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I don't think this is so bad. I mean, what can he have when does the weak lead followed by the solid 3bet on the flop?
Btw, your flop raise is below half pot size - not really pricing out any draws. Considering that, it's strange that he raises - his draws get good odds to just call.
Ok, his possible hands and our equity against them.
97: Runner/runner to improve. First card must be spade (10 cards), ace (2), or pair the board (8). Second card must be another spade or 10 outs to quads/FH or four outs to quads/FH. You probably have around 8%. He won't call 97 every time he sits down so let's just call it 4 combos and we'll pretend it's the suited ones.
ss: He doesn't know we have one of the spades so he has 8 outs not 9 - and if he hits the flush we can hit a better flush. So we need to either fade 8 outs twice or hitting one of the 8, subsequently hit one of 7. This leaves us around 68% equity. Since As is not available for him there's probably 12ish combos of flush draws for him - some of them combo draws where he has better equity.
J9/75: We need to fade 8 outs twice, we have no blockers, but we do have running spades so we're about 68% here. Like 75 we're talking maybe 4 combos of each.
T8,86: 5 outs to trips or a better two pair on turn, 8 on the river. Running spades. In case of running spades fade the 8s. About 30%. Probably 3 and 2 combos respectively.
TT/88/66: 2 outs to better set, running spades fading 7 and 10 outs to FH/quads - around 13%. 3 combos each
Against this range we're crushed or seriously behind 20ish combos and slightly ahead of 20ish combos.
If we know nothing about him (poster yeah I know) we kind of have to give him credit for a hand and the variance reducing fold to the flop 3bet seems best.
The only thing that makes me want to shove here is that we have the As - if we didn't have that I'd fold here very often. As alone is 2-6% equity against the different parts of the opponents range. If I could put more air and more draws in his range I'd be more inclined to go with it.
The thing that makes me want to fold is that we may have folded 17 overpairs recently - but our opponent doesn't know that. That fact only exists in our head and shouldn't affect the current hand. The villain can't know that our puny flop raise is an overpair because we are scared of once again being blasted off our overpair on the flop and want to keep the price cheap.
Fact is that if we're behind we're quite a lot behind - if we're ahead we're not that much ahead - and we're probably not ahead twice as often as we're behind, making it unlikely that we're a favourite. We might be a slight dog and thus +EV to get all-in with the dead money already in the pot, but the dead money is just $1.6 of our money and with a pot size if we both go all-in of $20 we need to win 8.4/20=42% of the time or more for getting all-in to be +EV.
I guess we probably should fold. We have solid equity if his range includes many draws, but if he's folding anything here it's the draws in his range. We're only good to shove here if he calls with 7c5c every time (and has it in his range every time already) or raises like this sometimes with air and folds. If he folds the draws that we're ahead of he's giving up 2% equity so it's better for us if he folds.
I went and added a few more hands (77, 87 type hands) and stoved a range:
Code:
68,310 games 0.005 secs 13,662,000 games/sec
Board: Ts 8d 6s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.454% 50.97% 00.48% 34818 330.50 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 48.546% 48.06% 00.48% 32831 330.50 { TT-66, KsQs, KsJs, Ks9s, Ks8s, Ks7s, QsJs, Qs9s, Qs8s, Qs7s, J9s, Js8s, Js7s, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 75s+ }
I think that's honestly an optimistic range and that a fold is correct. Or to put it strangely, I think our mistake in raising the flop too small makes it correct for us to fold here. If we take out the hands that are little more than pair+gutshot we drop to 35% equity. If we then include the offsuit two-gappers J9-75 that make OESDs, straights and 2pair we end up at 40% equity. It really isn't possible to make a strong case for us having the EV to get all-in with our overpair considering the action to the 3bet.
Ironically while I like the As in our hand it means that our opponent is closer to correct to fold to our shove if he has a draw. If we had the Ad instead and we shoved the opponent would be making a bigger mistake to fold than in the present situation. So if we think he calls draws here we want the As because it gives us an equity advantage, but if we think he folds draws here almost always the equity we gain from As when he calls with a hand that crushes us might not be bigger than the equity we lose in the pots we take down. That said - it would have to be a pretty extreme case for that factor to come out that way. All my numbers right now line up so that even if it does count in the opposite direction it's still an overall net gain to have the As.
I don't think stacking off here is a big mistake - especially not if there is a chance the guy is an idiot (and a willingness to stack off with a lower overpair helps also, but he'd have to have called it preflop in the first case rather than 3bet), but I think it's more correct in this case to fold. I think the flop raise should have been bigger - to $1.65 or so, and that might have made the all-in decision marginal on the side of getting all-in.
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WTF Am I doing.
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(2 players)
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
