NL 10: Tough decision on the river

Villain is 19/6/1

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($10.75)
Button ($20)
Hero (SB) ($13.55)
BB ($3)
UTG+1 ($8.75)
MP1 ($37.05)
MP2 ($11.95)
MP3 ($10)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, 9
UTG+1 calls $0.10, 3 folds, CO calls $0.10, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.05, BB checks

Flop: ($0.40) Q, 10, J (4 players)
Hero bets $0.40, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.40, CO calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.60) 3 (3 players)
Hero bets $0.90, 1 fold, CO calls $0.90

River: ($3.40) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $2.60, CO raises to $9.35 (All-In),

and I tank
he did wait before pushing

Because of how the hand was playing out, I was fairly certain he didn't have a better straight. The question is, trip queens or a boat?

[hangchiong]

ill probably bet more on the turn,around 1.20-1.50.and ill snap call that push.most likely facing trips queens,although lots of them on 10NL,slowplay a set on a dangerous board.but i wont fold this hand.

[swiggidy]

Why go pot, 1/2 pot, 3/4 pot?

I bet more on turn and c/c reasonable bet on river. Probably fold as played, although you really shouldn't b/f. There's no way this is AQ/KQ, he's tight and pretty passive. Looks like a QJ/TT to me.

[spoonitnow]

Step 1: Put Villain on a range.
Step 2: Figure out your pot odds.
Step 3: Use 1 & 2 to decide if a call is profitable.

[M3RDpoRt3]

Flop is fine. But I am never betting less than 3/4 pot on this turn tho. With the two callers I would feel like I am losing value. The river would make me kinda uneasy, I would probably have bet $2 at most, that way I can call a raise easier. I don't want to be in the spot where I am facing a big raise like you were. As far as hands I put him on, I can see KQ and QJ as the most likely. Q10 is def possible but I don't see that hand showing up here much given the way it was played and villain's stats. I think you are good here most of the time, call the all-in but cry about it

[bjsaust]

I think this is a fairly easy call. You're pretty much worried about QJ and thats it. I think he has trips a lot more than he has you beat. Not a fistpump by any means, but folding here is too weaktight.

[okiman]

Hey iopq, nice to see you here too.

Being new to NL cash game, listen to the better players before my read, but...

I'd pot the turn as the only hand you're worried about is K9 and you're getting enough hands to call you down.

Given his stats, he'd likely raise pf w/ QQ, JJ, maybe even 1010 and AQs/AQo, so I'd say KQ, QJ, maybe Q10s, Q9s, or even a desperate 99 (although you'd need to look at his river AF since an AF of 1 doesn't indicate a lot of river bluffs). It looks like his range is wide enough for a call though.

Step 1: Put Villain on a range.
Step 2: Figure out your pot odds.
Step 3: Use 1 & 2 to decide if a call is profitable.

Range: trips or full house but a boat is more likely because he's going to push a boat basically every time, while trips call at least some of the time
we can't pokerstove it because we need to use Bayes' theorem and assume his calling frequency with trips vs. his pushing frequency
pot %: 44%

what's the calling frequency with trips that will make us fold?
if he calls with trips 20% and pushes 80% while pushing a boat 100% of the time, 40% of the time we'll beat his range
step 3: I fold

[DaddyDeez]

seems like QJ to me & i;m not smart enough to lay this down.

[daven]

Turn: ($1.60) 3 (3 players)
Hero bets $0.90,

bet turn harder please

[fjuanl]

I think most people are raising the flop with QJ/QT so your hand is goot. QQ-TT aren't limping behind (maybe TT). Bet more on the turn and b/c the river. Villian has KQ here like 99.8% of the time?

[settecba]

Step 1: Put Villain on a range.
Step 2: Figure out your pot odds.
Step 3: Use 1 & 2 to decide if a call is profitable.

Range: trips or full house but a boat is more likely because he's going to push a boat basically every time, while trips call at least some of the time
we can't pokerstove it because we need to use Bayes' theorem and assume his calling frequency with trips vs. his pushing frequency
pot %: 44%

what's the calling frequency with trips that will make us fold?
if he calls with trips 20% and pushes 80% while pushing a boat 100% of the time, 40% of the time we'll beat his range
step 3: I fold

You are right, this approach to the problem is the correct one. However, I think you should consider in the analysis the frequency of when villain has trips or a boat, to make it more accurate.

I dont know if i explained myself right, hope so...

[WillburForce]

bet turn properly.

Call - shrug if you're beat.

Step 1: Put Villain on a range.
Step 2: Figure out your pot odds.
Step 3: Use 1 & 2 to decide if a call is profitable.

Range: trips or full house but a boat is more likely because he's going to push a boat basically every time, while trips call at least some of the time
we can't pokerstove it because we need to use Bayes' theorem and assume his calling frequency with trips vs. his pushing frequency
pot %: 44%

what's the calling frequency with trips that will make us fold?
if he calls with trips 20% and pushes 80% while pushing a boat 100% of the time, 40% of the time we'll beat his range
step 3: I fold

You are right, this approach to the problem is the correct one. However, I think you should consider in the analysis the frequency of when villain has trips or a boat, to make it more accurate.

I dont know if i explained myself right, hope so...

You can't because the chance of continuing with a top pair hand is lower than continuing with two pair. Maybe this villain folds TPNK to any turn bet. That would make us want to call a river raise even less. But if villain raises two pair on the flop we would want to call his bet on the river more. Unfortunately seeing as his stats are nitty he probably folds hands like Q9o PF which makes his range really narrow here and weighed towards two pair on the flop.

[spoonitnow]

Step 1: Put Villain on a range.
Step 2: Figure out your pot odds.
Step 3: Use 1 & 2 to decide if a call is profitable.

Range: trips or full house but a boat is more likely because he's going to push a boat basically every time, while trips call at least some of the time
we can't pokerstove it because we need to use Bayes' theorem and assume his calling frequency with trips vs. his pushing frequency
pot %: 44%

what's the calling frequency with trips that will make us fold?
if he calls with trips 20% and pushes 80% while pushing a boat 100% of the time, 40% of the time we'll beat his range
step 3: I fold

I thought I made it simple enough that it couldn't become screwed up, but I have been proven wrong. More specifically, you haven't listed any specific ranges, or how often those ranges occur.

The process is only correct if I reach the same conclusion you do, amirite?

[spoonitnow]

Fine, we'll do it your way.

Range: trips or full house but a boat is more likely because he's going to push a boat basically every time, while trips call at least some of the time
we can't pokerstove it because we need to use Bayes' theorem and assume his calling frequency with trips vs. his pushing frequency
pot %: 44%

what's the calling frequency with trips that will make us fold?
if he calls with trips 20% and pushes 80% while pushing a boat 100% of the time, 40% of the time we'll beat his range
step 3: I fold

The range you have given is very unclear. You assert that a boat is more likely than trips since he shoved, but you haven't listed which hands are a part of his likely range to make trips, which is an essential piece of information and without it you can't make the claim you have.

You are offered the chance to call $6.75 in a pot of $15.35, so you need 30.5% equity to break even on the call.

For an example, suppose that when the river comes, Villain's range is AQ, KQ, QJ, QT. There are 8 combinations of AQ and KQ available each, and 6 combinations of QJ and QT available each. Suppose he just calls with trips 2/3 of the time. Then you have 30.8% equity, making it a roughly break even call.

[swiggidy]

The process is only correct if I reach the same conclusion you do, amirite?

wtf dude, people are trying to help you and you're more and more becoming a prick.

Do you just want someone to just tell you call/fold, or actually help you out because spoon was the only one doing the latter.

lol @ needing bayes theorem.

[bjsaust]

Whilst unlikely here, it never hurts to allow for a small chance of bluff/stupid play in your analysis/estimations.

[spoonitnow]

Whilst unlikely here, it never hurts to allow for a small chance of bluff/stupid play in your analysis/estimations.

I agree 100%.

Moreover, when people ask me for ideas in analysis, this is something that I stress as well, but only as an afterthought. I prefer to have it reserved as an afterthought so that it can't become a point of debate and confuse us from the core of the situation at hand. Instead, when we come to a point that each action seems roughly equal in EV (like the example I gave above) we can then look to outside variables like this and others for guidance.

[spoonitnow]

The process is only correct if I reach the same conclusion you do, amirite?

There is nothing better than to know that you don't know.
Not knowing, yet thinking you know--this is sickness.
Only when you are sick of being sick can you be cured.

The process is only correct if I reach the same conclusion you do, amirite?

wtf dude, people are trying to help you and you're more and more becoming a prick.

Do you just want someone to just tell you call/fold, or actually help you out because spoon was the only one doing the latter.

lol @ needing bayes theorem.

Until his last post he didn't actually explain his thought process. So in retrospect I'm glad I appeared like a jerk since I got some help out of it :) (if I hadn't posted anything he probably would have forgotten about the thread)

Thanks for explaining that spoon

BTW: Bayes' theorem is like basic shit and spoon used it in his post he just didn't say he did

[spoonitnow]

The process is only correct if I reach the same conclusion you do, amirite?

wtf dude, people are trying to help you and you're more and more becoming a prick.

Do you just want someone to just tell you call/fold, or actually help you out because spoon was the only one doing the latter.

lol @ needing bayes theorem.

Until his last post he didn't actually explain his thought process. So in retrospect I'm glad I appeared like a jerk since I got some help out of it (if I hadn't posted anything he probably would have forgotten about the thread)

Thanks for explaining that spoon

BTW: Bayes' theorem is like basic shit and spoon used it in his post he just didn't say he did

I gave you the three steps that complete the thought process needed for this situation (and any other situation where a call is being compared to a fold to end the action). You did a pretty bad job of one step, and completely disregarded the other two.

Bayes' theorem is just a fancy term for the type of thought process you go through when you put people on ranges. If they raise preflop it's more likely they have AA than if they fold preflop, for a basic example.

[swiggidy]

Until his last post he didn't actually explain his thought process. So in retrospect I'm glad I appeared like a jerk since I got some help out of it (if I hadn't posted anything he probably would have forgotten about the thread)

Since he didn't explain his thought process in great detail you decided not to think. This is exactly why I said reading FTR doesn't count as studying for those following from home.

BTW: Bayes' theorem is like basic shit and spoon used it in his post he just didn't say he did

Yet another example of assuming you know more than the people trying to help you.

Until his last post he didn't actually explain his thought process. So in retrospect I'm glad I appeared like a jerk since I got some help out of it :) (if I hadn't posted anything he probably would have forgotten about the thread)

Since he didn't explain his thought process in great detail you decided not to think. This is exactly why I said reading FTR doesn't count as studying for those following from home.

BTW: Bayes' theorem is like basic shit and spoon used it in his post he just didn't say he did

Yet another example of assuming you know more than the people trying to help you.

Well I did go through his steps. I made a mistake in my pot % calculation somehow, spoon corrected me. I don't know why you're trying to yell at me for. Spoon explained how he thinks about the hand and for that I'm grateful. You said that you don't need to use Bayes' theorem in this hand which is incorrect. You say that I'm assuming I know more than the people trying to help me, but you're the one that was incorrect on this one issue.
tl;dr
I don't care, let's just drop it I don't feel like starting drama.

[settecba]

thanks spoon, what you perfectly explained was exactly what I was thinking when i answered iopq´s thought process, I just was too lazy to explain it properly and provide a useful example like you did.

P.S.: have to work more on willpower...