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Considerations from a newbie - take with a grain of salt:
You're both starting the hand at 180bb which affects his pre-flop implied odds to put more hands in his range (particularly all pocket pairs)
Depending how aggressive he is AK can be in his range. (If aggressive he could have raised AK.) Depending on how loose he is any (suited) A or K can be in his range (also depending on how he perceives you - do you steal blind or PF raise, c-bet on flop a lot in this position? Is he a victim to previous aggression?).
His flop-bet is .4 into a .65 pot (OOP) and when you flat-call it he may be putting you on a drawing hand (flush) or a lower pocket pair. I don't think he would read you on AA. His flop-bet doesn't give me that much information, except that he's willing to show a little aggression. He may or may not have remembered that you were the pre-flop aggressor. He could have done that bet with any two hearts in the range, or any low pocket pair or any 4 in addition to the trips/house options. Not that I can really see how he'd be holding a single four.
If you've done PF raise from this position before followed by a c-bet post flop when you're in position he may think you're blind stealing and doing this with total air or a compromised hand. He may have decided on the flop that rather than let you represent a scary hand he'll represent it, and when you call him he worries and suddenly doesn't want to see a showdown - his overbet may be a pure bluff to get you to fold. The flop-bet may be a semi-bluff if he is himself on a drawing hand.
If he had the 44 or the Kx would he have played this way?
Pre-flop, sure.
On the flop - not so sure. Would he have tried to check to lead you into aggression? Especially if you've done c-bet in this situation before he might have done that (unless he hasn't discovered check-raises). Maybe he'd play like this with Kx to not let you draw to a flush (and then overbet on the turn feeling the mad fear of the flush coming on the river). 44 he'd likely have played even more cool. Maybe he played either of those hands and was just greedy for a bigger payout.
Mfirst thought on reading the hand was that fold is a safe play - no point throwing away your chips to what could be a poorly played hand that you can't beat (or only have two outs to beat anyway).
The more I think about it, though, the more I think that he's responding to blind stealing and c-bet aggression and is playing something other than trips or house - and panicking, trying to intimidate you when you stay in the hand. If he was playing a flush draw it's possibly a call - if you're ready to fold it when a heart comes on the river. If he was playing any other pair maybe even re-raise is in order.
He could also have been playing 55 with pretty exactly this betting pattern.
Anyone else without a clue want to try to crack this one, or someone with more insight want to let us know how it's done?
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ARGHHH! what to do?
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Originally Posted by daven
