raising big with low pp

[LuckySlevin]

When I put low pp's (3-3) in pokerstove against AK suited, the low pp's come out favourite.

But I was watching a past poker game with Phil Hellmuth and someone else, and phil got beat he had AK and someone called his big raise preflop with 7-7, no A-K showed up and they ended up busting half of his chip stack.

After the game Phil berated the player saying he couldn't beleive he put that much money in with 7-7 that it was poor play.

I know he has a tendency to mouth off to his oponents when he gets beat, but is there any truth in this?

The reason I ask is someone was calling big with a range something like - AK, AQ, QK, - so when I got 33's I went all in with just two people behind me as every one else had folded. The guy who I thought would call did call and did have A-K.

He hit a King on the flop so I lost, I went back to pokerstove to check and it definately says 3-3 is favourite against A-K.

But in light of what Phil said about pocket 7's I'm just wondering if it was a particularly bad play by me or just a coin flip that I lost?

Thanks.

I will make it in poker, but it will be in spite of forum input, and not because of it.

I shan't be posting any more. But remember my name, you may well see me around some time.

Dude, are you kidding me?

Nice avatar by the way, real original.

[LuckySlevin]

Thanks imitation is the highest form of flattery... but i've changed it because it wasn't really fair !

I decided to take the advice in the replies that said don't cut my nose off to spite my face.

[Stacks]

33 is a favorite over AKs. However, that doesn't mean you made a correct play shoving 33 over his raise. You put the guy on a very poor range. Just because he raises doesn't mean he has AQ,AK,KQ. He would almost always be raising high pocketpairs too, as well as some lower pocket pairs, and maybe some other unmade hands.

So while 33 is a 52% favorite over your range [AQ+,KQ], it is a significant underdog when you start adding in other made hands (pocket pairs). 33 has only 38% equity against [99+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+,KQo].

And yes Phil likes to mouth off berating players anytime he loses even if the play wasn't a bad one. However, you have to keep everything in context here. I can't tell you whether dudes call wtih 77 was bad or not, as I don't have all the information, so it could have been wrong or it could have been right.

[Stacks]

Also just something to think about that I find interesting.

AKs vs 96s: AKs is 63.4% to win.

AKs vs 33: 33 is 50.8% to win.

96s vs 33: 96s is is 50.56% to win.

So while AKs is ahead of 96s, but behind of 33. 96s is ahead of 33. Just thought that was interesting.

[LuckySlevin]

Thanks stacks does the fact that i've received a pair change the probability of him having received a pair?

I mean in a four player game intuition tells me it's likely for someone else to have a pair if I already have one, because it's less likely for two players to both be dealt pairs out of four, than for one.

I know intuition can be wrong sometimes though with these things.

Have I got this right? Or does the fact that I have a pair not change the probability of him also having received a pair?

Because if it doesn't and we both have an equal chance I can see why it wasn't a great call, because if he does have a pair, chances are it's higher than my pair.

[speedcake]

the less players there are at the table, the less chance someone else has a pair I guess.

But that doesn't mean you should be overplaying yours when you get them. :P

[GatorJH]

Thanks stacks does the fact that i've received a pair change the probability of him having received a pair?

I mean in a four player game intuition tells me it's likely for someone else to have a pair if I already have one, because it's less likely for two players to both be dealt pairs out of four, than for one.

I know intuition can be wrong sometimes though with these things.

Have I got this right? Or does the fact that I have a pair not change the probability of him also having received a pair?

Because if it doesn't and we both have an equal chance I can see why it wasn't a great call, because if he does have a pair, chances are it's higher than my pair.

I am not sure what the probability is that two players in the same hand get dealt a pair, but I am sure that it is negligible to the point that you can't rule it out.

You mentioned above that you went into Pokerstove to find out that your 33 was a favorite against AK. Now try this. Assume you think that villain is only raising with the top 10% of hands. Go into Pokerstove, put your 33 hand in for you then type in "10%" for villains hand. Now see how your hand stacks up.

Also, it sounds like your specific hand was in tournament play. If that is correct then there is more to just probabilities that determine whether you should be pushing or not. One of the main factors is called ICM. There are some good posts in the SNG forum Digest on ICM and I would suggest that you read through them as it is an important concept to know if you are playing tournament poker.

Edit: Oh, and I forgot to say - Welcome back.

[LuckySlevin]

Thanks

And that's interesting from the replies It's clear I had the concept wrong, I made the mistake of ranging him on four card combinations and not accounting for the lesser hands that he'll be just as likely to play.

I'll keep that in mind going forward, cheers all

[bjsaust]

Yeah, the others covered it. If you're flashed AK in a live game, then sure you're a favorite (slight favorite) but without knowing for sure, most people will play 99+ the same as they play AK, and you fare badly against that whole range.

[sarbox68]

Dude... you are absolutely right that any PP is a favorite against any non-pair pre-flop. But as you've noticed, there a couple of gaps in just stopping there...
1) If they're willing to all-in PF w/ AJ or AQ, you can bet they're willing to go in with pretty much any PP. So you gotta at least stick the higher pps and (if they're following your original logic...) almost all of them if they think YOU might shove w/ AK, AQ, AJ etc. You're equity goes down hill really fast once you start widening their range...
2) The other problem is you got 5 cards to go... and only 2 outs (pretty much...) to improve. That's why raising PF w/ small pp is okay, but if the flop comes AKT, you'll prolly be re-thinking the shove on your 33 -- which you can, 'cause you haven't already committed your chips.
3) And finally, even if you could narrow your villain to only calling AI PF w/ AK ... nothing else, ever... you will come out ahead over the long term shoving any pp HU pre-flop. However... that's long term... as you'll lose your stack 47 times to the 52 you win it. That's a sh1tload of variance...

Just some other thoughts... oh yeah, and wb

[LuckySlevin]

Thanks fort the input sars. Also just to explain a bit more it's a sng of 180 players to get into poker after dark second round, and you can enter as many as you like and they run every 4 minutes... that's why i took a bit of a flyer on that hand, although I am trying to play tighter as ive entered about 50 times so far and furthest i got was 4th!

[Stacks]

Dude... you are absolutely right that any PP is a favorite against any non-pair pre-flop. But as you've noticed, there a couple of gaps in just stopping there...

Just went over that. When reading NLHET&P I ran into a quote that said T7s is a favorite against 22 all-in preflop. That got me thinking, so I opened up Pokerstove and started messing with a few low pps against unmade hands and a pp is not always a favorite. Against specific suited connectors, small pps are generally on the losing end.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.433% 48.57% 00.86% 19959564 354900.00 { 33 }
Hand 1: 50.567% 49.70% 00.86% 20425932 354900.00 { 96s }


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.907% 48.36% 00.55% 19873092 225258.00 { 55 }
Hand 1: 51.093% 50.55% 00.55% 20771688 225258.00 { 98s }


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.624% 49.38% 00.25% 20292324 100872.00 { 77 }
Hand 1: 50.376% 50.13% 00.25% 20601228 100872.00 { QJs }

Plus more. I know the differences are rather small, but still. PPs aren't a favorite against all unmade overcard hands. It seems as if suited connectors fair well against small pps. A note to take from this is hands like 98s,87s, and in some cases even hands like 95s, are a favorite against very small pps; however, hands such as AKs aren't a favorite against the same pps.

I can only assume (correctly??) that it is because of the straight possibilities. A hand such as AK can only make a straight in 1 way. A T,J,Q must come on the board. However, a hand such as 87s can make a straight in numerous different ways. 1) a 9TJ...2)69T....3)569....4)456.... That's all I can come up with. Take it for what you will.

[LuckySlevin]

Thats opened my eyes quite a bit, I read before that suited connectors that are sequential (67s) are stronger than not sequential, i'm going to re read that to make sure it's right because what you've pointed out about the numerous combinations for making a straight with certain connectors make me think that sequential connectors might not always be best...

[Stacks]

Suited connectors (sequential) have more straight possibilites than suited gappers (non-sequential). Using the previous 87s example. Let's also analyze say 86s,85s, and 84s.

86s = 1)79T....2)579.....3)754

85s = 1)679....2)467

84s = 1)567

As you can see suited connectors (without a gap) have more chances for a straight. Both still have the same chance of making a flush (11 cards). And if you are comparing a suited connector against a suited one-gapper and each have the same high card (ie. 8 in 87s and 86s) than the suited connector will still fare better in most instances as it's two cards are of higher value.

[LuckySlevin]

Thanks looking at those a big drawback with the gapped cards is that they have to have the middle card to form the straight, whereas the possibilities are two fold with the sequential connectors, because you have the lower and higher card draws. I guess this is why they can make more straights.

The exception though would be if the connectors are very low, 3-4, you would have to get the high card here because there are only 2 cards before the 3, so effectively I guess you could class that as a gapper in terms of quality of hand.

Does that sound about right?

[a500lbgorilla]

The probability that one hand will beat one other hand is not a huge factor in the strength of that hand.

[GatorJH]

The probability that one hand will beat one other hand is not a huge factor in the strength of that hand.

Agreed.

Slevin and Stacks,
You guys keep discussing how one particular hand fares against another particular hand. And although that is not a bad thing to know you will rarely be able to put a player on a single hand.

You should instead be focusing on how certain hands fare against a RANNGE of hands. When you are playing with hands in Pokerstove don't just put in a single hand for villain, put in a range.

To help you get started I am going to give you three example hands: 98s, 33 and JJ and show you how they stand up against the top 15% of hands. Note: For hand 1 I just typed in 15%, not each of the specific hands.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,736,276,256 games 0.005 secs 347,255,251,200 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.536% 60.95% 00.59% 1045745658 10051590.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 38.464% 37.88% 00.59% 649879770 10051590.00 { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }


---

2,054,764,800 games 0.005 secs 410,952,960,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.222% 42.87% 00.35% 872140548 7091166.00 { 33 }
Hand 1: 56.778% 56.43% 00.35% 1147894272 7091166.00 { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }


---

1,308,200,256 games 0.005 secs 261,640,051,200 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.927% 35.57% 00.36% 460435188 4635981.00 { 98s }
Hand 1: 64.073% 63.72% 00.36% 824794674 4635981.00 { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }


---

As you can see you are a big favorite with JJ, a slight underdog with 33 and a bigger underdog with 98s against someone who plays the top 15% of hands.

Now lets give you a couple of scenarios to work with as well as break the 98s hand down to either hit your hand or not hit it.

In both scenario's you are on the button against a mid position 4xBB raise and you know that he raises with the top 15% of hands from mid position. You call, and both the blinds fold.

SCENARIO 1

The flop hits with

Go figure out (and post) what your equity is with villains range and you holding: 98s, 9c8c, JJ and 33.

Scenario 2

Now lets change the flop to

What does that do to the equity ranges? Post results please.

Also, how would you play each of these hands in the two scenario's assuming villain puts in a 3/4 PSB in each scenario?