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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
20,790 games 0.047 secs 442,340 games/sec
Board: Kd 3d 5s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.330% 41.07% 00.26% 8539 53.50 { Ad4d }
Hand 1: 58.670% 58.41% 00.26% 12144 53.50 { KK+, 55, 33, AKs, AKo }
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This is a more accurate range IMO. While it is full ring, there are plently of players who don't open limp any hands in full ring as well as 6Max or other sized tables.
There is $10.75 in the pot already, and Hero has approximately $15 behind. It would cost Hero $2.25 to see the turn, so he would be getting slightly more than 5:1 pot odds on villain's flop raise. Assuming villain is not going to fold on the flop regardless of the action, there is no fold equity.
Hero has around 41% equity versus the above range of hands, and it's the same range of hands that would call a shove. Given the large amount of money already in the pot, going all in on the flop is a profitable play. He would need around 39% equity to make pushing 0EV.
Assuming there is exactly $10.75 in the pot, and Hero has exactly $15 behind, his actual EV when just going all in on the flop (assuming no fold equity) would be very close to +$0.76.
Hero needs a little less than 21% equity to make calling with his hand oEV. His hand only has around 41% equity when he gets to see both the turn and river. He is getting slightly more than 5:1 pot odds on villain's flop raise. So, given the pot odds Hero is getting, he doesn't need any implied odds to make just calling the flop bet a slightly profitable play.
Assuming it costs Hero $2.25 to call the flop raise, he will only get to see the turn card, and that there is $10.75 in the pot, his actual EV when just calling the flop bet (assuming no implied odds) would be very close to 0EV.
This villain is probably not going to fold 100% of the time on a draw completing turn, however, so there are significant implied odds to consider. Hero will almost always get villain's entire stack if the turn card is a deuce. Hero will also likely be able to win a portion of this villain's stack on either the turn or river on a diamond turn.
And there are plays Hero can make versus this opponent to see the river profitably even if he doesn't complete his draw on the turn. A blocking bet may induce villain to make another min raise, for example. And investing $4 into a $16 pot to see the river card with around 21% equity and the likelihood of being able to win this villain's stack on almost any draw completing river is +EV.
Versus a weak opponent, calling the flop bet and extracting value on draw completing cards and folding more cheaply when Hero misses is more profitable than going all in on the flop. This is because Hero can better take advantage of his implied odds on later streets versus a donkey than a competent opponent.
Although versus a more competent opponent, going all in on the flop is going to be more profitable because Hero won't be able to take advantage of his implied odds as well versus someone who will fold more often on a draw completing turn/river.
Also, a more competent opponent isn't going to be offering correct pot odds for Hero to call on the flop with a nice draw.
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Push or fold?
, A
(3 players)
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Originally Posted by 
