Limped pots with middle pairs, what's your plan?

[minSim]

edit: 25NL, 6 max, villain on the looser passive side.

You're BB/OOP in a limped pot HU, holding 76.
What's your flop+turn plan when the flop comes;

1- T 7 2
2- T 7 2
3- T 7 2

Does it change all that much if you're having 7Q?

(please provide your logic if you're using a good one, cause I don't seem to have one for the turn here)

[kb coolman]

Limped HU, I don't see a lot of value in this hand.

But, Let's assume 2 limp and the SB completes, making you 2nd to act. With 76o, I'm gonna c/f this flop every time. However, 7hQs in flop 3 becomes an issue of implied odds. I'm not laying this one down cheap, but at the same time, I'm trying to keep as many ops in play as possible and build the pot. I don't want to represent an overpair, and I don't want to scare off anyone else who has hit top pair or the open ender with 89. Multi-way, you can build a big pot while giving your ops favorable odds to call. You have the possibility of building a fairly large pot with a reasonable investment on your port. Hitting your flush is just too tempting here.

in each case I bet it because I have some equity in the pot and I'll get called by worse some of the time - your straight or flush draws
the best case for betting is hand 2 since the villain will have a lot of draws to pay your middle pair off

and I'm going to probably give him a free card on the turn if he calls the flop to keep the pot small and avoid value-towning myself

[speedcake]

tiny hand , tiny pot?

[kmind]

Winning limped pots is crucial and I am betting all of those on the flop and turn in most situations. People usually have nothing. Obv. the less drawy the board the better to bluff at etc.

[minSim]

Winning limped pots is crucial and I am betting all of those on the flop and turn in most situations. People usually have nothing. Obv. the less drawy the board the better to bluff at etc.

This is mostly my thinking as well. Villains mostly have nothing here and it's of no use giving a free card to one or two overs AND often worse then ours are calling.
If we're having like K7 on a 2KA board, giving a free card isn't that bad.

It's mostly the turn that botters me. I used to check often, especially since a lot of turns are overcards to our pair and my thinking is that now really no worse hand is gonna call us anymore.

But checking often lead to c/f turn by me or the giving away initiative lead to a river c/f.
After Kmind's response and thinking it over myself I like b/f flop, b/f turn, c/f river.

I guess it's part of being OOP that we should b/f a bit weaker hands instead of check (as opposed too being IP).

villains often call with ace high here to try and spike that ace

[minSim]

Iopq, you said you'd often check the turn after betting flop, because you're afraid you'll valuetown yourself. I agree with your argument, especially with MPMK/MPBK, although I'm not sure it weighs enough when we're OOP.
Is your plan to c/c or c/f?

If you're c/c-ing I assume you c/f river. I have a feeling I'm getting exploitated very often in that case (but that might not be true, just seems so), because people seem to bet both turn and river very often when I'm giving away initiative here.
Are you confident that the times you do get to showdown using your line nets you more than the 'simple' b/f-ing turn? (simple in easy decisions)

If you do c/c turn, c/f river....are you having a range for c/c turn, c/c river?

nah I just call a tiny bet and fold to a nicely sized turn bet

so my plan is like c/f c/f lol unless the bets are really small
but I get it checked through to the river a lot when I'm ahead

[minSim]

nah I just call a tiny bet and fold to a nicely sized turn bet

so my plan is like c/f c/f lol unless the bets are really small
but I get it checked through to the river a lot when I'm ahead

Interesting. You said you expect to get called by even A high often on the flop, but you're c/fing a lot on the turn. That does assume that you expect those worse hands to check the turn through when they miss a lot.
It just seems like your range is quite unbalanced, although not meaning that's necessarily bad or very important.

To me it seems people insta bet turn to me when I check, after betting flop. But that might be because I like taking stabs at these pots so my range isn't very strong in general.

Do you have a c/c range against a reasonably sized turn bet? Like TPMK?
(fwiw, I would mostly b/f those again on the turn because I think 2nd pairs from the flop call a lot IP on the turn at these stakes and in general I'm not a fan of giving away initiative)

It's not like these are big pots or come up veryvery often, so a possible mistake is at least very small, but it's always nice to look at things this way, imo.
It's also probably true that different lines are good here, as long as they fit in the rest of the plan.

[LuckySlevin]

if you bet the flop and then get 3bet I'm assuming it's a fold against most villians?

[minSim]

if you bet the flop and then get 3bet I'm assuming it's a fold against most villians?

yes

[a500lbgorilla]

edit: 25NL, 6 max, villain on the looser passive side.

You're BB/OOP in a limped pot HU, holding 76.
What's your flop+turn plan when the flop comes;

1- T 7 2
2- T 7 2
3- T 7 2

Does it change all that much if you're having 7Q?

(please provide your logic if you're using a good one, cause I don't seem to have one for the turn here)

Alright 1- HU limped pot is a bet 100%, 3 ways, I think it's closer to 50/50 depending on my opponents. 4+ ways so long as I don't think anyone will raise my light, I'd bet 25% of the time BUT I'd bet air/overs/draws/outs about 50+%

2- All bet percentages drop to near zero unless I had a good reason based on whomever is in the pot.

3- I'd consider open folding.

nah I just call a tiny bet and fold to a nicely sized turn bet

so my plan is like c/f c/f lol unless the bets are really small
but I get it checked through to the river a lot when I'm ahead

Interesting. You said you expect to get called by even A high often on the flop, but you're c/fing a lot on the turn. That does assume that you expect those worse hands to check the turn through when they miss a lot.
It just seems like your range is quite unbalanced, although not meaning that's necessarily bad or very important.

To me it seems people insta bet turn to me when I check, after betting flop. But that might be because I like taking stabs at these pots so my range isn't very strong in general.

Do you have a c/c range against a reasonably sized turn bet? Like TPMK?
(fwiw, I would mostly b/f those again on the turn because I think 2nd pairs from the flop call a lot IP on the turn at these stakes and in general I'm not a fan of giving away initiative)

It's not like these are big pots or come up veryvery often, so a possible mistake is at least very small, but it's always nice to look at things this way, imo.
It's also probably true that different lines are good here, as long as they fit in the rest of the plan.

I still said I'd call a small bet, I just don't think people pot the turn without actually having something good

but in terms of balance, my range is SO wide here
if I lead flop and check turn I could have:
air/draw/bottom pair + draw/middle pair/top pair
the only thing I can't have is the nuts since I build pots with the nuts

and sometimes I'll call bricked river with middle pair after turn goes check/check

[minSim]

edit: 25NL, 6 max, villain on the looser passive side.

You're BB/OOP in a limped pot HU, holding 76.
What's your flop+turn plan when the flop comes;

1- T 7 2
2- T 7 2
3- T 7 2

Does it change all that much if you're having 7Q?

(please provide your logic if you're using a good one, cause I don't seem to have one for the turn here)

Alright 1- HU limped pot is a bet 100%, 3 ways, I think it's closer to 50/50 depending on my opponents. 4+ ways so long as I don't think anyone will raise my light, I'd bet 25% of the time BUT I'd bet air/overs/draws/outs about 50+%

2- All bet percentages drop to near zero unless I had a good reason based on whomever is in the pot.

3- I'd consider open folding.

1- What's your turn plan after betting?

2- I assume your plan is to c/f. Don't you think there's value in betting against a loose passive, who's often not going to raise his draws?

3- I agree on c/f against most.

[jackvance]

I'd bet all three, then hope to check it down if called.

[a500lbgorilla]

1- what do you think will call me on the flop?
2- that would be a good reason to bet based on whomever is in the pot!
3- i agree on your agree

Here's a related hand
villain sees me take shots at pots, raises ATC
I fold to him two times
the third time I had a better hand and he folded to my turn bet

now, keeping that in mind... I don't think he has crap here

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($90.55)
Hero (BB) ($96.10)
UTG ($50)
UTG+1 ($151.35)
MP1 ($79.25)
MP2 ($12.75)
MP3 ($13.25)
CO ($138.40)
Button ($51.45)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4, 2
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 6 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($1.25) 8, 4, 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $1, UTG+1 raises to $2.50, Hero calls $1.50

Turn: ($6.25) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $4, 1 fold

Total pot: $6.25 | Rake: $0.30

[a500lbgorilla]

just a comment: seems like a poor approach to assume he's raising you as a bluff but waiting for a hand of value to get back at him. opinions?

[minSim]

if I lead flop and check turn I could have:
air/draw/bottom pair + draw/middle pair/top pair
the only thing I can't have is the nuts since I build pots with the nuts

and sometimes I'll call bricked river with middle pair after turn goes check/check

I think it's probably best to double barrel draws/MPTP/TP when OOP. Draws because there's enough FE and MPTP/TP because there's enough value and I don't want a scare card to fall on the river to ruin my value.
My valuebets on the turn naturally get balanced by the draws.
Maybe I'm just too agressive with my value hands, it seems like you play them more passive. Any ideas on it?

1- what do you think will call me on the flop?

98, 2 overs, 2+overcard, MP+ ?

just a comment: seems like a poor approach to assume he's raising you as a bluff but waiting for a hand of value to get back at him. opinions?

yeah iopq, I don't really get your play in the hand. Seems like you either put villain on air/draw and should probably c/c turn. Or you put him on a made hand and your turn bet is meant as a bluff. But he can't be folding an 8 to it.
It really seems like he has air or a gutshot here to me.

[Erpel]

1- what do you think will call me on the flop?

I'm tempted to say any two cards with any equity. The villain profile was loose passive and he limped pre - he could have any two cards, which means a lot of hands an aggressive player would raise with might be called instead - giving him a wide calling range.
Almost definite calls: AT, KT, QT, JT, T9, T8, 99, 88, 98, 97, 87, AK, AQ, AJ, A7, KQ, KJ
Raise/call: AA-JJ, TT, 77, 22, T7
Fold/call: 66-33, A9, A8, A6-A2, 76, QJ

The fact that this was limped pre-flop means a healthy discount on most strong pocket holdings (discounted in bold)- but with a loose passive player we can't rule out even the strongest holding - he may have gone for the limp/re-raise etc. Still, his pre-flop limping range is so wide that a donk-bet is profitable for fold equity alone imo. And if called I think we're probably behind 65% of the time (guesstimate).

I would like to build an argument for firing two barrels, but I'm not sure in isolation if that is profitable - if our loose passive opponent is even the slightest bit of a calling station we only have a chance to fold out the hands that we beat. Also it's worth noting that the overs we wish to be called by 1) have outs to beat us and 2) are discounted as they are more likely to have been raised pre than just limped. Carefully sized a second barrel might be close to neutral EV (and would be followed by c/f on the river). I can see the second barrel happening if we get a scare card on the turn. I think an ace or king probably qualify - weak aces and kings should be in our perceived ranges and they will beat many Tx or 7x hands the villain may have called flop with.

I think I'm probably looking at b/f, c/f and then c/c. In a limped pot I don't think I'd necessarily feel bad paying off even TP hands on the river, as the stronger part of his range is discounted by him not raising PF, raising the flop or betting the turn.

Yeah, I know I only responded to one of three scenarios, but I'm slow.

just a comment: seems like a poor approach to assume he's raising you as a bluff but waiting for a hand of value to get back at him. opinions?

I turned it into a 100% bluff because fuck him

[a500lbgorilla]

if op tends to be bad by calling with too many hands, say any pair plus a few combos of overcards to help even out his love of calling:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

379,170 games 0.005 secs 75,834,000 games/sec

Board: Th 7s 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.987% 48.83% 00.16% 185147 597.50 { 7h6s }
Hand 1: 51.013% 50.86% 00.16% 192828 597.50 { 22+, ATs, A2s, KTs+, K2s, QTs+, Q2s, JTs, J2s, T2s+, 98s, 92s, 82s, 72s, 62s, 52s, 42s, 32s, ATo, A2o, KTo+, K2o, QTo+, Q2o, JTo, J2o, T2o+, 98o, 92o, 82o, 72o, 62o, 52o, 42o, 32o }

plus all of the times he folds because he doesn't hit at all. So it's close but almost def +EV.

Now, when the opp tends to drop out the bottom of his range, that increases our ability to make them fold in other similar spots when we don't hit but want the bbs in the pot.

[Monty3038]

edit: 25NL, 6 max, villain on the looser passive side.

You're BB/OOP in a limped pot HU, holding 76.
What's your flop+turn plan when the flop comes;

1- T 7 2
2- T 7 2
3- T 7 2

Does it change all that much if you're having 7Q?

(please provide your logic if you're using a good one, cause I don't seem to have one for the turn here)

I haven't read all of the responses yet but here goes...

My general plan for middle pair when BB hits it, in a limped pot, is to limp along and avoid action... so I'm checking flop here MOST of the time... if I have a read on villian that shows he will fold to a c-bet I often will c-bet it to win the pot right here. This hand can't stand a lot of action, so i'm trying to get out cheaply or win with minimal betting. In the third example the flush draw is there, but what happens if he holds the jack of spades (as QJ might be within his range?)... I don't like these situations personally and often just check them down... folding to any action.

(take all monty3038 advice with a grain of salt)

[a500lbgorilla]

My general plan for middle pair when BB hits it, in a limped pot, is to limp along and avoid action... so I'm checking flop here MOST of the time...

my general plan for poker is to find spots where players are losing value and exploit them. Are you exploiting anyone else or are you losing value?

[Monty3038]

My general plan for middle pair when BB hits it, in a limped pot, is to limp along and avoid action... so I'm checking flop here MOST of the time...

my general plan for poker is to find spots where players are losing value and exploit them. Are you exploiting anyone else or are you losing value?

I'm probably losing value a lot of the time, but when the players I'm up against have better cards more within their range (or to put it better, when I feel I'm beat by most of their range), I'm checking it down.

[kettleofish]

Monty, I think you are grossly overestimating how strong your opps range is in spots like these. It's a limped pot, they could have almost annnnnnnnything here. See rilla's range. It's possibly a *little* loose but you get the idea, it's likely your midpair is good a fair percentage of the time. Also, one of the main benefits of loose passive fishies is that they aren't raising you light, so it's pretty easy to get away from your midpair if they start getting frisky. BUT because they are so passive, it's important that u can get thinner value because they aren't stacking off easily when u have a monster.

IMO as always

Oh, as for the 3 situations, against relative unknowns i'm firing at 1 and 2. Hand 1 i'll fire again on the turn if a low card rolls off or the board pairs, and at 2 if no spade appears.