5NL Timing Tells - TPWK on flush board

[DemonDaze]

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (4 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($6.80)
Button ($6.98)
Hero (SB) ($5.10)
BB ($4.63)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5, K
2 folds, Hero bets $0.18, BB calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.40) K, 3, 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.30, BB calls $0.30

Turn: ($1) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.60, BB calls $0.60

River: ($2.20) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $1, BB raises $3.53 (All-In), Hero calls $2.53

Total pot: $9.26

Villain was 34/12 over not many hands, no real history.

This play seems really strange, I remember being 70% sure he had a naked Ac on the turn and 80-90% by the river, mostly due to timing tells. River bet was sized to encourage him to come over the top.

Is this spew or should you go with your reads in this situation?

[kfaess]

if you have no real history with this guy and haven't played that many hands with him then how can you be so confident of your reads? IMO reads take a good amount of time and hands to develop. I'm def folding to river raise, probably just folding preflop since we're oop (unless you have some other reason not to, like he folds his bb too much)

[DemonDaze]

He snap-called the flop and turn, which made me skew his range to Axo with Ac.

[Micro2Macro]

He snap-called the flop and turn, which made me skew his range to Axo with Ac.

Hey may just be really excited to have flopped a flush.

[mieczkowusc]

He snap-called the flop and turn, which made me skew his range to Axo with Ac.

Hey may just be really excited to have flopped a flush.

Of course he would be excited to have a flopped flush, it only happens 1 in 118 times.

Honestly, timing tells are not necessarily a good indicator. That being said, I've done it myself before. Its usually when the villain shoves a random blank turn and their line doesn't make any sense.

Since we didn't see the timing involved, its tough for anyone to make a correct read. Timing tells are very personally specific.

[DemonDaze]

Honestly, timing tells are not necessarily a good indicator. That being said, I've done it myself before. Its usually when the villain shoves a random blank turn and their line doesn't make any sense.

Since we didn't see the timing involved, its tough for anyone to make a correct read. Timing tells are very personally specific.

Yep realise, too difficult to tell if my read on timing tells was correct.

Just a general question on whether people will deviate from their standard line if they have a very strong feeling about a hand. Probably shouldn't have posted the hand as only an example.

This hand was a very unusual line for me, just based on the action I would probably take a completely different line.

[Micro2Macro]

I don't see how we can be calling here because the relative strength of our hand is just really, really bad. You basically only beat a bluff facing a shove here, so you need at least some sort of read to assume this villain will shove over you with a busted draw or a really shitty played mid pair. I don't see the benefit in betting the river here TBH other than as a blocking bet. I don't think a weaker pair is ever raising and if you bet + get raised you're just guessing whether or not your being bluffed back at because you have no reads.

Therefore: b/f or c/c > b/c.

I play full ring mostly and a little 6-max so I'm not sure I can say this about 6-max but *in general* (disregarding specific player reads) I've noticed that at low stakes, most people don't get too out of line when they raise you on the river. Pretty much no one at this level understands the concept of raising for thin-value (A raise is normally a pure bluff or the nuts), so your either WA/WB, and I'm looking more towards the side of way behind because we don't have any information on this players postlfop tendencies.

[POKEMONS]

I don't think you can profitably call this river. You have shown strength by betting 3 streets and I doubt he is shoving over your river bet with anything worse than two-pair. That being said I think c/c up to maybe a 2/3 pot sized bet on the river is a better line than betting it. Your hand is pretty much a bluff-catcher by the river, and I don't see any point to make it a bluff on the river.

As a side: Is it just me or is BB's line in this hand completely retarded for pretty much anything he can have here? I mean a solid player will not take this line for value with anything less than two-pair really, and of those hands a nut flush is pretty much the only one that I could see a good player calling two-streets with. Even then I would think he would at least raise the flop or the turn. Of course, at this level, I expect to see slowplayed flushes and sets much more often here than I would expect to see bluffs, but am I the only one who would be tempted to call this river against a thinking aggressive player?

[DemonDaze]

Remember if he has the Ac, he knows I don't have the Nut Flush. I think the only hands he can show up with here are Acx or Axc.

[POKEMONS]

Remember if he has the Ac, he knows I don't have the Nut Flush. I think the only hands he can show up with here are Acx or Axc.

Meh if he wasn't a 34/12 donk I would tend to agree with you, but I think you will end up see slowplayed flushes / slowplayed boats, and 3x more often than you will a busted flush draw betting the river. What's his AF by the way? 34/12 types are usually passive too and will not bluff too often.

[Micro2Macro]

Remember if he has the Ac, he knows I don't have the Nut Flush. I think the only hands he can show up with here are Acx or Axc.

Remember, you have no reads and your just leveling yourself about the Ac thing and how it will auto-shove the river just because you don't have it.

Kx, 8x, or 3x even depending on how big of a station he is are all hands he can show up with here. But we can most likely rule out an 8 or other mid pair like TT, and weigh more towards a shit-played Kx, a stationed 3x, a made flush, or complete air. Maybe even 88, how are we supposed to know though we have no reads on his postlfop play.
If he has Ac3x, which seems like a pretty legit hand to add to his range, his busted flush hit it's extra out.


Side note:
He had Ac3x right? And your posting because you lost the pot due to him hitting his trips on the river but to show that your read on him having the Ac is correct and your looking to see what we all think of a busted nut draw shoving the river here regardless of the 3 coming.

[DemonDaze]

Side note:
He had Ac3x right? And your posting because you lost the pot due to him hitting his trips on the river but to show that your read on him having the Ac is correct and your looking to see what we all think of a busted nut draw shoving the river here regardless of the 3 coming.

Nope, and the result isn't particularly important.

I was posting to see if people ever let timing tells overide normal hand analysis. Shouldn't of posted the hand.

I agree with most of the analysis above, as I have said the snap-call on the flop and turn made me discount the set/2-pair/pair hands (not completely eliminate) and skew his range to the draw.

[Micro2Macro]

When you bet the river you said you were hoping to induce a bluff/shove. As you played the hand, it's probably not a good idea to do this without history, but it is definately a fine move against a player you feel would get bluffy with busted draws. The one thing to keep in mind is if we're betting the river for value, what are we getting value out of. (Although I think you made it clear yourself you weren't betting for value, which is good thinking IMO so there's no need to ask you this question). You might have pot odds to call the river anyway even if he only sometimes bluff/shoves.

Just for the record on the timing tell aspect, I've read about and witnessed players both taking their sweet time on a draw, and also insta-calling, so without any history I don't think we can assume it to be in favour of one way over the other.