Hand Review please - AA facing 3bet shove on flop

[lytstephe]

No read on opponents since I was MTTing...

Full Tilt Poker $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players - View hand 88015
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $3.99
BB: $9.90
CO: $5.00
Hero (BTN): $14.03

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with A A
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.30, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.90) 8 9 5 (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $0.80, Hero raises to $2, SB folds, BB raises to $7, Hero folds

At the time I thought he must have had a str8/set or at least 2p to 3bet shove. But now that I looked at it again I think it might not be the case. Any thoughts/reasoning/comments would be appreciated.

[Illfavor]

The hand is fine as played but the reason you have no reads is kinda stupid. If you can't pay attention to something then you probably shouldn't be playing.

Edit: Flop raise is slightly too small imo.

[oskar]

Playing 4 handed and not paying attention to the game will get you in a lot of trouble. I think it's pretty important to pay attention to the dynamic. Without a solid read there is no way I'm getting away from aces on this board... There are like a million draws out there.

[notoriousnf]

Idk about you but I'm snap calling.

[Stacks]

I could most definitely be off here, as I'm in class and really tired. But:

Hand 0: 39.184% { AcAh }
Hand 1: 60.816% { QcQd, QdQh, QhQs, JJ, 99-88, 55, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, JTs, 98s, 76s, JTo, 98o, 76o }

If villain is making this play with sets, two pair, straights, strong flush draws, and weak overpairs, which is a decent assumption I believe. Given his raise size that is obviously committing him, you have 0% FE. To make a call on the raise you need 33% equity. So while a call is supposedly +EV, you obviously don't want to call, as you can't fold on the turn with so little behind. I'd go ahead and put it in.

However, if villain is passive and not b/3betting flush draws or weaker overpairs, then you should probably find a fold.

But to be totally honest with you, I'm rarely 100% certain in these situations. Also, why are we raising the flop bet, if we are intending to fold to a ship? I obviously wouldn't expect villain to bet/call this flop all that often. This flop is indicative of a c/r/call or b/3bet flop when possible. If I felt I was behind villains donking range, then I would make a call, dodge some turns and evaluate. If I felt I was ahead of the range he stacks off with, then I raise and get it in. It seems like with your raise your only intention was to "price out draws" or "protect your hand". Your ahead of his draws and bluffs, and even some weaker hands he donks. You obviously do not want him folding his draws/bluffs/weaker hands.

Idk.. I will return later to discuss some more. Interesting spot that I need to study better.

[Illfavor]

How many players at 10NL are 3betting draw heavy boards with JTo? Seriously though, how often is this done with <2P? If you can please check your databases b/c I don't think I'm way off in wanting to fold here, or putting him on 98, 76, 99, 88, 55, QQ (maybe, but even then I see people simply call down with an overpair and not look to stack off). It's really hard for me to think the random unknown is semibluffing here. Let me put it this way: At 10/25 NL I have never 4bet/stacked off on wet boards facing a semi-bluff. It has always been 2 pair or better.

I post hands like these frequently and am always told to fold, and my experiences tell me we're crushed. Our opponents typically either play their hands face up or slow. What is he saying here?

[lytstephe]

How many players at 10NL are 3betting draw heavy boards with JTo? Seriously though, how often is this done with <2P? If you can please check your databases b/c I don't think I'm way off in wanting to fold here, or putting him on 98, 76, 99, 88, 55, QQ (maybe, but even then I see people simply call down with an overpair and not look to stack off). It's really hard for me to think the random unknown is semibluffing here. Let me put it this way: At 10/25 NL I have never 4bet/stacked off on wet boards facing a semi-bluff. It has always been 2 pair or better.

I post hands like these frequently and am always told to fold, and my experiences tell me we're crushed. Our opponents typically either play their hands face up or slow. What is he saying here?

That was exactly my thought process while I was at the hand. I felt like vomiting after folding but told myself, eh I made a good fold thats why I win because I fold good hands to monsters.

But then when I revisit the hand, something look out of whack from the ordinary... He DONKED the flop!! IMO most of these low stake players will never do that with a set/str8 probably not even 2pairs OOP because of the slowplay mentality. Everytime my overpairs get owned by a set was when was being check-raised after cbetting for value.

So maybe the question is, what does a donk bet mean at this level?


Comments/suggestions/ideas please.

[CBAT]

I am calling immediately. Villian is stacking off with TPTK here often. Also villian could be protection their overpair.

SHIP IT

[St8ofN8]

I think the fold was right here. Seems to me that set or AdXd is the most likely hand you're up against. Maybe the conservative route, but still the right one imo

[Illfavor]

I am calling immediately. Villian is stacking off with TPTK here often. Also villian could be protection their overpair.

SHIP IT

The villain's bet sizing is really great for a strong hand that wants callers...and you think he's doing this with A9? Yes a random opponent may stack off here w/TPTK, but him raising this way with makes it is less likely imo.