Snap call a bluff analysis

[Irisheyes]

This is an x-post from my blog.

Villain is 24/14/3.3 Reg. I want to analyze the river to see if I should call given that it's such a great card for him to bluff.

$2.5/$5 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($462.50)
UTG+1 ($500.00)
CO ($709.75)
BTN ($530.00)
Hero ($455.00)
BB ($500.00)

Pre-flop: ($7.5, 6 players) Hero is SB
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $17.5, 2 folds, Hero calls $15, 1 fold

Flop: ($40, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $24, Hero calls $24

Turn: ($88, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks

River: ($88, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $54, $54 to Hero ($413.5)?

Ok so I need to have the best hand 27.5% of the time to make a good call given his bet size. I'm going to give him a preflop raising and cbetting range of

22+,A7s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,ATo+,KTo+,QJo

I'm going to assume he bets the turn with all his Queens and full houses and that he checks behind on the river with 99/TT/JJ/KK because he has showdown value. So thins makes his river betting range something like this

AA,66-22,AKs,AJs-A7s,KJs-KTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,AKo,AJo-ATo,KJo-KTo

against which I actaully have 57% equity and it's a pretty clear call. Even if I take away a ton of his bluffs and give him a tighter river betting range of only

AA,AKs,AJs-A7s,KJs-KTs,AKo,AJo-ATo,KJo-KTo

which is 1/3 less bluffing combinations than the first range I should still call with 33% equity. Actually it turns out that I should still make the call with pairs as low as 22 as far as I can figure out no matter which range I give him.

Does this look correct to everyone?

[IowaSkinsFan]

Yes it looks somewhat correct and i agree to call. Timing is pretty important here too. Much more likely its a bluff if he bets quickly.