Another hand reading exercise

[martindcx1e]

Ok hand reading exercise time. Both players have $25. UTG is 23/6/.75, and CO is 20/8/1.3. Go ahead and adjust ranges for each player after each street.

$25nl 9 players

UTG raises to $0.85
Folds to CO
CO raises to $2
Folds to UTG
UTG calls $1.15

Flop: (Pot = $4.35)
UTG check, CO checks

Turn (Pot = $4.35)
UTG bets $3, CO raises to $6, UTG calls $3

River (Pot = $16.35)
UTG checks, CO bets $7, UTG calls $7

[Erpel]

(beginner)
Ok, I'll just meander around this one before getting into the meat of it. First a few observations based on stats. Both seem stationish, with UTG probably the bigger station. At least CO sometimes bets.

Notable for stations with low low aggression there's actually not a bad bit of betting going on in this hand, so they probably both have something.

I'm going to assume that both players are straightforward - tricky players are unlikely to end up with these kinds of stats.

If we disregard cards completely and only look at betting it looks as if CO is winning. He 3bet pre, checked to trap on the flop, min-raised on the turn to keep UTG in and bet for value on the river. Basically the only thing he didn't do that communicates strength is size his bets properly to get the stacks in.

However, looking at UTG he seems to also have a strong line, considering that he's a bit more of a station. He makes a rare raise from UTG and is content to flat call a 3bet - not desperate to put money in on the flop, which could be pot control or a WA/WB play, bets turn a good amount for value and doesn't get scared by a min-raise, is content with the pot size on the river and happy to check it down or call a small raise.

For both players, looking at the hand as a whole, straight and flush draws are basically impossible holdings. The QJ holding did complete a straight on the river, but none of the betting is really consistent with that. (Note as I begin on ranges - I may need to retract this)

The general principle for reading this hand I think is that we have somewhat loose and passive players betting, raising and calling - which is unusual for both (more for UTG than CO, balanced by CO taking more aggressive moves).

On range considerations my initial thought was to make UTG have a very narrow range (TT+, AK, AQs, KQs) based on his low PFR stat and being out of position, but tbh I don't think he's necessarily positionally aware, and I would think it quite likely that he likes high card hands, and he could be playing some danger hands like KJ or AT - the big spread between VPIP and PFR and very low aggression suggests a potentially poor player who could make that mistake.

CO strikes me as someone who plays a somewhat loose, not completely passive small-pot strategy with a narrower range than ordinarily associated with loose play. He is more likely than UTG imo to consider what his opponent may be holding and is more likely to have a read on UTG than UTG on him. Although I think he knows UTG is likely to be playing two high cards, I don't expect him to 3bet with something like T9s. I consider his 3bet something of a "call me" 3bet due to bet sizing. Maybe he wants to inflate the pot a bit, expecting UTG to miss the flop (and to KNOW if he does) and fold to a cbet, or maybe he has a strong holding. I don't think he wouild take this line with a medium or small pocket pair - a medium pocket pair would probably have called for set odds. He's more likely to have unpaired cards, and I think I make Axs hands more likely for him than middle connectors also. I don't think he would play K-high hands (even KQs) vs UTG in this way. I think (and I think CO thinks) that UTG will play his position in this way with any two high cards, without one necessarily being an A, dramatically increasing the value of an A if CO holds it.

And now - to ranges:
UTG PFR: TT+, AQ+, ATs+, KQ, KJs, QJs
CO PF 3bet: JJ+, A8s+, AQo+
UTG PF call: Discount KK+, otherwise same. A station having already decided to play this hand is not folding here to a small 3bet.

Flop: Since both parties checked, we cannot reduce any range by means of asking what they would have folded - we can only ask what they would definitely have bet. Based on what I think about these players, it is unlikely anyone has any kind of draw on the flop, making it likely that both are in a WA/WB mode or with a simple "missed flop" mode - making it hard to reduce ranges. KK would be slowplayed by most players, but passive players especially would bet it to put money in the pot and since they don't we can probably rule that almost completely out. There's a lot of WA/WB going on.

UTG flop check: TT-QQ, AQ+, ATs+, KQ, KJs, QJs
CO flop check: AA, QQ, JJ, A8s+, AQo+

Turn: Turn sees a decent sized bet from UTG that looks like a value bet, and a min-raise from CO, which is called. A min-raise gives very favourable pot odds to someone who just showed strength and is usually a trapping play with a very strong hand - basically AK is the weakest hand that plays this way. Both show on the turn that they definitely have a hand worth playing.

UTG Turn bet: TT, AK, KQ, KJs
CO Turn raise: AA, AK
UTG Turn call: TT, AK, KQ

River sees UTG check - he's content to check it down. He is presumably in pot control mode. He has a hand and he thinks he's put enough money in the pot for the size of his hand. CO makes a "call me" bet of less than half the pot. This is the second "call me" bet he makes in this hand (the other was PF), which makes me slightly more likely to weigh AA (although the number of AK combinations available - even with UTG holding one K - still makes it the more likely holding). CO's bet is weak enough that I think he hopes to get re-raised (though I have no idea why he would think he would get re-raised by UTG with any holding), but he probably couldn't make it much bigger without folding out KQ, so as a value bet I guess it's fine. For UTG it's tempting to suggest he might take a more offensive line with TT, but since it's not top set, and I don't think he knows that KK is unlikely for CO and that he is afraid of AA I think he would just call.

UTG river check: TT, AK, KQ
CO river bet: AA, AK
UTG river call: TT, AK, KQ

I don't think CO thinks TT is in UTG's range. CO probably does best in this hand.

[Erpel]

I write long posts to expose my thinking and hope that my mistakes can be corrected at the point of failure (instead of me misapplying the correction at the wrong point in my thinking) - if you're a beginner you should disregard my post, look at the initial post and write your own (long or short as you please).

If you know better and my post is a load of rubbish please tell me.

[Monty3038]

Ok hand reading exercise time. Both players have $25. UTG is 23/6/.75, and CO is 20/8/1.3. Go ahead and adjust ranges for each player after each street.

$25nl 9 players

UTG raises to $0.85
Folds to CO
CO raises to $2
Folds to UTG
UTG calls $1.15

Flop: (Pot = $4.35)
UTG check, CO checks

Turn (Pot = $4.35)
UTG bets $3, CO raises to $6, UTG calls $3

River (Pot = $16.35)
UTG checks, CO bets $7, UTG calls $7

Ok, let me take a shot at this. I don't play cash often but let me see what I can come up with. I don't remember what the x/x/x stats mean so I'll do this blind... short lunch break so not a lot of time.


UTG raises to open, ok, no worries there, he has a hand, I put him at top 30% here so far. CO re-raises him, 2.5 x his raise roughly, so I put him on top 20% of hands. UTG calls so he feels he is still ok. Might not change his range yet.

Flop helps neither of them or they are hiding it by their checks, so now I narrow them down to each has A-x. TT+ should have bet here, K x would have definately bet here... so I have them each on A-x.

Turn shows a ten... well lets see... UTG bet 3/4 pot, I'm thinking he has AT or potentially JQ, that puts him on a straight draw and/or a pair with good kicker... CO raises him. Let's say CO's range just narrowed a bit further... I'm putting CO on AK, JQ, TT or AT only, otherwise I think he's folding out.

River comes... UTG checks, he was on A-x definately pre-flop, may be holding two pair now with AT. He checks to see what CO has, CO bets a little less than 1/2 pot... that peaks my interest, like he is looking for the call... I put him on straight or two pair.

How close am I? (Will wait a while to let others answer).

[martindcx1e]

I'll pm the answer if anyone just can't wait

Monty, the 1st number is the % of the time they are voluntarily putting money into the pot preflop. The 2nd number is how often they are raising preflop. So UTG raises 6% overall and CO 8% overall. That's just for raising, not re-raising. The 3rd number is a measure of total aggression. UTG is especially passive with his .75 number. So if you think that changes anything you are allowed a 2nd try lol.

[Monty3038]

Thanks, nah, I'll stick with my first guess. And then see how bad I am at this whole thing.

[daven]

AK vs KK

[BrianMac]

UTG - AK

CO - TT

i think hes capable of re raising PF with 10's, its happened to me : (

[TonyB73]

PREFLOP: One player with PFR of 6% is raising UTG, the other with PFR of 8% is 3-betting that raise. I put both of them on pretty tight ranges right there. UTG I think TT+, AJs+, AQo+, maybe KQ and QJ. I'm discounting AA and KK a little because he just flatted the 3-bet, but with those stats they're still definitely possible. CO I think is pretty similar range - maybe JJ+, AQ+, KQ, QJ.

FLOP: Both check. UTG who could still have any of the above and be checking either as a trap or because he missed. I would bet AA and TT-QQ, but with 0.75 AF I really can't assume he would too. He could also easily slowplay KK. CO checking behind is more interesting - looks like he got a little scared by the flop suggesting TT, JJ, QQ, AQ, AJ, QJ. Again I would bet AA or TP (AK, Kx) here, but low AF says CO probably wouldn't. Flush draw with say AQs or AJs? Maybe, and looking for the free card.

TURN: UTG bets ~70% pot, CO raises to 2xbet, UTG calls. I think TT-AA, AT-AK, KQ are all possibilities for UTG. For CO again similar, with a T becoming much more likely. Flush draw very unlikely now, but I think a straight draw comes much more into play - in my experience these types of players will play an OESD all day and twice on weekends in this spot.

RIVER: UTG I think has something he doesn't like that much any more but can't lay down to a less than 1/2 pot bet, which suggests JJ-QQ, AQ, AJ, KQ most likely. Surely AA, KK, AK bet or raise here. CO is likely betting for value, so I think AA, KK, TT, AK-AT and maybe QJ for the straight are most likely, with JJ-QQ possible but far less likely for someone with his stats.

I think CO has the better hand most of the time.

[daven]

PREFLOP: One player with PFR of 6% is raising UTG, the other with PFR of 8% is 3-betting that raise.

And now - to ranges:
UTG PFR: TT+, AQ+, ATs+, KQ, KJs, QJs
CO PF 3bet: JJ+, A8s+, AQo+
UTG PF call: Discount KK+, otherwise same. A station having already decided to play this hand is not folding here to a small 3bet.

gidday erpel, I'll start to comment on your hand analyses sometimes!

check out some hand % stats, your ranges are too wide. I had a link bookmarked on my old computer somewhere.
Add up your suggested range for UTG and it probably comes to a lot more than 6%.
When it comes to 3-betting consider that most players who play with full stacks below 100nl 3-bet AA/KK/QQ/AKs and not much else

[martindcx1e]

UTG had AK
CO had KK

[Monty3038]

UTG had AK
CO had KK

Well I think I hit UTG pretty well, though a little wide, I think I missed KK on CO as an option though, had him really on TT.

[daven]

UTG had AK
CO had KK

i thought i already told them that