$10NL FR with AA and semi scary board

[Erpel]

He's not jamming anything but the J (or the flush) into you, so you can fold but I don't think it's a huge mistake to call given pot odds.

at 10NL this is no bluff

River is really a spot where we probably should be folding even getting the extremely nice price of 3.5:1

The comments from before results indicated a belief that folding was the correct play - this alone makes a bluff a possible play. The villain may have grasped intuitively (and for right or wrong reasons) that the Ts was a perfect card to bluff at. Sometimes people play on instincts and make correct choices more by mistake than anything else, but that doesn't mean that the result doesn't matter. I know most everyone concluded that regardless of folding perhaps being the right move - we HAVE to call - but just the way we seriously contemplated folding suggests that there is fold equity in the villain's shove.

Anyway - any straight or flush draw was -EV if calling the turn. No basic EV calculation that people at these limits are capable of would suggest that calling would be profitable.

At these limits you're much more likely to see people falling in love with absolute hand strength and ignoring relative hand strength - making two pair and lower sets all likely hands. I think AT and AJ are likely folding on the turn and KQ hands calling - you can tell me that it doesn't make sense from an equity point of view, but it would make sense to someone playing those limits - it's made! I still find it more likely to have a villain here married to a two pair or lower set hand and calling turn than calling turn on a draw since he doesn't have odds to do so.

Since we bet so hard we seem to want to price out drawing hands indicating we might have top pair + draw, two pair or set. The fact that villain could suspect us of having set doesn't prevent him from calling turn hoping we have a draw instead - on river villain can change opinion completely and decide we had a set and that we'll be scared by the river card that completes straights and flushes. Villains at these limits do not conduct proper hand range analyses and can change view completely about what you are holding from one street to the next. MUB etc.

I think we're alternately giving the villain too much and too little credit in this thread, and I think we're generally not succeeding in getting into his head. Even a monkey slamming buttons has some buttons he'll slam more than others.

Anyway, the error in the analysis bit I did earlier left out lower sets completely - that's 6 hand combinations. As the river analysis showed it takes 4 hand combinations only to offset the value of all JT hands (and QsJs) and make calling breakeven. With lower sets in the villain range (as I think they should be along with all the two-pair hands) this is even more a must-call.