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Beginner Poker Math - Homework
THIS POST CONTAINS BASIC POKER MATH EXERCISES FOR BEGINNERS TO COMPLETE. IF YOU WANT TO TRY TO FIGURE THEM OUT FOR YOURSELF DO NOT READ PAST THIS INITIAL POST.
The exercises here are simple and some questions are along the lines of asking what colour the sky is (blue) simply to make the person reading the exercises in numerical order think about the factors that they need to focus on going into the next question and not because it's a meaningful answer in itself.
Situation:
$0.10/$0.25 blinds, 9 man table:
Preflop: Villain raises UTG to $1, you call on the button with 8d6d and the blinds fold
Flop, pot is $2.35, 2 players: Tc5d2d, villain raises to $2, you call
Turn, pot is $6.35, 2 players: 7s, villain goes all-in for $6
The bad play:
Calling preflop was bad here in every sense of the word because stacks are too short to play this hand profitably (villain has $9 which is 36bb). But at least we hit the flop as well as could be hoped. Don't judge the preflop play - just setting up a calculation exercise.
Villain:
His stats are something like 40/4/1 but to make our math simple let's say we know him much better than that. Couple of villain profiles:
A) PF raise is only done with AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, AQ and done with these hands 100% of the time. cbets flop 100% of the time. Shoves turn 100% of the time.
B) PF raise is only done with AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, AQ and done with these hands 100% of the time. cbets flop 100% of the time. Shoves turn only with AA, KK, QQ, JJ and 100% of the time.
C) PF raise is only done with QQ, JJ, AK, AQ (limp/re-raises AA, KK) 100% of the time. cbets flop 100% of the time. Shoves turn 100% of the time.
D) PF raise is only done with QQ, JJ, AK, AQ (limp/re-raises AA, KK) 100% of the time. cbets flop 100% of the time. Shoves turn 100% only with QQ, JJ, AdKd, AdQd
Note that in the villain profiles above I have emphasised that he plays specific pocket holdings the same way EVERY time. No limping, no slowplaying, no plays based on mood or flow or anything like that. The reason I've chosen this assumption is that it makes hand combinations exactly accurate when it comes to doing equity calculations.
Note further that it's not important to strive for exact numbers here. I don't care if you calculate the equity needed with 17 digits or use an odds notation and abbreviating 31 to 15 to 2 to 1. What's important for these exercises is PICKING THE RIGHT NUMBERS FOR WHAT YOU WANT TO DETERMINE AND COMBINING THEM IN A WAY THAT ANSWERS THE QUESTION.
Questions:
1) On the turn, how much do you have to call to win how much? On the turn, what are your pot odds?
2) On the turn, how large a percentage of the time do you need to win the hand for calling to be profitable (same question as 1) just using % notation)
3) Given profile A-B, how many hand combinations are possible for each of the villain's starting hands?
4) Given profile A-B, on the flop, how many hand combinations are overpairs or top set, and how many hand combinations are two unpaired overcards? Express overpair / top set as a percentage of his range.
5) Given profile C-D, how many hand combinations are possible for each of the villain's starting hands?
6) Given profile C-D, on the flop, how many hand combinations are overpairs or top set, and how many hand combinations are two unpaired overcards? Express overpair / top set as a percentage of his range.
7) On the turn, how many outs do you have against AA, KK, QQ, JJ?
8) On the turn, how many outs do you have against AK, AQ if they are not AdKd or AdQd?
9) On the turn, how many outs do you have against AdKd, AdQd?
10) How many hand combinations are AK, AQ when not AdKd, AdQd?
11) How many hand combinations are AdKd, AdQd?
12) Given a hand being in the AA, KK, QQ, JJ range - what is the expected value of calling the turn shove?
13) Given a hand being in the AK, AQ (no AdKd, no AdQd) range - what is the expected value of calling the turn shove?
14) Given a hand being in the AdKd, AdQd range - what is the expected value of calling the turn shove?
15) Combine the results from 12-14 based on the number of hand combinations to give you an expected value of calling the turn shove with all of range A
16) Combine the results from 12-14 based on the number of hand combinations to give you an expected value of calling the turn shove with all of range B
17) How many hand combinations are QQ, JJ and given a hand being in the QQ, JJ range - what is the expected value of calling the turn shove?
18) Combine the results from 12-14 + 17 based on the number of hand combinations to give you an expected value of calling the turn shove with all of range C
18) Combine the results from 12-14 + 17 based on the number of hand combinations to give you an expected value of calling the turn shove with all of range D
For the flop assume that we are doing two streets of cards, but only one street of betting. By this I mean that AA, KK, QQ, JJ will stack off in any case, and AK, AQ will either stack off, or check and FOLD on the turn so you win no more money from them. AdKd and AdQd will also stack off.
These flop exercises revolve around implied odds, which is value extracted on a later street if you decide to continue in the hand. In the present case we have enough knowledge that we can make a complete expected value calculation and state exactly against which of villain ranges A-D we should call or fold and what the expected value of each is. But I will focus on implied odds calculations here.
For the below calculations feel free to ignore the following
- If a pair or unpaired hand contains one diamond the board can go runner, runner diamonds and have you lose to a better flush. Just assume a flush card hitting means you win.
- Your runner runner straight draw (which became strong in the present case through the 7s coming on the turn) - just count the flush outs on the flop, but consider them clean outs to win unless up against AdKd, AdQd.
- Ignore that if you hit your pair to beat AK / AQ you may still be outdrawn by an A, K or Q on the river.
19) On the flop, how much do you have to call to win how much if the opponents hand is in stack-off range? Use pot odds or % notation as you prefer.
20) On the flop, how much do you have to call to win how much if the opponents hand is in non-stack-off range? Use pot odds or % notation as you prefer.
21) Combine hand combinations for the ranges with outs for the subranges to approximate a single number of outs for a whole range. Example - 40% 6 outs, 40% 10 outs, 20% 2 outs is 6.8 outs for the range. Do this for all of ranges A-D
22) Does the implied odds justify calling the flop against all ranges A-D? (Combine 19-21)
21) Assume 9 clean outs and a villain hand in the stack-off range - how much would the villain need to bet you for a call to be break-even based on implied odds?
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