1/2 QQ hits top set, facing turn/riv leads

[bspahn]

Guy is NOT a reg, don't know much about him.
stats I have 37/15/2.7

Flop is super great obv, nevertheless I bet. Now just in looking at it again I should be betting near pot here $14-$15 so thats a mistake admitted.

turn doesnt seem terrible (heart would be worse imo), but he leads, and kinda weak. Can I assume he might do this with a draw, suited broadways type stuff? Do you pump it up here every time and if you do obv you can't fold. I decide to flat and re-eval river. Great a blank. But now he leads super strong. Because a smallish bet followed by a large bet from presumibly a fishy type player, I decided it wasn't great to shove here and just called.

How do you play it?

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG lahlpoker ($200.00)
UTG+1 Hero ($232.00)
CO WinnerAAAA ($194.75)
BTN Big-gum ($261.90)
SB gupiromeo ($255.00)
BB OneM@nShow ($200.00)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is UTG+1
1 fold, Hero raises to $7, 2 folds, gupiromeo calls $6, 1 fold

Flop: ($16, 2 players)
gupiromeo checks, Hero bets $11, gupiromeo calls $11

Turn: ($38, 2 players)
gupiromeo bets $16, Hero calls $16

River: ($70, 2 players)
gupiromeo bets $57, Hero calls $57

Final Pot: $184

[Marshall28]

I think not raising to get it in on the turn is bad. He made a weakish bet which could signify any number of different things. Maybe he made 2pr w/ AT or A3, maybe his NFD just made top pair. Your hand is too strong and has plenty of equity the random times you're behind.

As played just call river I guess.

[Parasurama]

I feel like this is 2pair, maybe even one pair aces more often than a straight. Do you think he's calling a shove with AQ? I would raise the turn though because his hand looks like a big draw after the c/c donk.

[bspahn]

okay, say we are ahead in this spot and we raise the turn, what do you like for sizing? i figured around 70 is good because if called we can shove maybe 140 ish into 175 on riv?

we are SLIGHTLY deep, do you think that changes how easily he wants to get it in on the turn?

I think not raising to get it in on the turn is bad. He made a weakish bet which could signify any number of different things. Maybe he made 2pr w/ AT or A3, maybe his NFD just made top pair. Your hand is too strong and has plenty of equity the random times you're behind.

As played just call river I guess.

I don't see why we're only calling river as played, we're crushing his value range and I don't think he's going to fold a lot of hands he's betting for value
he might slowplay TT/33 on the flop, have two pair on the turn or he could have caught two pair on the river if he has like Ah4h

we have the third nuts and villain has a really wide range
I think he's going to call a shove incorrectly with a lot of hands

[IowaSkinsFan]

Who cares about river, ship the turn obv.

[Sir Pawnalot]

Sorry if I am wrong, but this is a prank right?

[Muzzard]

How big a downswing are you on?

[griffey24]

Guy is NOT a reg.....37/15/2.7
turn doesnt seem terrible ...... he leads, and kinda weak...

I mean.. it's all right here. You said it yourself.

After his sizing, raise here all day. If he makes it 36ish, maybe its a closer decision, but he didn't bet strong, he bet weak.

[bspahn]

okay I agree that we want to get it in on the turn here because we're just crushing too much. I guess the fact that we are slightly deep is pretty much irrelevant right.

obv he had KJ, and obv i'm 2.7k behind EV this month on 16k hands.