assume villain is bluffing the correct frequency or less and fold entire range. (this is apparently ISF's choice)

2) Assume villain is bluffing more than that and call with entire range, then adjust. (this is what I chose, I had Q9)

3) Assume nothing of villain and call with a certain percentage of those hands to avoid exploitation. (like maybe call all Kx, fold worse, or maybe call with every hand that doesn't contain A, J, or T [that block gutters/JT])


To try to defend my play, 2) is the only one of those with a lot of metagame benefit, so there's that. Also, If he c/f's river every time with spades, AJ, AT, 98, w/e, and always bets AK+ and JT, its a call.

I just raise Q9 on flop or turn because I don't consider it a strong hand here, but rather a hand that benefits from overrepping it by making villain fold better

[Numbr2intheWorld]

well i wasn't massively mting or not paying attn. I only have 20 hands of history vs this guy and we haven't played postflop. I just know he's 2p2 from his name.

right. My point was though that learning how to play against unknowns i dont think is a good exercise.

[Parasurama]

well i wasn't massively mting or not paying attn. I only have 20 hands of history vs this guy and we haven't played postflop. I just know he's 2p2 from his name.

right. My point was though that learning how to play against unknowns i dont think is a good exercise.

you're saying learning how to play against unknowns isn't a good exercise? Not questioning you, it's just your wording wasn't clear

[Marshall28]

You shouldn't be thinking about hands based on vague thoughts alone. BUT If you're only getting stats and vague thoughts about a player because you're playing a shitload of tables, then you have to find more balanced (unexploitable) strategies on these types of hands. This may involved some folding of turns because your river decisions can't involve any timing, individual reads on betting patterns, or bet size. Or doing stuff like folding or raising bottom pair on some flops just because it makes a range to weak. Or leading 88 on K22 flop in a 3-bet pot and stacking off because you think it's breakeven and it makes your checking range stronger. These can be viable options if you want to play this type of poker. This type of poker can be more profitable then a more individually focused version. But let's recognize that these are not the same things.

It's not even the same game IMO.

[Da GOAT]

Im with renton here, I think we agree our turn calling range and river calling range are similiar since opp betting range can likely be same on turn and river.

BJ, just a critic here - Your calling range is very very tight imo. Try to consider what 'air' means when you post it as part of a range, remember sometimes it makes up 10% of someones range or 50% of a range. Try figure out his 'air' range which can especially be a gutter.

Anyone have thoughts on my addition above, perhaps a slightly extreme example but does fit into the theme of the thread imo.

[bjsaust]

In my defence, ISF's calling range was 2P or better .

I guess this is where Max's point about knowing opponents helps. I assume theres some air here from any reg, but it could be huge. You think all/most regs would barrel turn with all/most gutshots?

So far at 200nl I've found barrelling ranges to be much tighter than I expected, but its entirely possible I just keep running into the top of peoples ranges due to short term variance.