NL HOLDEM Bluffing, dont be shy...

[SHAKE]

Alot of players ive been talking to really have a problem pulling the trigger in NL holdem. No 50NL players but 400NL and up, where you might have to throw 70 80 bucks out there. To most of us thats a chunk of change, by no way life changing but alot of dough to throw in there with nothing.........wrong..

What about this....

You have AsQh

board is A 9 2 K
its heads up and your first to act theres 120 in the pot....how do you feel about putting in 80 now? howabout with J Td how about raising your oppent with those hands?

its pretty close to the same thing givin fold equity with the draw. Players might feel like puting in money on a bluf raise or bet on the come or with a gutshot or somthing is spewing while with the AQ its more value betting.

Honestly Mathmatical expectation is very close. Bluffing when you think there is a good chance your oppent will fold, has very similar expectaition to just flat out betting a good hand...lets see here


Lets say on the turn

A 9 2 K
POT=100

You have J T

your oppent bets 50...

if you think your oppent might have the drawor a weak ace and they can fold a hand, raise!!!!!

Lets say they will fold if you raise 150 to go (or raise 100 more) 50% of the time.

There other half of the time they call and you fold when you miss your flush. To keep things simple lest say that your oppent only has 100 more behind him (to keep us from debating how much more we could make on the river cause that isnt the point right now) so he has 100 more behind him and you raise 100 to 150.

your about 20% or 4-1 to hit your flush.

lets break it down and run this 10 times

5 times your oppent folds (50%) and you win 150x5 (750) of the other 5 times you win once (20%) for not 150 but 250 because he calls your 100, An you lose your 150 raise the other 4 times

+ 750 (FE) + 250 (hitting the flush) - 600 (getting called and missing)

+400$ or 40 bucks a handm, sweet.


ok same board
A 9 2 K

you have A J

100 in the pot.

Yur oppent could have a flush draw or a weaker ace, you figure theres a 20% chance he has Aces up , (because hes a donk and playse ace trash) , and another 20% chance he has AQ or AK. you bet 100 in to the150 pot to stop the fl draw from calling correctly. becuase here we have no FE.

now 2/10 times the flush hits and you lose 300 2/10 times your oppent had a bigger ace, aces up, or makes aces up and you lose 300, 4/10 times you win 250 (100 + 150pot) +1000 -600 = 400 or 40 a hand!!

Now this example is a little docted yes but its not far off from the average hand. I just wanted to illistrate that semibluffing really has about the same equity as betting a decent hand when there are outs aginst you.

First think about how ofter your oppent will fold for how much/ Normally its corect to bet more to make him fold more often, ive done the math, just trust me. If in this cas a 200 Dollar raise makes him fold 80% and a 150 raise makes him fold 50% raise the 200 theres more equity, do the math youll see.


Any way hopes this helps some of you newbs pull that trigger, dont think your tossing dead money into a pot, its just like betting a hand.

[Chopper]

you must tell me what you are smoking.

half of what you said was textbook stuff.

i bet good money 95%+ of the 400 NL players here smoke you all day long...and that didnt teach them squat anyway.

and teaching the newer guys, that play 10 and 25 NL tables to bluff, is just BAD ADVICE. they are still learning that bluffs dont work down there very often. at least, not often enough to try it on scary boards like those.

as a teacher, i dont see you getting tenure here.

nh, sir.

[Knytestorme]

Alot of players ive been talking to really have a problem pulling the trigger in NL holdem. No 50NL players but 400NL and up, where you might have to throw 70 80 bucks out there. To most of us thats a chunk of change, by no way life changing but alot of dough to throw in there with nothing.........wrong..

.
.
.

Any way hopes this helps some of you newbs pull that trigger, dont think your tossing dead money into a pot, its just like betting a hand.

Man you have totally opened my eyes, and I can see how that isn't at all inconsistent with your previous post here

I look forward to more of your words of wisdom, thank the stars for your presence here.

[SHAKE]

you guys suck. Its for you. I know it diddnt help eaither of you. Its in the Beginers.

Why rip on me for THIS, one.There are better posts to get shitty with me on.

I just showed how bluffing and value betting have similer matmatical expectation. Like thats such a bad thing to do, geeze im such a donk.

And no i wouldnt get ripped apart at 400NL its a bunch of collage kids and 19 y/o who think think they know the math. I see them every day where i play, they suck. The good players onine play 1K NL, ok, i get teared up there.

Anyway fuck this foroum, your all so pompus and full of yourself, none of you have helped me on bit.

97% of you suck and dont try to get better. Bashing N00Bs is more fun. Idiots. FUCK ALL YOU ALL FISH!!!

[SHAKE]

Also there are no inconsitancies, one is a style of play the other is talking about mathmatical expectation in bluffs idiot.

[bigred]

Pokemon convention later at my house.

[pgil]

I'm just a little confused. you already have the flush with the JTdd, but you are talking like you are still drawing in that instance, is this just a typo?

[Chopper]

every post of his is FULL of typos.

thats fine to rip on us for YOU being the 19 yo, immature fool.

you may go back to 2+2 anytime you like.

oh, and you didnt teach me anything, either....na na NA na na. or is it, nanny, nanny boo boo?

[Knytestorme]

You guys suck. It's not for you. I know it didn't help either of you. It's in the Beginners.

Why rip on me for THIS one.There are better posts to get shitty with me about.

I just showed how bluffing and value betting have similar mathamatical expectation. Like that's such a bad thing to do, geeze I'm such a donk.

And no I wouldn't get ripped apart at 400NL it's a bunch of college kids and 19 y/o who think they know the math. I see them every day where I play, they suck. The good players online play 1K NL, ok, I get torn up there.

Anyway fuck this forum, you're all so pompus and full of yourself, none of you have helped me one bit.

97% of you suck and dont try to get better. Bashing N00Bs is more fun. Idiots. FUCK ALL YOU ALL FISH!!!

fyp, thanks for playing along...maybe some of those 19y/o's can take some time out of their schedule of tearing you up and learning the maths to teach you to write and spell?

[bigspenda73]

I didn't read SHAKE's original post just everything after it. I figured the reg's would let me know if it was any good.

The only thing I disagree with is that 400nl players cannot pull the trigger. Are you speaking about a live, more passive game? I would imagine that any solid reg at 400nl certainly knows the value of the semi-bluff and certainly knows that having air/bluff in their range is great for balance.

The bluffing advice IMO is best for players at 100nl and 200nl who had been playing ABC winning poker at lower levels and need to open the game up by widening their ranges.

I was talking with a fellow 50 or 100nl grinder the other day who was just starting to understand the value of just this. Both semi-bluffing and bluffing is great for balance. My suggestion though would be instead of reading someone else's math and taking their word for it to go and do it yourself and truly understand the value of these plays. You'll learn more if you sit down, open up the calculator and pokerstove and start plugging away.

[Knytestorme]

My problem with the post, apart form the typo's as usual, was the blatant "borrowing" of bluff and equity analysis from any 2+2 book that everyone here shoudl have already read and understood and the fact that he switchs between proclaiming players should play small ball poker to keep pot-size controlled with small holdings and tha players should raise liberally and aren't willing to bluff anywhere near enough.

It is an inconsistency there, in the terms he uses...there is no denying that bluffing has a place in everyones arsenal and can fit in with either small-ball or big-pot poker styles but you can't advocate playing one style for everything but one facet of your game.

If he is trying to help players then be consistent and make your words and examples fit that consistency, don't not do it just because it is hard to do.

Pretty much everything I have seen from Shake has seemed to be designed to filter at least a small amount of misinformation into players game and if the credentials he gave in his "hi, new to ftr" post are to believed then it seems hard to believe that this misinformation isn't a litle intentional....or he is just reguritating Sklansky facts in his own words without really understanding them.

Guess it comes do to if you believe the old saying of "Don't prescribe to malice that which can be explained by incompentence"

[bigred]

Trade you a raichu for a Venusaur.

[sarbox68]

With a Grotle, a Piplup and a Bidoof on the flop?!?!?

Are you smoking crack...??


..... or are you bluffing.......?

hold on, let me read the OP again.........

[donkbee]

hey guys ... it's fine to tell someone that his advice sucks and that he's totally wrong, but let's try to lower the sarcasm a bit ...

(from one of the most sarcastic people you'll ever meet in real life, fwiw)

and to the op, no one is forcing you to stay at ftr, and it's really inappropriate to say fuck you to everyone.

[SHAKE]

trust me im not staying this place sucks, i havent gotten any help at all. Worst poker forum EVER

[bigspenda73]

Please just tell us what reg's gimmick acct this is.

[Fnord]

Please just tell us what reg's gimmick acct this is.

This doesn't look like a gimmick, although it has a bit of a Rippy flavor to it. I'm going to guess another random degen.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Please don't give advice you have no idea how to play poker.

[lolzzz_321]

i need to visit beg forum more often

[kettleofish]

97% of you suck and dont try to get better. Bashing N00Bs is more fun. Idiots. FUCK ALL YOU ALL FISH!!!

From what I've just read on the community board, the going rate is about $8k. Although what you'll get for your money varies wildly

[euphoricism]

If this were my site, every one of you snarky fucks would be banned for a week or so.

Fuck you guys, he's trying to help. Instead of being douchebags and just calling him names and criticizing his grammar (grow up) you could provide something useful to the thread or move the hell along.

[bigspenda73]

Hey it's Euph! wuts up bub?

[overflow]

If you narrowed it down to 5-12 people it could conceivably be, statistical variance on linguistic patterns can be used to determine the author. Basically, there are algorithms that, beyond a reasonable margin of error, can determine the source of a piece of writing, given samples of the same authors work that are known to be genuine.

Example:
Jim,Johnny,Joe,Jill,Sally, and Sam all post to the same message board, and are known to be "trouble makers".

Suddenly, a new troublemaker "Biff" shows up. By comparatively analyzing Biff's posts, with the posts of each of the "usual suspects", if we know the suspects' posts to be genuine, we can determine the relative probabilities that each of the suspects is the offender.

Neat stuff.

[Fnord]

If this were my site, every one of you snarky fucks would be banned for a week or so.

I'm inspired!

[Knytestorme]

If this were my site, every one of you snarky fucks would be banned for a week or so.

Fuck you guys, he's trying to help. Instead of being douchebags and just calling him names and criticizing his grammar (grow up) you could provide something useful to the thread or move the hell along.

I did provide something useful.

I provided other beginners here an opportunity to see his post was poorly conceived, poorly written and provided advice of questionable nature so they could look upon it critically and determine for themselves it's worth, exactly the same as I'd expect anyone to do to my posts if they were this bad

[bigred]

Euph, I'll trade you a snorlax for a mewto.

[Unibomber14]

THIS IS A POST OF POOR CONTENT!!!

If you are new to this forum, and have read this thread to here, please DISREGARD it. This forum has genuinely helped many poker players, and will continue to help them in the future. Many posters are well respected, and successful members of the poker community, and are here to give their advice to YOU!!! Please understand that this thread is a poor reflection of the content on these boards. I personally think it should be removed completely, or at least moved from the BEGINNERS CIRCLE.

As for SHAKE. He seems to be an intelligent player, (whether successful or not) and seems to look at the game differently than others. His posts are often controversial, but that's the essence of a public forum, is it not? The only thing SHAKE, is that I don't think you have asked for help yet. Maybe that's why you haven't received any.

These are my thoughts, take them as you will.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Euph, your outrage is understandable, it pisses me off also when posters treat new posters like shit when they could potentially later become solid contributors.

But when a guy is posting ridiculous content and acting like it's the truth, I'm sorry, but im not going to let people get off track from reading this post because the OP sounds like he knows what he's talking about.

[SHAKE]

See whats BS thoug, is that noone says why its wrong, or why they disagree. They just FlAmE!111!!! 3117 !11!!!1

I play poker every day 40 hours+ a week and i make money. I have been for the better part of the year. Ive played over 50K hands in a year or two online and ive never had to redeposit once. Im a winning player, for real. I have no reason to lie, I don't have to fucking impress you....

What i WAS trying to do was point out some textbook stuff and make it easier to understand. Small ball poker works for MTT's. Dont believe it fine, Im wrong, Phill hellmuth is wrong, Phil Ivey is wrong, Mike matasow is wrong, Daniel negraneu is wrong ect...your right.


In this post ALL I AM DOING is ILLUSTRATING how a bluff has similar mathmatical expectation to a a regular bet (if yo had a hand but there where outs aginst you.) People fold enough to make it + ev. Yes its text book, this is a beginers forum. Ive had people express dificulty in bluffing due to fear of getting called. if you think of it as it dosent matter if i get called, the play has + expectation, it makes it easier. Thats the point.


FLAME AWAY ASSHATS!

[donkbee]

I thought you were leaving this forum? If you continue to post, stop being rude and stop saying shit. I am trying to find excuses to not lock this thread, but it is becoming retarded and annoying to visit.

[littleogre]

Can't see how the op is being rude. They are just trying to share something that there expierence says is +ev

[bigred]

[gingerwizard]

If that was your idea SHAKE then fine. You were flamed in my opinion because that point was almost totally inextractible from your original post which was full of sentences making little sense and ill conceived examples.
E.g. the one with the JTdd and a made flush on board and you talking semi bluffs.

If you don't make any sense when you write and come out with rubbish like "400NL players are afraid to pull the trigger," and other things likely to offend the experienced regs then how do you expect people to even want to extract the point you are trying to make.

This is not a flame, it's a bit of sense. Reread your post a few times, look for where the point you try to get accross is stated, and perhaps consider a better way to get that point accross. And stop insulting the posters who have helped hundreds (including me) with their game free of charge.

[donkbee]

Can't see how the op is being rude. They are just trying to share something that there expierence says is +ev

You don't think that "FLAME AWAY ASSHATS!" is rude? oh, lol.

[euphoricism]

See whats BS thoug, is that noone says why its wrong, or why they disagree. They just FlAmE!111!!! 3117 !11!!!1

I agree, and theyre being douchebags. Ignore them.

I play poker every day 40 hours+ a week and i make money. I have been for the better part of the year. Ive played over 50K hands in a year or two online and ive never had to redeposit once.

We do that in a month. If youre playing 40 hours a week, you should be WELL over 50k a month.

FLAME AWAY ASSHATS!

Don't be a douchebag, youre perpetuating the cycle.

[bigspenda73]

Lol at you forming a posse

[euphoricism]

huh?

[bigspenda73]

what?

did I spell posse incorrectly?

[DetroitHusling101]

Yikes. Someone tries to make a informative post and this is what he gets? I think it's bad business for people to flame someone who (from what i've read) has knowledge of the game that he is willing to share. He has helped me in my posts and i appreciate it. Why chase off a contributer to the forums?

[euphoricism]

regulars dont like it when low-stake players try to tell them how to beat higher-staked games. And they have a point.

[bigspenda73]

Poker is fun
For everyone
Except for my opponents
They shouldve practice avoidance

They aint big proponents
In thinking not just in the moment
But the possible future problems
Sometimes comes tough to solve them


:P :P :P :P :P :P :P :P :P :P :P :P :P :P :P :P :P :P

[DetroitHusling101]

who was that rapping again? Wasnt his name friedman or something like that. Young-er player who crushes the internet. I've only watched bits and pieces of 2006 but he caught my eye.
He was beefing about the ante with lisandro and lisandro said he would break his face ... that has to be my favorite wsop moment. Even though i could have it all mixed up lol.

[Chicago_Kid]

THIS IS A POST OF POOR CONTENT!!!

wait...this post has content?

Seems like a lynching.

[littleogre]

Can't see how the op is being rude. They are just trying to share something that there expierence says is +ev

You don't think that "FLAME AWAY ASSHATS!" is rude? oh, lol.

Yes it is rude but by the time he or she made that statement you guys already had the flamethrowers on full force. Look at the first reply by chopper. A rather rude and assinine post if i ever saw one.

[littleogre]

Oh and to the op despite the rude behavior of some in this thread this is a good forum with people that are willing to help.

[SHAKE]

OK so perhaps i antagonized a little but its very frustrating. I stick behind this post. If any of you want to debate why im wrong, please do, but lets do it civily.

My point is bluffing has similar mathmatical expectation to valuebetting when done correctly. I was talking about LIVE 1-2 and 2-5 players, not 400NL online players.

Its a different gam 2-5NL live does not play like 400NL online. I would say 400NL online plays like 5-10 live.