50NL pair+FD - bet sizing question.

[oskar]

No history with SB - only 8 hands so far.

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
3 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero (BTN) ($114.00)
SB ($43.25)
BB ($95.55)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 3 players) Hero is BTN
Hero raises to $1.50, SB calls $1.25, BB calls $1

Flop: ($4.50, 3 players)
SB bets $4.50, BB folds, Hero raises to $18, SB calls $13.50

Turn: ($40.50, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $40.50, SB goes all-in $23.75



Kind of self explanatory I guess. I want to avoid a tough spot on the turn if he flats - how did I do?
I guess I should have bet even a little more, but then there are probably a couple of stoopid drawing hands in his flatting range that I'm already ahead of.

What if we were 100bb+ deep - does flatting become the better option? Overbetting even more seriously tilts my range towards exactly what I have.

I'd be very tempted to just shovel on the flop

[griffey24]

Pot size lead on this board into 2 other players is pretty strong. I'm not sure how much fold equity we have here really. I don't even mind flatting this sometimes.

It's obviously never too bad getting it in here though, but as played I think I'd just check back this turn. I can't imagine him folding here ever.

[derekvsmith]

i think that once hes called your reraise on the flop u should check the turn i mean he called with something that mus be pretty decent so let the river decide your move....but thats jus what id do not quite sure if its right :P

[meeloche]

It's not an overbet shove on the turn, sb only has like 23 left.

I would play it the same, I don't think he ever folds the turn which is fine cause he has a bunch of draws in his range as well.

[nutsinho]

id just call flop unless he had less than 70bb

[griffey24]

I would play it the same, I don't think he ever folds the turn which is fine cause he has a bunch of draws in his range as well.

I'd imagine most of his "draws" that he actually calls OOP on flop are better than our hand. JT, 9T, QJ etc.

The only hand he might have that is a draw and worse than ours is like KQdd, and he proabably would have just shipped the flop with that.

[dsaxton]

Once he calls the flop, I'd just check behind on the turn. You're only charging yourself to draw if he has a better hand, and you want weaker draws to see the river.

Edit: I didn't see the guy only has $23 left. It's closer to a bet, but I still may just check behind.

[oskar]

I know he's not folding the turn. I made it 4.5x his raise on the flop so I could just snap the turn - as played I don't want to give him a chance to bluff a blank river with a smaller flushdraw or Tx, which he could if he had half a brain and half a ball.

I was hoping it would leave me with a 1/3psb left, but I suck at math, and it ended up being 1/2, but I guess that's about right.

I don't really get why calling could be > shoving here. We have no history so I might get him to fold tp. If I call and he does have tptk+ I might not see a river if the turn is blank, and weaker draws might bet me out of the pot.

[nutsinho]

i cant remember the last time i folded a flush draw before the river.

[griffey24]

I don't really get why calling could be > shoving here. We have no history so I might get him to fold tp. If I call and he does have tptk+ I might not see a river if the turn is blank, and weaker draws might bet me out of the pot.

Why can't you call down in position? You conceivably have at least 12 outs on each street and maybe even 15. Given the implied odds of hitting your hand, you have good odds to just call down assuming he's betting pot or less on every street.

The value of raising a draw like this is for fold equity and to get better hands to fold. Given his sizing/strength shown here I don't think you have much fold equity at all. If his hand was face up and you saw he had QT, JT, J9, 888 or any hand that you wouldn't expect him to fold on the flop, would you raise him? He might as well be showing you his hand with his flop line......

[Alexos]

I don't really like raising when he pots flop on this board, but if I do raise, i wanna make sure i can follow it up with a decent sized bet on the turn, so make it 15-16$ on flop.

Raising big to "pot commit yourself" is not as logical as it first seems.