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Re: check...
 Originally Posted by langaan
hand 1- not many hands on vill, but he has been in more than 1/2 the pots, tbh not a clue what his donk on flop is
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP ($25.66)
UTG ($47.06)
Button ($25)
SB ($18.94)
Hero (CO) ($27.17)
BB ($23.39)
Preflop: Hero is CO with 10  , Q
UTG calls $0.25, 1 fold, Hero bets $1.25, 1 fold, SB calls $1.15, BB calls $1, UTG calls $1
Flop: ($5) 10  , 5  , 7 (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets $5, 1 fold, Hero calls $5, 1 fold
Turn: ($15) A (2 players)
BB bets $5, Hero calls $5
River: ($25) A (2 players)
BB raises to $12.14 (All-In), Hero folds
Total pot: $25
Hmm... Ok, I'm going to kind of hijack this thread a bit for my own learning purposes... apologies up front if this is a waste of time.
So we don't know a lot about villian but he has been in a lot of pots that we've seen. All we know is that effective stacks pf are $19. Ok, we've got that covered, UTG has us covered, BB we have covered...
While I don't open QTo in this position without a read on players behind me (I don't really want this hand multi-way personally, but I'm a 10NL learning player still)...
PF: We open, get two blinds who call, UTG who limped calls. Hmm... BB becomes our villian so let's analyze him... he calls a $3 pot with a $1 bet. Hmm... pot was offering him 3 to 1 but he will be out of position, so I think here I'm going to put him on a pocket pair, AK, AQ, hmm... without reads I can't say much else.. maybe some broadway combos... if he is looser maybe even down to AJ, AT, KJ. Ok, let's keep all of that in for now. So we have 22+, AT+, KJ+ for a range IMO so far...
ugh... pot is multi-way, 4 ways, someone holds an ace, someone has at least a pocket pair... IMO...
Post-Flop: SB checks, I think he was blind defending... he is likely not worrisome so far. BB bets pot. Wow. Didn't expect Pot. Ok... that narrows his range, the board didn't scare him at all, so now I'm thinking TT+, possibly 55, 77. Of that, we are ahead of none of it. Normally I'm intimidated enough to fold this right here... that may not be correct though, let me try to analyze it...
I don't see him betting this way with anything we are ahead of. Without a more solid read I think you have to give him credit for the overpair or set... possibly the FD.
Let's look at it differently.
Pot post flop is $10 to you needing $5 to call, making it 2:1 (33%). You have potentially 5 outs, but that is only likely to win if he holds an overpair, so I have to discount it a bit, let's say 3 outs. That makes you a 12% chance to hit roughly... so I think it's a fold based on pot odds... let's see what his stack holds... So if we add in his stack, $33 pot roughly, $5 to call, 6.6 to 1 so let's call that 13% and you still can't beat that, so it is still a fold.
I just can't see you being ahead at all here... guys am I close?
Or am I just scratching the surface here...
Turn... he bets 1/3 of pot. Weird. Looks like a value bet to me. Now your need to win this 1/4 of the time, and you're down to less than 10% favorite... I still think this is a fold...
Fold is the only option here I think... you aren't ahead of anything he is betting this way IMO... unless he is just a major bluffer.
Thoughts on my analysis appreciated, doing it at work in my head so I may be off a bit, and I'm still getting better... comments appreciated...
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