Pre-flop, of course I call it against this guy. Against a 12/7? No.Originally Posted by d0zer
wat? WAT?
so if someone said a coin landed heads 60% of the time...and they offered you even monies....
There is information presented to you during the course of a poker hand that is not available in a coin flip. Board texture, opponent ranges, betting patterns, etc.
Playing hand percentages with no regard to opponent ranges will not win you any money. Against a decent player, you will get stacked time and time again, especially with the % is marginal. Trust me, I know from experience.
If you were AI with QQ against a random opponent pre-flop against this board, then yes, you will win 60% of the time. That does not take into consideration information given during the course of the hand.
Let's look at it another way. You have AcAh pre-flop, the board presents 4 spades and you're faced with an AI call decision on the river. Technically, you would win this hand 55% of the time. That's better than 50/50, so it's a long term +EV play, right? But it makes a big difference if you're checking the river as opposed to calling the AI bet. Calling when you know you're beat is -EV, I don't care what the odds are.
Reply With Quote