I'm running really bad - Please help!

[HiLo]

The story so far - I started playing FR "seriously" back in November after reading Renton's 169 hand strategy. This seemed to work well, I was winning lots, gaining experience and I kept taking shots whenever my BR allowed, working my way up to 400NL and switching to shorthanded by sometime in Feb. Boosted my BR further with a 2nd place in an MTT and decided (probably foolishly) to take a shot at 600NL. This din't last long because about this time I had no option but to cash out a big chunk of my BR for domestic reasons, leaving about 7k and forcing me back down to 400NL. Then I hit some wicked variance for about 7-10k hands. (Seemingly endless run of villains hitting 2 outers/set over set/ never hitting big draws etc) which forced me down to 200NL again. No problem I thought, I should be back on my feet and moving up in no time! 30k hands later I am down to 100NL and struggling!

I think I have made the mistake of altering (some of it subconsciously)what was a winning game to try and force an end to a period of variance. Most notably I stopped playing draws so aggressively, and have been trying to control the pot size better, particularly playing the river less aggro after losing a lot of big pots here. I think this may have lost me a lot of value with my winning hands.

I am shocked to see how much I have tightened up in late position and how little money I am wining from the button and cutoff. The reasons I can think of for this is that I stopped raising weaker hands like KJo after multiple limpers after running these into limped AK, KQ etc on numerous occasions. I also noticed from PT stats that my lower non-suited connectors and the like were losing me money so I stopped playing these. Is it OK to lose a small amount with these hands because the wider range it gives you increases the chance of my bigger hands getting paid off?

I have decided to post my 100NL stats from when i was winning at the end of last year and then my recent stats in the hope that you guys might be able to have a look and tell me where I have gone so wrong.

I am also seriously considering moving down to 25NL, fixing the leaks cheaply whilst building back my confidence which has taken a hell of a battering. I think the lack of confidence might be showing in my game because I am getting raised a hell of a lot more than I used to....

Any help would be greatly appreciated - Thanks in advance.

(btw before anyone points out that the latter 100NL stats don't match the graph, I was playing a mixture of 100 and 200NL at the start of this period whilst attempting to clear a bonus - Net result was clearing $1000 in bonus whilst losing about $700! )



100NL stats from december:



Recent 100NL stats:


winners:

losers:

[Miffed22001]

just looks like a natural downswing. Play goot and build your confidence back then get stuck back into the games you knwo well.

[Chicago_Kid]

Generally speaking the earlier portion of your earnings graph is plain gaudy...nice work.

Did you start to falter around the time they started blocking US players?

If not, just keep at it. This looks like a normal downswing.

[HiLo]

Started to falter around the beginning of March on Ongame, I think US players had been blocked for quite a while by then. Glad to hear you guys think this is just a natural downswing. As a relatively new player I didn't realise this could last for 40k+ hands, although some of the "leaks" I tried to fix in response to the variance have probably made things worse. I think I may move down for a while, try to put things right and hopefully will be back up and winning soon

Strangely, during this period of running bad, my tournament play has got better. I had another FT last night so my BR just got a much needed boost

[mrhappy333]

Strangely, during this period of running bad, my tournament play has got better. I had another FT last night so my BR just got a much needed boost

I noticed when I switched from tourneys to Ring, I sucked at both. Now that I'm getting better at Ring my SnG game has sucked.
Maybe if you just concentrate on one or the other for a while your game will get better?

[Vi-Zer0Skill]

particularly after reading your post on overbetting, it is clear you are a smart thinking player. Therefore this has to be variance and possibly some adjusting of plays in your game that did not need correction.

As a remedy for this, i suggest taking notes more religiously during sessions, studying videos/articles by professional players, and if you are 6-8tabling that you cut it down to 2-4. I recieved the last tip myself a week ago, and i am already playing much better for even more $$$ in the same amount of time.

[Chicago_Kid]

Strangely, during this period of running bad, my tournament play has got better. I had another FT last night so my BR just got a much needed boost

I noticed when I switched from tourneys to Ring, I sucked at both. Now that I'm getting better at Ring my SnG game has sucked.
Maybe if you just concentrate on one or the other for a while your game will get better?

Like any deep skill, whether mental or physical, some time away or "cross training" can lead to new insights and better results when you return.

[zook]

The only part of your graph that worries me is the last 17k of losing play at 100NL. I think you know the answer already b/c you described it in your post, you're playing a more conservative style of poker and you're missing value as a result. Your LP stats are not nearly as aggro as they were in December and you're not playing as aggressively post-flop. Start utilizing position more, pushing people around, I think your results will probably improve quickly. Post some difficult hands too. GL.