NLHE Blind stealing and pocket pairs

[sarbox68]

Two quick unrelated questions...

1) Am used to blind stealing being a pretty normal part of limit play. However, am reading through Sklansky NLHET&P and the sense I'm getting from him is that blind stealing isn't worth the risk because the blinds are too small and your exposure on a RR is too big. Unless I'm misunderstanding something, it almost seems to me like he's recommending limping instead so you keep the blinds in play and have position on them if you hit the flop to extract some decent money. Any thoughts/feedback?

2) With the exception of those I raise, I've been limping my PPs and calling any raises up to 4x blind IF the stacks behind the folks still in the pot are substantial enough (i.e. at least 25 bbs) Again from Sklansky, the suggestion that you raise with low PPs so that there's more money in the pot, allowing you place (and get called) on larger bets if you hit. To me that sounds great if I hit, but has me losing a lot more money the other 8 or so times when I flop sh!t. Any input on this?

Thanks!

[spoonitnow]

Stealing blinds has its place in no-limit play, but your positional advantage is probably more important to making it profitable than in limit.

For pocket pairs preflop, you want the best implied odds you can get, but you have to be reasonable about it. In general you'd prefer calling raises if you're getting implied odds of 20x or more, but the more you know about your opponent's hand and how they play, the lower implied odds you can get away with if you think they will pay you off. For example, if I raise with a small PP and get reraised by a tight player, I'll often be satisfied with 12:1 on a call if I think they will pay me off if I hit.

I hope that helps.

[ChrisBCritter]

I am by no means an expert, but I'll try and give my opinionated answers...

1) Generally speaking, blind stealing in NL is not likely going to be profitable. If you decide to play a hand, and you are the first one to enter the pot, then raising is likely to be the "correct" move. You will not find many people here saying that open limping into a pot is a recommended practice. "Hitting the Flop" is secondary to having position and making your opponents believe that you have a hand with a Continuation Bet.

2)Stop playing the cards in front of you every time!! Learn to bluff! As long as you aren't doing this every time, you'll get respected most of the time when you continue to bet after raising PF. Yes, you'll get looked up and run into a hand on occasion, but just remember that your opponents are ALSO missing the flop most of the time!!

Chris

[sarbox68]

Ah, limping... That's been my other struggle w/ Sklansky's starting hands. Unlike Limit, where he had you raising a lot of stuff as you moved into LP, his NLHE hands have you limping a ton of stuff even in LP. On top of that, his range seems pretty narrow to me. I've got about 12K hands in right now and have been trying to loosen up his starting req's, esp in LP... and am STILL only running 19.8/5.2 which seems too tight and too passive. Am tring to push my PFR number by raising much more in LP which will help, but I'm seeing 30+/12+ stats at my tables and going "how the heck does I get that????"

[spoonitnow]

Generally speaking, blind stealing in NL is not likely going to be profitable.

"Hitting the Flop" is secondary to having position and making your opponents believe that you have a hand with a Continuation Bet.

You seem to have some idea of what's going on, but blind stealing is made profitable because of position. You can play a crapload of hands in late position that will be made profitable because you have a huge advantage after the flop/you can pick up so many pots post-flop due to your position.

[SHAKE]

Stealing the blinds should be viewd as a Bonus not an objective.

[ChrisBCritter]

You seem to have some idea of what's going on, but blind stealing is made profitable because of position. You can play a crapload of hands in late position that will be made profitable because you have a huge advantage after the flop/you can pick up so many pots post-flop due to your position.

Hmph, my idea of stealing the blinds has nothing to do with seeing a flop... It sound's like your speaking of "playing poker"...

[asdpikas]

Generally speaking, blind stealing in NL is not likely going to be profitable.

"Hitting the Flop" is secondary to having position and making your opponents believe that you have a hand with a Continuation Bet.

You seem to have some idea of what's going on, but blind stealing is made profitable because of position. You can play a crapload of hands in late position that will be made profitable because you have a huge advantage after the flop/you can pick up so many pots post-flop due to your position.

I agree, you cant overdo it, but those blinds accumulate a clear benefit, and if you get called you can still win that pot most of the time, which is a larger benefit. So doing it from time to time is clearly a profitable move.

When in the small blind, it is always profitable to min-raise from time to time, if you are planning on calling, say 50/50 calls/raises. If you get called, you'll get that BB many times without opposition and gain initiative for an oop cbet that can get you the pot pst-flop even if you dont hit.

[spoonitnow]

I agree, you cant overdo it, but those blinds accumulate a clear benefit, and if you get called you can still win that pot most of the time, which is a larger benefit. So doing it from time to time is clearly a profitable move.

When in the small blind, it is always profitable to min-raise from time to time, if you are planning on calling, say 50/50 calls/raises. If you get called, you'll get that BB many times without opposition and gain initiative for an oop cbet that can get you the pot pst-flop even if you dont hit.

A minraise from the small blind is typically bad unless it's for deception purposes. You're giving the big blind 3:1 to see a flop when he's going to have position on you for the rest of the hand.

[asdpikas]

I agree, you cant overdo it, but those blinds accumulate a clear benefit, and if you get called you can still win that pot most of the time, which is a larger benefit. So doing it from time to time is clearly a profitable move.

When in the small blind, it is always profitable to min-raise from time to time, if you are planning on calling, say 50/50 calls/raises. If you get called, you'll get that BB many times without opposition and gain initiative for an oop cbet that can get you the pot pst-flop even if you dont hit.

A minraise from the small blind is typically bad unless it's for deception purposes. You're giving the big blind 3:1 to see a flop when he's going to have position on you for the rest of the hand.

...and that is why i don't recommend it all the time

if you are planning on calling, say 50/50 calls/raises.

[martindcx1e]

...and that is why i don't recommend it all the time

you just shouldn't recommend it

[Chopper]

1) dont you just hate it when your JJ+ on the button folds the blinds? or AJ+. start stealing them, or looking like thats what you are doing, and get them to play with your button raises...your premium payoffs will go up. its not blind stealing. its trying to show aggression with perceivable crap...then waking up with a real hand and forcing them to take their marginal hands WAY too far post flop.

just dont play much post flop when they 3bet you pf.

2) if you are 8% to hit your set, it doesnt matter what you do pf. that percentage wont change. if you raise them up...keep raising them up...they will pay down here. if you like to limp/call them, then, keep limp/calling them. your percentages wont change.

but, try and "time the market," and you will inevitably "buy high and sell low." you will raise it up, and miss...then, limp and hit with scardy-cats playing crap and folding to a bet.

just stay consistent.

or, raise them up when you OPEN a pot. and call limpers and raisers (following 10X or 15X) the rest of the time.

i love raising them up 3X UTG and getting a couple callers...when i hit my baby set with paint on the board, its the easiest bet flop, bet turn, bet river line you can run.

[spoonitnow]

1) dont you just hate it when your JJ+ on the button folds the blinds? or AJ+. start stealing them, or looking like thats what you are doing, and get them to play with your button raises...your premium payoffs will go up. its not blind stealing. its trying to show aggression with perceivable crap...then waking up with a real hand and forcing them to take their marginal hands WAY too far post flop.

just dont play much post flop when they 3bet you pf.

2) if you are 8% to hit your set, it doesnt matter what you do pf. that percentage wont change. if you raise them up...keep raising them up...they will pay down here. if you like to limp/call them, then, keep limp/calling them. your percentages wont change.

but, try and "time the market," and you will inevitably "buy high and sell low." you will raise it up, and miss...then, limp and hit with scardy-cats playing crap and folding to a bet.

just stay consistent.

or, raise them up when you OPEN a pot. and call limpers and raisers (following 10X or 15X) the rest of the time.

i love raising them up 3X UTG and getting a couple callers...when i hit my baby set with paint on the board, its the easiest bet flop, bet turn, bet river line you can run.

where did 8% to hit a set come from?

[Chopper]

1) dont you just hate it when your JJ+ on the button folds the blinds? or AJ+. start stealing them, or looking like thats what you are doing, and get them to play with your button raises...your premium payoffs will go up. its not blind stealing. its trying to show aggression with perceivable crap...then waking up with a real hand and forcing them to take their marginal hands WAY too far post flop.

just dont play much post flop when they 3bet you pf.

2) if you are 8% to hit your set, it doesnt matter what you do pf. that percentage wont change. if you raise them up...keep raising them up...they will pay down here. if you like to limp/call them, then, keep limp/calling them. your percentages wont change.

but, try and "time the market," and you will inevitably "buy high and sell low." you will raise it up, and miss...then, limp and hit with scardy-cats playing crap and folding to a bet.

just stay consistent.

or, raise them up when you OPEN a pot. and call limpers and raisers (following 10X or 15X) the rest of the time.

i love raising them up 3X UTG and getting a couple callers...when i hit my baby set with paint on the board, its the easiest bet flop, bet turn, bet river line you can run.

where did 8% to hit a set come from?

dont make me prove that with math...i cant/wont. maybe someone else will give it a go. ive read it repeatedly, though. thats why you use the 10X rule behind it. or, 15X to be even more conservative.

here are some others to disprove, as i'm sure i'm not entirely correct.

catch a pair on flop...33%
flop a set...8%
flop a flush draw...10%
OE draw with connected cards...
OE draw with 1-gap...

etc, etc.

if i can find the article, i'll give a link. but, i got some news, i'm not going to look that hard.

i figured it was fairly common knowledge (flopping pairs, sets, and flush draws).

[spoonitnow]

Flopping a set with a pocket pair is 7.5:1 against, or about 12%. Not sure where 8% is coming from.

[martindcx1e]

chopper i think you are confusing % with the ratio of roughly 1:8

[Chopper]

Flopping a set with a pocket pair is 7.5:1 against, or about 12%. Not sure where 8% is coming from.

its prolly 8:1 i am remembering.

[spoonitnow]

Flopping a set with a pocket pair is 7.5:1 against, or about 12%. Not sure where 8% is coming from.

its prolly 8:1 i am remembering.

Yep. 7.5:1. Same as flopping a flush draw with suited hole cards.