AA on wet board

[Illfavor]

Very early in session, and no reads.

PokerStars Pot-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($22.45)
Button ($27.10)
SB ($26.95)
BB ($25.35)
UTG ($40.30)
UTG+1 ($14.95)
MP1 ($55.50)
MP2 ($4.65)
Hero (MP3) ($26.15)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A, A
4 folds, Hero bets $0.75, 1 fold, Button calls $0.75, 1 fold, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($2.35) 6, 9, 5 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2, Button raises to $7, 1 fold, Hero raises to $23.25, Button raises to $26.35 (All-In), Hero calls $2.15 (All-In)

Turn: ($53.15) K (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($53.15) A (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $53.15 | Rake: $2.65

The likelihood he's raising the flop with a FD is low imo, so his range is mostly PPs (overs and sets), combo draws (very few) or a spazzed out TPTK.

In general, I'm not really happy stacking off on this flop. Is call flop, re-eval turn (shoving this one) a better line?

[Micro2Macro]

Without any reads I don't like calling here out of position. I'm a nit though, but your SPR on the flop sucks for AA + you're oop vs unknown. Because of this I think calling and then folding the turn to any aggression is pretty shitty. If anything shove back > calling whereas folding > shoving back.

I fold but I probably won't give much credit to raises on flops like this later in the session after getting some reads.

[speedcake]

how can you fold on the flop with no reads?

Get it in and reload if necessary IMO.

and take a damn note.

[Illfavor]

how can you fold on the flop with no reads?

Get it in and reload if necessary IMO.

and take a damn note.

I appreciate your response but this is the reason I posted this hand. I'm getting out of the "I have overpair and will always stack off on the flop results be damned" thinking and getting into the "how does my hand fair against the average full stacked villains raising/stacking off range on this flop" sort of thinking. And in hindsight, this might be a fold on the flop or some other line besides mine, so I asked for help with my analysis.

[clvacva]

I shove/fold vs the unknown
his button range is what pkt pairs and sc and broadways
dont think he would do this with air
If we call, he will bet the turn and we have to fold unless A hits.
rather get in in with AA on the flop.
btw if this was QQ would you fold

[speedcake]

sorry if you took offense to my post.

What would be your plan on the turn in the event you do call? If you check, isn't he likely to fire again? And knowing that, if you are thinking you are behind on the flop already, then why not just fold the flop?

Even if he slows down and checks the turn back, I still wouldn't be happy. But we may be able to see a cheaper showdown.

Being out of position stinks and he likely knows that. Without better reads and some history I just don't think I could stop myself from stacking off on the flop

[speedcake]

I'm getting out of the "I have overpair and will always stack off on the flop results be damned" thinking .

Also, we aren't talkin about always. We are talking about when you have no read on the guy. I wouldn't advocate stacking off with and overpair with no reason.

that's not to say my reason here doesn't suck. :P

[Carroters]

This is such an awkward spot sicne we don't know anything about villain's tendencies. With some more info I think the decision becomes so much easier.

He's raised you on a drawy flop in a multiway pot. This is pretty damn strong. I fold here I think because we are either completely fucked, or are marginally ahead. Assuming there are loads of draws in his range and he plays them all aggro - his range could look something like this.

[55 66 77 88 99 1010 56s 69s 78s 89s 79s 109s J9s A9 KQc J10c QJc]

We have 60.236% equity vs this range so this would be an easy call. The problem is though imo, this is an unknown at 25NL and he may well take more passvie lines with draws and be more inclined to raise made hands here for protection. This makes me think we can't assume his range is this wdie without reads thats he's aggro, competent and likes to flat lots of scs on the button.

I wouldn't hate a call to be honest sicne there's so many draws. However, we certainly can assume a tighter range than that one I specified so I like folding in the absence of information.

Basically, we are very unilkely to have anymore than 60% equity here vs his range, but the truth is we may have much less.

[Illfavor]

I shove/fold vs the unknown
his button range is what pkt pairs and sc and broadways
dont think he would do this with air
If we call, he will bet the turn and we have to fold unless A hits.
rather get in in with AA on the flop.
btw if this was QQ would you fold

QQ is essentially the same hand here so no.

Speedcake, there was no offense taken to your post it was just lacking in insight, but you clarified well enough, ty. The flop is either call/fold, and in this spot if we can include JJ/TT or A9 in his range I think it's a clear call.

[Illfavor]

This is such an awkward spot sicne we don't know anything about villain's tendencies. With some more info I think the decision becomes so much easier.

He's raised you on a drawy flop in a multiway pot. This is pretty damn strong. I fold here I think because we are either completely fucked, or are marginally ahead. Assuming there are loads of draws in his range and he plays them all aggro - his range could look something like this.

[55 66 77 88 99 1010 56s 69s 78s 89s 79s 109s J9s A9 KQc J10c QJc]

We have 60.236% equity vs this range so this would be an easy call. The problem is though imo, this is an unknown at 25NL and he may well take more passvie lines with draws and be more inclined to raise made hands here for protection. This makes me think we can't assume his range is this wdie without reads thats he's aggro, competent and likes to flat lots of scs on the button.

I wouldn't hate a call to be honest sicne there's so many draws. However, we certainly can assume a tighter range than that one I specified so I like folding in the absence of information.

Basically, we are very unilkely to have anymore than 60% equity here vs his range, but the truth is we may have much less.

Our equity is too strong I think. A range QQ,JJ,99,66,55,A9s,87s gives us approx. 53% equity. This is a cawl. We had great pot odds in this spot after he called the shove. Even if you remove JJ from his range we have the equity needed to call.

[Outlaw]

Very early in session, and no reads.

PokerStars Pot-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($22.45)
Button ($27.10)
SB ($26.95)
BB ($25.35)
UTG ($40.30)
UTG+1 ($14.95)
MP1 ($55.50)
MP2 ($4.65)
Hero (MP3) ($26.15)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A, A
4 folds, Hero bets $0.75, 1 fold, Button calls $0.75, 1 fold, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($2.35) 6, 9, 5 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2, Button raises to $7, 1 fold, Hero raises to $23.25, Button raises to $26.35 (All-In), Hero calls $2.15 (All-In)

Turn: ($53.15) K (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($53.15) A (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $53.15 | Rake: $2.65

The likelihood he's raising the flop with a FD is low imo, so his range is mostly PPs (overs and sets), combo draws (very few) or a spazzed out TPTK.

In general, I'm not really happy stacking off on this flop. Is call flop, re-eval turn (shoving this one) a better line?

After he raised the flop he had put in 30% of his stack.. it would be a mistake for him to lay down any huge draws, pairs, etc. I think this hand is pretty standard.. I think we are winning here a lot more than 50% of the time so I have no problem stacking off.

I think raising 4xbb preflop is better at 25NL btw.. anytime I only raise 3xbb I always get the stupid BB calling me.. which is annoying. And with AA you want as much money in the pot as possible preflop. Just shove over his flop raise, don't just leave yourself $2.. unless that was just an accident.

[Illfavor]

I think raising 4xbb preflop is better at 25NL btw.. anytime I only raise 3xbb I always get the stupid BB calling me.. which is annoying. And with AA you want as much money in the pot as possible preflop. Just shove over his flop raise, don't just leave yourself $2.. unless that was just an accident.

I just tend to open for less in LP. It gets called the same amount (it seems to me) and you're risking less. Table feel sort of thing, and I was "feeling" them out lol.

And yes the flop bet was a mistake. Pstars has changed their slider in the last few weeks (during which I have played no poker) and I'm still adjusting.

Edit: more likely, it's a pot limit table >.>

[Micro2Macro]

Against the range you guys came up with which do you think would yield higher EV?

Shoving back, or calling and seeing a turn, with the intention of calling a shove.

Is A9s really in his range here? We have a blocker to the nut flush draw and raising that size with a shitty top/top would be ridiculous. I think something like KcQc or KcJc is more likely than A9s here given the action.

[Fnord]

Standard.

[Illfavor]

Against the range you guys came up with which do you think would yield higher EV?

Shoving back, or calling and seeing a turn, with the intention of calling a shove.

Is A9s really in his range here? We have a blocker to the nut flush draw and raising that size with a shitty top/top would be ridiculous. I think something like KcQc or KcJc is more likely than A9s here given the action.

There is really no legitmate range I can give the unknown that makes this a fold on the flop.

And yes, TPTK is in his range at least some of the time. Marginal "good hands" here like TT and A9 show up here often enough imo. Maybe not all the combos, but even removing it and adding a overs+drawing hand doesn't hurt our equity enough. I think getting it on the flop is best.

[speedcake]

Standard.

you mean as played, given the information we have. correct?

[lockpull]

Against the range you guys came up with which do you think would yield higher EV?

Shoving back, or calling and seeing a turn, with the intention of calling a shove.

I'm going to throw my answer out there mainly to see if my thinking is skewed on this (normaly I would just shove this like OP did but your question got me thinking and this is what I came up with) ......
I think calling the flop to see a turn would be the better. But that is dependant on if "with the intention of calling a shove" means no matter what card comes down we call or if it means depending on turn card we call the shove. If a blank card comes we may be able to take him off of his hand which I would be more than happy to take this down on the turn and move on. In that range there are quite a few hands that have AA beat and others that we are basically flipping by getting it all in on the flop. And by shoving the flop we are taking away our chance to reevaluate the turn and decide if we want to invest the rest of our stack with AA on this board. As I said, I am mainly putting this out there to see if my thinking is totally off base or not deep enough. I too am trying to get out fo the mentality of ohhhh Overpair lets stack and this is a great questionfor that.

[Illfavor]

Against the range you guys came up with which do you think would yield higher EV?

Shoving back, or calling and seeing a turn, with the intention of calling a shove.

I'm going to throw my answer out there mainly to see if my thinking is skewed on this (normaly I would just shove this like OP did but your question got me thinking and this is what I came up with) ......
I think calling the flop to see a turn would be the better. But that is dependant on if "with the intention of calling a shove" means no matter what card comes down we call or if it means depending on turn card we call the shove. If a blank card comes we may be able to take him off of his hand which I would be more than happy to take this down on the turn and move on. In that range there are quite a few hands that have AA beat and others that we are basically flipping by getting it all in on the flop. And by shoving the flop we are taking away our chance to reevaluate the turn and decide if we want to invest the rest of our stack with AA on this board. As I said, I am mainly putting this out there to see if my thinking is totally off base or not deep enough. I too am trying to get out fo the mentality of ohhhh Overpair lets stack and this is a great questionfor that.

Your analysis is correct but its faults stem from not thinking about commitment. Putting in 1/3 of our stack and folding the turn sucks. Also, we don't know what a safe card is. His range is hands we smash, hands that smash us, and possible drawing hands. If the 2 of clubs comes on the turn and he shoves, are you folding? If a 4, 8, 7, 10, J or Q comes and he shoves, what are you doing? Ya know? We have to make our commitment decision on the flop, and that is extremely important. I've reconsidered my "call/reeval" alternative because we have sufficient equity to get it in here, and most turns are going to be folds if you're playing cautiously. That costs us money in retrospect.

[lockpull]

Good point on the commitment. Folding after putting in 1/3 of your stack over time would be a negative return. But in the case of absolutley no reads I am not too keen on shoving my whole stack on that board either. I am still trying to get a good hold of equity and how to properly figure that in to your decisions mainly because I am also still working on correctly putting my OPP on ranges. So, if I am understanding right, we shove this to not put ourselves into making a difficult decision on the turn (and because we do not want to make a habit of putting a 1/3 of our stack out there and folding to any scare card) and since (at least wth the ranges I did) we have 54% equity and in the long run we will be ahead? Also here are the ranges I did based off of an unknown with position on us:
I based this off what I would think they would call our PFR with and then raise our flop bet. Does this seem to wide of a range?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

21,223,823 games 16.005 secs 1,326,074 games/sec

Board: 9c 6c 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.825% 54.41% 00.41% 11548333 87601.50 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 45.175% 44.76% 00.41% 9500287 87601.50 { TT-55, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac5c, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, JcTc, 98s, 87s }


Sorry to take the post so far off but these are the subjects that I really need help with.

[Illfavor]

No prob. A short explanation is that if we have pot equity that is equal to or higher than the pot odds being offered we will have a positive expectation. In this case, say we have 50% equity. My all-in shove was essentially me putting in $26 to win 52. So half the time I lose 26, and the other half I win $52. Does that sound like I'm going to win a lot of money, on average?

[lockpull]

So it works out like this (100 hands):

half the time you lose $1300 and half the time you win $2600 so you come out ahead $1300. If you are (as you should be) looking at it over the long run then this makes it an easy shove. I have been reading Theory and Practice and have just started tackling EV. So if you also add in the times you get your OPP to fold that improves you EV as well (making this even easier of a shove) When looking at it with this information taken into account shoving would be the most profitable play with this range. I thank you for this explanation. I understood the math of EV but still have trouble putting my OPP on a range, calculating my odds/EV, figuring out their fold %, and still have time to click before I get auto folded
I guess, like most things, it gets easier the more you do it.

[Illfavor]

So it works out like this (100 hands):

half the time you lose $1300 and half the time you win $2600 so you come out ahead $1300. If you are (as you should be) looking at it over the long run then this makes it an easy shove. I have been reading Theory and Practice and have just started tackling EV. So if you also add in the times you get your OPP to fold that improves you EV as well (making this even easier of a shove) When looking at it with this information taken into account shoving would be the most profitable play with this range. I thank you for this explanation. I understood the math of EV but still have trouble putting my OPP on a range, calculating my odds/EV, figuring out their fold %, and still have time to click before I get auto folded
I guess, like most things, it gets easier the more you do it.

Quick, easy Expected Value calcs for this problem:

Our equity is 50%. We'll say we have 25 dollar effective stacks. Our expected value is the amount we win on average added to the amount we lose on average when we make the all-in call. Half the time we win 50, so (50 x .5) and half the time we lose 25 so we get: (50 x .5) - (25 x .5) or 25 - 12.5, or an EV of 12.5 bucks. We only needed 33% equity here to break even (you can do the calcs I think) but we're getting around 50% in this example, so it's very profitable, making us 12.5 dollars on average. Understand?

[bigspenda73]

probably fold to the flop raise in the 25nl FR game on Stars

[Micro2Macro]

probably fold to the flop raise in the 25nl FR game on Stars

+1

Check your database how often on average a flop raise turns out to be a set because not enough players have any balance at this level to have draws+combo draws etc. very often to raise with. Draws smooth call too much, even combo draws because everyone is so weak-tight. If you're getting raised you're likely up against a made hand, unless you're facing an aggro donk, or someone who plays position well. The latter is unlikely, and we don't know if our opponent plays tight postflop or not, though judging by the average VPIP's at Stars full ring he's more likely to be on a very strong range imo.

[Carroters]

probably fold to the flop raise in the 25nl FR game on Stars

+1

Check your database how often on average a flop raise turns out to be a set because not enough players have any balance at this level to have draws+combo draws etc. very often to raise with. Draws smooth call too much, even combo draws because everyone is so weak-tight. If you're getting raised you're likely up against a made hand, unless you're facing an aggro donk, or someone who plays position well. The latter is unlikely, and we don't know if our opponent plays tight postflop or not, though judging by the average VPIP's at Stars full ring he's more likely to be on a very strong range imo.

Yeah this was my point, although we have enough equity vs any range thats full of draws/combo draws tptk etc, the range for making this play at 25NL is often heavily skewed towards sets and the nuts as like Micro said, the amount of people who take passive lines with draws vs aggro lines with draws is pretty high. I'd go as far as to say it's like 80% - 20%, but that's just 20NL on i-poker.

[Illfavor]

Yeah this was my point, although we have enough equity vs any range thats full of draws/combo draws tptk etc, the range for making this play at 25NL is often heavily skewed towards sets and the nuts as like Micro said, the amount of people who take passive lines with draws vs aggro lines with draws is pretty high. I'd go as far as to say it's like 80% - 20%, but that's just 20NL on i-poker.

This is true. The villain had a set here, and I can't remember being raised, in general, postflop when the villain had less than two pairs at 10-25NL.

Hypothetical:
1. If the villain min-raised the flop is it still a fold? We'd be getting 4-1 and all that junks and his range is not just sets/straights imo (though heavily weighted towards them)

[Carroters]

If he min raises, this is the sort of spot where I just want to throw up all over my laptop. A default reaction is to peel the min raise and evaluate the turn, but this is probably bad since we're allowing any draws a chance to get there. If we're planning to fold on flush card turns etc then there's no point peeling this flop imo. Reason being, we are then narrowing his range on safe turns to missed draws and sets. Now we probabloy get no more value out of missed draws oop and we're not exactly going to lead the turn. So we either win whats in the pot IF he misses the river, or still get mauled by a set.

So if we can't peel that leavews fold and raise.

Raising is pretty much no different from before except that the min raise my indicate a weaker range on this drawy of a flop. Why is he giving everyone a cheap price if he has a set here? If he's a total donk that just min riases nut hands regardless then this is still a fold.

If he's a semi decent player we maybe have more equity and can shove more profitably.

Since we don't know anything about villain I think it's still a fold as peeling sucks imo.

The min riase stacks me more often though because psychologically I just can't hit the fold button at times.

[Micro2Macro]

Gross...if he min-raises, I probably just go into c/c mode since he's just shown he's a bet-sizing donk, therefore he'll probably let you to the river cheap enough to get 'value'. Then you get to look him up for an OK price and hope he has a poorly played overpair or busted draw. If the turn completes the flush draw it's not the end of the world since you picked up some outs and you may have some implied odds if the four flush completes and he can't let go of his hand. (FWIW people who min-raise in this spot rarely let go of their hand).

[Carroters]

sometimes theyll min raise the flop to get you "hooked" or whatever donks call it then pot the turn or something horrible with a big hand, especially on scare cards. I also hate losing value vs the draws because they're really the only significant part of his range we're ahead of imo.

I make my comitment decision on the flop for this reason. Although, when I'm actually playing this hand in the heat of the moment, I prolly end up calling down out of confusion, but I think this is bad in the clear light of day.

[Micro2Macro]

Therefore, min-raising should be illegal.

[RoyalProdigy]

The thing about a minraise if he has position on you is this....If he minraises your bet on a draw and you only smooth call his draw and then go into check call mode he probably won't bet the turn if hes on the draw because he doesnt have to, he can see the river for free because he stole the action with a minraise. This was something i used to do years ago. They minraise hoping you will just call and then check the next street so they can check as well if they don't hit their hand.

But you can't automatically think hes doing that just because he minraises its something you have to catch him once doing either with you or another player. So when he goes to do it again you slam his minraise.

Assuming hes not doing this (which 75% of the time they are not) I think you have to go with your poker intuition here. I think when he re-raised you like that you knew you were beat. This hand is pretty standard as some noted above. But i dont think there is a right or wrong anwser here without knowing villian better. I'm willing to stack off here, but i would have raised more to protect my hand preflop. But at the same time im willing to lay the hand down as well. lol. Its a pickle!!!