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 Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
Don't include bluff hands in his range. Just go with the hands you think he would play this way for value, then make assumptions on how much he has to be bluffing. Your range for him is still incredibly wide.
All righty... let's see. I'll come up with a real range that might raise small on the flop and then value bet / semi-bluff the turn. This assumes a pretty wide flatting range, but at low stakes, this seems pretty realistic.
Code:
Board: Js 3h Jh 9h
Hand 0: 37.749% 37.20% 00.54% 1195 17.50 { QcQh }
Hand 1: 62.251% 61.71% 00.54% 1982 17.50 { KcKh, KdKh, KhKs, QQ-77, 33, AhKh, AJs, AhTh, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah2h, KJs, KhTh, Kh8h, QJs, QhTh, Qh8h, J9s+, Th8h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 6h5h, 5h4h, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AJo, KJo, QJo }
Most of them are obvious, but I should probably note a few points. I think KK and AA reraise preflop here like 90% of the time, but we can't discount them completely. By including 3 of the 12 combinations of AA and KK, I'm giving a little weight to overpairs that are beating us. 88-77: Given my betting pattern thus far, it's pretty feasible that villain thinks I have AhK, AhQ, AKh, or AQh and that their underpair is ahead. I'm not saying 88 and 77 are always betting the turn, but I think some underpairs are betting here, so I want to include a couple of those. As for AhK, it has fold equity and implied odds against a pretty good portion of my range, so a semi-bluff here would make a lot of sense.
So I'm not in good shape against a really loose preflop flat call (given our positions). If villain is more reasonable preflop, we should be able to trim this down a lot:
Code:
Board: Js 3h Jh 9h
Hand 0: 44.152% 43.18% 00.97% 779 17.50 { QcQh }
Hand 1: 55.848% 54.88% 00.97% 990 17.50 { QQ-88, 33, AhKh, AJs, AhTh, KJs, KhTh, QJs, 8h7h, 7h6h, 6h5h, 5h4h, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AJo }
I knocked out KK and AA entirely (these hands definitely want to stack off preflop vs UTG and don't want to invite the entire table into a multiway pot). I took out 77 because I think a better opponent is betting even fewer underpairs. I took out a lot of unsuited broadways (flatting an UTG raise with AJo from MP1 is pretty terrible IMO, but I left it in there anyways to account for some of those unexpected Js we might run into). I also took out Axs and the suited gapped connectors.
All that, and we're still not in good shape. Obviously shoving over this turn is bad without a read (e.g. that villain is aggressive postflop or gets married to pocket pairs on boards like this). I'm not sure I like a fold, though, especially since I have shown passiveness after his flop raise: I'm basically inviting a bluff or a semi-bluff from a hand that we're dominating.
If we call here, half our stack is in the middle now. I feel like a lot of the hands we are beating here probably fire again on the river, so are we committing ourselves to a river call? Regardless, I have like 0 fold equity over whatever villain is betting with here. My only hope is to get it in good against ThT, AhK, or some other underpair that is giving me no credit. Because of that, I think check/call, check/call river is vastly superior to shoving here. I'm on the fence in regards to check/call, check/fold river. I think the worst option, though, is to check/fold turn. After showing some passiveness, we're not loving our hand in this spot, but I think we're still in decent shape, and there's a pretty good chance that a low pair checks behind on the river.
Is that better? And really this was a tough spot to figure out mid-hand. I basically looked at my hand and said, "I have an overpair, I have some outs against a low flush, and he might be bluffing. I'm in!" Definitely bad play in retrospect, and I'll be playing it better next time I'm in a spot like this.
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