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The 3 reasons we bet

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  1. #1
    Ragnar4's Avatar
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    Default The 3 reasons we bet

    Split from the TT betting for information stuff that Jolub posted.

    Ok. I got to thinking about the 3 reasons we bet, and I just want to make sure I have it, because to be honest.. I'm not feeling it.

    1. Because we have the best hand, and want to get money into the pot with the best hand.
    2. Because we think we have the opportunity to win the pot right now.
    3. Because we have a very large draw, and we want to bloat the pot should our draw come in.

    amirite?
    The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes
  2. #2
    4. to push our opponent off a weak hand that is still stronger than ours
  3. #3
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    There are more than 3 reasons but none of them are listed in this thread yet, only applications of some of the reasons. Break it down to a more basic level: what do your #1 and #2 REALLY do?
  4. #4
    If a bet is made and a worse hand folds, did it make a sound?
  5. #5
    Ragnar4's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow
    There are more than 3 reasons but none of them are listed in this thread yet, only applications of some of the reasons. Break it down to a more basic level: what do your #1 and #2 REALLY do?
    Gonna have to spend time thinking about this.. because I'm drawing a blank off the top of my head.
    The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes
  6. #6
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ragnar4
    Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow
    There are more than 3 reasons but none of them are listed in this thread yet, only applications of some of the reasons. Break it down to a more basic level: what do your #1 and #2 REALLY do?
    Gonna have to spend time thinking about this.. because I'm drawing a blank off the top of my head.
    I'll get you started: if we bet and better hands fold that's a _________. If we bet and worse hands call that's a __________.
  7. #7
    Ragnar4's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jyms
    If a bet is made and a worse hand folds, did it make a sound?
    Technically, you always want the worse hands to call, and you always want the hands that are better to fold, but that's more about pot size manipulation isn't it?
    The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes
  8. #8
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ragnar4
    Quote Originally Posted by jyms
    If a bet is made and a worse hand folds, did it make a sound?
    Technically, you always want the worse hands to call, and you always want the hands that are better to fold, but that's more about pot size manipulation isn't it?
    No, this is exactly the point. If a bet [or raise] doesn't do one of those two things (get a worse hand to call or a better hand to fold) then it's rather likely that the bet [or raise] shouldn't be made.
  9. #9
    Ragnar4's Avatar
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    ok.

    1) To get better hands to fold
    2) to get worse hands to call.
    3) (bloating the pot doesn't do either, but I still think this is correct) Bloating the pot when you have equity
    The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes
  10. #10
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ragnar4
    ok.

    1) To get better hands to fold
    2) to get worse hands to call.
    3) (bloating the pot doesn't do either, but I still think this is correct) Bloating the pot when you have equity
    Another way of saying #3 is when your pot equity dictates it's +EV, which is probably just a subcase of #2. This is often most pronounced when we have a combo-draw in NLHE or in a multi-way pot in LHE where we might have like the nut flush draw 5-way and make a raise because everyone will call it. It creates a +EV situation because we're putting less money into the pot percentage-wise than the equity we have in the pot.

    Other aspects of betting are for information and manipulation and things like that.
  11. #11
    Guest
    Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow
    Quote Originally Posted by Ragnar4
    Quote Originally Posted by jyms
    If a bet is made and a worse hand folds, did it make a sound?
    Technically, you always want the worse hands to call, and you always want the hands that are better to fold, but that's more about pot size manipulation isn't it?
    No, this is exactly the point. If a bet [or raise] doesn't do one of those two things (get a worse hand to call or a better hand to fold) then it's rather likely that the bet [or raise] shouldn't be made.
    That's wrong.

    Say I have a worse hand, but I have a flush draw. You shove your TPTK in because the pot is large enough to do that, and I fold. Does that mean you should let me draw for free?

    So the third reason is to protect our hand. The fourth reason is for information.
  12. #12
    I don't bet, I like to c/c all the time
  13. #13
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by iopq
    Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow
    Quote Originally Posted by Ragnar4
    Quote Originally Posted by jyms
    If a bet is made and a worse hand folds, did it make a sound?
    Technically, you always want the worse hands to call, and you always want the hands that are better to fold, but that's more about pot size manipulation isn't it?
    No, this is exactly the point. If a bet [or raise] doesn't do one of those two things (get a worse hand to call or a better hand to fold) then it's rather likely that the bet [or raise] shouldn't be made.
    That's wrong.

    Say I have a worse hand, but I have a flush draw. You shove your TPTK in because the pot is large enough to do that, and I fold. Does that mean you should let me draw for free?

    So the third reason is to protect our hand. The fourth reason is for information.
    No, "protecting your hand" is just a subcase of getting worse hands to call -- just because the hand is classified as a "draw" doesn't change the simple fact that it has less equity than the aggressor like all other value-betting cases.

    A third reason to bet or raise is information, but my understanding is that the number of cases you will run into to utilize this effectively before mid-stakes is very low.

    A fourth reason is manipulation. A free card play is a good basic example here.
  14. #14
    Miffed22001's Avatar
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    no-one has yet mentioned the fundamental theorem of poker
  15. #15
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigspenda73
    I don't bet, I like to fc/fc all the time
    Flat check/flat call imo
  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow
    Quote Originally Posted by iopq
    Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow
    Quote Originally Posted by Ragnar4
    Quote Originally Posted by jyms
    If a bet is made and a worse hand folds, did it make a sound?
    Technically, you always want the worse hands to call, and you always want the hands that are better to fold, but that's more about pot size manipulation isn't it?
    No, this is exactly the point. If a bet [or raise] doesn't do one of those two things (get a worse hand to call or a better hand to fold) then it's rather likely that the bet [or raise] shouldn't be made.
    That's wrong.

    Say I have a worse hand, but I have a flush draw. You shove your TPTK in because the pot is large enough to do that, and I fold. Does that mean you should let me draw for free?

    So the third reason is to protect our hand. The fourth reason is for information.
    No, "protecting your hand" is just a subcase of getting worse hands to call -- just because the hand is classified as a "draw" doesn't change the simple fact that it has less equity than the aggressor like all other value-betting cases.

    A third reason to bet or raise is information, but my understanding is that the number of cases you will run into to utilize this effectively before mid-stakes is very low.

    A fourth reason is manipulation. A free card play is a good basic example here.
    No, I'm OK with a draw folding because I gain equity when a draw folds correctly, or when a draw calls incorrectly. Obviously, I'd prefer him to call, but I'd take a fold over giving him a free card.
  17. #17
    Ragnar4's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigspenda73
    I don't bet, I like to c/c all the time
    Sweet, now I can play as good as spenda.
    The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes
  18. #18
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by iopq
    Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow
    Quote Originally Posted by iopq
    Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow
    Quote Originally Posted by Ragnar4
    Quote Originally Posted by jyms
    If a bet is made and a worse hand folds, did it make a sound?
    Technically, you always want the worse hands to call, and you always want the hands that are better to fold, but that's more about pot size manipulation isn't it?
    No, this is exactly the point. If a bet [or raise] doesn't do one of those two things (get a worse hand to call or a better hand to fold) then it's rather likely that the bet [or raise] shouldn't be made.
    That's wrong.

    Say I have a worse hand, but I have a flush draw. You shove your TPTK in because the pot is large enough to do that, and I fold. Does that mean you should let me draw for free?

    So the third reason is to protect our hand. The fourth reason is for information.
    No, "protecting your hand" is just a subcase of getting worse hands to call -- just because the hand is classified as a "draw" doesn't change the simple fact that it has less equity than the aggressor like all other value-betting cases.

    A third reason to bet or raise is information, but my understanding is that the number of cases you will run into to utilize this effectively before mid-stakes is very low.

    A fourth reason is manipulation. A free card play is a good basic example here.
    No, I'm OK with a draw folding because I gain equity when a draw folds correctly, or when a draw calls incorrectly. Obviously, I'd prefer him to call, but I'd take a fold over giving him a free card.
    The underlined is simply misinformed: our goal is to maximize value, not equity.

    Suppose we bet x amount all-in into pot cx where c is a positive real number. Villain is getting (cx+x): x pot odds, and so he needs an equity of less than x/(cx+2x) for a call to be incorrect. Assume our equity E > 1 - x/(cx+2x), so Villain's options are an incorrect call or a fold.

    If Villain folds, we profit cx. Now we show that the value of Villain calling E(cx+x) is always greater:

    If Villain calls, we profit:
    E(cx+x)
    > (1 - x/(cx+2x))(cx+x)
    = cx+x - x(cx+x)/(cx+2x)
    > cx+x - x*
    = cx

    * Note: (cx+x)/(cx+2x) < 1 and cx+x is always positive. If you have trouble seeing it, consider W - 0.5x > W - x where W = cx+x.

    Therefore having Villain make an incorrect call is always better.
  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow
    Quote Originally Posted by bigspenda73
    I don't bet, I like to fc/fc all the time
    Flat check/flat call imo
    check dark/smooth call
  20. #20
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigspenda73
    Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow
    Quote Originally Posted by bigspenda73
    I don't bet, I like to fc/fc all the time
    Flat check/flat call imo
    check dark/smooth call
    Cold check/call dark
  21. #21
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    Of course having the draw call is better, but if we know our opponent won't call without correct odds, that DOESN'T MAKE OUR BET INCORRECT.

    Another example: we're in an SNGs with 10BBs
    BU raises to 3x, SB folds
    we shove JTs and BU folds 22

    we're ahead of 22, but don't we prefer that he folded? After all, while we're ahead, he has pot odds to call and we'd prefer him to fold

    we got worse folding, but because of the size of the pot we don't dislike it
  22. #22
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    My first thoughts...

    Value
    Deception
    Protection

    There are more than 3 IMO.
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  23. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow
    Quote Originally Posted by bigspenda73
    Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow
    Quote Originally Posted by bigspenda73
    I don't bet, I like to fc/fc all the time
    Flat check/flat call imo
    check dark/smooth call
    Cold check/call dark
    remember that HSP hand where Sammy raises PF, Gold rr's, sammy calls and bets the flop dark and gold raises the flop dark. One of the funniest hands ever and jamie had AA and sammy like QQ and that was like hte only way Gold wasn't getting paid.
  24. #24

    Default Re: The 3 reasons we bet

    Quote Originally Posted by Ragnar4
    Split from the TT betting for information stuff that Jolub posted.

    Ok. I got to thinking about the 3 reasons we bet, and I just want to make sure I have it, because to be honest.. I'm not feeling it.

    1. Because we have the best hand, and want to get money into the pot with the best hand.
    2. Because we think we have the opportunity to win the pot right now.
    3. Because we have a very large draw, and we want to bloat the pot should our draw come in.

    amirite?
    Ok, in a simple sense:

    1. Yes, you're correct, if we feel we have the best hand it is typically correct to bet. However, there are spots where it is not. Can you think of any of these?

    2. I would guess this pertains to our opponents drawing against us and their immediate/implied odds. If this is the case, then yes, this is a good reason to bet. What would be the key factor in this bet?

    3. I feel like this statement could be coming from someone who read SSLHE like I did when I first started and was playing loose/passive FR LHE games. Whenever you bet, you're obviously building a bigger pot, so what are some better reasons to bet/raise our draws?
  25. #25

    Default Re: The 3 reasons we bet

    Quote Originally Posted by bigspenda73
    1. Yes, you're correct, if we feel we have the best hand it is typically correct to bet. However, there are spots where it is not. Can you think of any of these?

    2. I would guess this pertains to our opponents drawing against us and their immediate/implied odds. If this is the case, then yes, this is a good reason to bet. What would be the key factor in this bet?

    3. I feel like this statement could be coming from someone who read SSLHE like I did when I first started and was playing loose/passive FR LHE games. Whenever you bet, you're obviously building a bigger pot, so what are some better reasons to bet/raise our draws?
    1) Where we have the nut hand, and WANT the opp to improve to a still dominated hand.

    2) If we're talking about drawing, you want to bet to give you opponent incorrect odds to call.

    3) To win the pot now by representing a made hand?
  26. #26
    Close on some, I'd like Ragnar to respond before I give my complete thoughts.
  27. #27
    Ragnar4's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigspenda73
    Close on some, I'd like Ragnar to respond before I give my complete thoughts.
    Ok.

    Obviously the most primal reasons we bet come from extrapolation of Sklansky's Fundamental Theorem of Poker.

    1) You bet, and if your opponent could see your hand he would call, but he didn't call, he folded and therefore you win.
    --We bet to get better hands to fold.
    2) You bet, and if your opponent could see your hand he would fold, but he didn't fold he called, and therefore you win
    --We bet to get worse hands to call
    TOP Subnote) These two points can be achieved more effectively through pot manipulation type bets. IE if you have a full house, you can bet less to try to encourage a flush or straight to come along, and if you only have top pair, you can bet more to give worse odds to same draws.

    Finally from your Q3 Spenda. Yeap, it's SSH was my bible playing limit holdem.

    Well, by betting/raising we are jacking the initiative as long as we are in position. And we aren't supposed to be betting/raising draws in position without large overlay. So. You're betting in position to cause your opponent to go passive on the turn so you can check out if you miss with your draw.

    --We bet to assume/retain control of the hand?

    I gave up reading before Spoon came in and said.
    We bet for information. (Not a the Micros)
    We bet for pot manipulation
    The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes
  28. #28
    I didnt read every reply ITT but here goes...

    There are lots of reasons to bet but primarily we bet:
    (A) For value
    (B) To encourage our opponent to make a mistake
    Quote Originally Posted by ISF
    Nothing actually changes in a poker game besides equity....
    When we can maximize our equity, we will make lots and lots of money.
  29. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by bigspenda73
    Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow
    Quote Originally Posted by bigspenda73
    Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow
    Quote Originally Posted by bigspenda73
    I don't bet, I like to fc/fc all the time
    Flat check/flat call imo
    check dark/smooth call
    Cold check/call dark
    remember that HSP hand where Sammy raises PF, Gold rr's, sammy calls and bets the flop dark and gold raises the flop dark. One of the funniest hands ever and jamie had AA and sammy like QQ and that was like hte only way Gold wasn't getting paid.
    You got the hands wrong

    Gold had KK and Sammy had AA.

    After all that action I still can't believe they didn't get it all in with the board they had.
  30. #30
    We bet because if we don't we're just a spectator
    "Just cause I'm from the South don't mean I ain't got no book learnin'"

    Quote Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla View Post
    ...we've all learned long ago how to share the truth without actually having the truth.
  31. #31
    I thought it was KK vs QQ and they were both acting like they had AA
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  32. #32
    a500lbgorilla's Avatar
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    himself fucker.
    I thought sammy was wearing darker sunglasses thus winning the hand
    <a href=http://i.imgur.com/kWiMIMW.png target=_blank>http://i.imgur.com/kWiMIMW.png</a>
  33. #33
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  34. #34
    Postflop bets (and raises) are mainly for value and bluff. That's it. Rest of reasons (protection, blockers, pot sweeteners) are just subcategories of those two and depend on our overall equity and purpose of betting.

    Value:
    - blocking bets (to get value from worse and stop bluffs to some extent)
    - protection bets (to give bad odds vs hands with reasonable equity)
    - pure value bets (to get value from worse by getting called)
    - bluff-inducing bets (to get value frome worse by getting raised)
    - potbuilding bets (to set-up bigger bets on later streets)

    Bluff :
    - betting as stone cold bluff (total air, near zero pot equity)
    - betting as semibluff (hand with some equity vs calling range)

    The so-called "bets for information" are either for value or as a bluff, depending on what kind of info we got from them and how we want to use that info.
    "How could I call that bet? How could you MAKE that bet? It's poker not solitaire. " - that Gus Bronson guy

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