Straight on River (100 NL)...Fold/Call

[TrAdam5]

First off, I think I played this hand poorly. The reraiser had been tight, but I didnt want to let the table think they could take me off hand with miniraises (essentially), so i called 4 more looking to hit trip 10s, a flush, straight, or to fold. When he checks the turn, I am almost positive he's huge here. Then I hit my straight on the turn, and check, and am glad when he checks behind. The bet on the river was really stupid on my part, as for the most part any hand that I am getting a call from and am ahead of will value bet the river anyway when i go check/check/check (pretty much only aa, ak, or aq, and the only one of those that may check behind but call my bet is aq, and I think that is VERY unlikely for him to have here based on prior streets). Anyways, my range for him here is qq, kk, and ak (with a remote chance of jj). I only am ahead of ak, and think that is one of the less likely options. That being said I am getting over 3:1 on the call. Do you fold here or make a crying call?
*********** # 3 **************
PokerStars Game #9463475183: Hold'em Pot Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/04/17 -
01:10:43 (ET)
Table 'Felicia' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: setthem42 ($56.45 in chips)
Seat 2: Mglmstr ($112.60 in chips)
Seat 3: BinaryFinary ($98.65 in chips)
Seat 4: skats-1 ($131.60 in chips)
Seat 5: pacers3107 ($48.35 in chips)
Seat 6: TrAdam5 ($127.15 in chips)
Seat 7: YaYaMe2 ($46.35 in chips)
Seat 8: virulin ($101 in chips)
Seat 9: WNABRNDR ($45.90 in chips)
Mglmstr: posts small blind $0.50
BinaryFinary: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to TrAdam5 [Tc Ac]
skats-1: folds
pacers3107: calls $1
TrAdam5: raises $3 to $4
YaYaMe2: folds
virulin: folds
WNABRNDR: folds
setthem42: raises $4 to $8
Mglmstr: folds
BinaryFinary: folds
pacers3107: folds
TrAdam5: calls $4
*** FLOP *** [Qs Kc Ks]
TrAdam5: checks
setthem42: checks
*** TURN *** [Qs Kc Ks] [Jd]
TrAdam5: checks
setthem42: checks
*** RIVER *** [Qs Kc Ks Jd] [4s]
TrAdam5: bets $10
setthem42: raises $15 to $25
TrAdam5 said, "full house, eh?"
TrAdam5 said, "or is it ak?"
TrAdam5 said, "can beat ak"
TrAdam5: ???

[SteveO]

Smells like QQ that flopped a boat based on the action but I make the crying call based on the pot.

There are still a lot of hands you can beat like AA and Kx that didn't fill up. Kx is unlikely to me because he slowplayed both the flop and the turn with the flush draw working. At the very least a Kx makes a move on the turn.

The only hand that slow plays that bad is someone with a monster or someone scared.

Unless you have a good read on the guy and are almost positive he is incapable of making a bluff there, the crying call will have to do.

[sejje]

I bet the turn.

But I call the river. I think a lot of guys with Kx check the turn, despite what steveo says. But yeah, I say he shows you queens full or four kings.

[TrAdam5]

I folded to his river raise, and feel comfortable with it. The mistake I made is that I should have just checked the river and called any bet he makes (it's pot limit, so he can't bet more than 18 or so, although if he potted it I maybe could still fold). I really feel like this was probably kk or qq, just wanted to see what u would all do.

[Lithium]

I am not sure I would call, since there are many things that beat you. He may not be as strong as a boat or quads, but the reraise preflop may mean he hit Axs (potential AJs) or broadway for the chop.

IMHO, I don't know that you did anything wrong in betting. It is less than a pot size bet, so it shows the strength of your hand, even though the board affects that strength to some extent.

[andmunn]

Personally, i wouldn't make the initial pre-flop raise / call with A/10 out of position - anyone else agree?

[zenbitz]

I put him on AA/KK/QQ.

Last two are actually quite reasonable to s/p since he would have crippled the deck, So you are ahead maybe 40-45% of the time. You are getting more than 3:1 so I think river is a trivial call even if you think he bets AA sometimes and might play JJ like this. That's assuming he NEVER has AK, which I think he does some small % of the time (5%?). I think we can assume he's never bluffing unless his pfrr range is wide (doubt it)

Pre-flop I don't hate EXCEPT villian is 1/2 stack so your implied odds are shot, despite decent pot odds. I have a general policy of not folding anything playable to min/raises pre-flop, but I would like ca. 20x implied odds.

[TrAdam5]

I know andmunn that raising a-10 suited from 3rd position at a full table is slight loose, but this table had been playing very tight and I had been able to steal lots of small pots for the most part both preflop and postflop to chip up to 127. Also, pacers had been limping weak alot of times, sometimes limp-calling, sometimes limp-folding. However, when he was limp-calling, he was real easy to play against postflop, so I was really looking to isolate initally against pacer, and win the pot on the flop (or preflop if everyone folds is fine too).
In regards to calling the reraise, I hate calling reraises with a hand like a-10 suited, but I did it for two main reasons in this spot:
1.) It was only 4 more, so if I play it only to flop a monster (I felt like a big pair was very likely here for him), I have decent implied odds. Is it a +EV call? Its probably really close, but that leads to me my other reason for calling.
2.) I had great success at the table stealing lots of small pots, and I didn't want people to start thinking that I would fold to any sort of reraise preflop and look weak. I had been playing pretty LAG with success, and didn't want my opponents think they could start to play back at me without a hand. If it was a clearly -EV spot (say he had raised to 12 rather than 8) I fold. But since I thought EV wise it was pretty close, table image was probably the main factor in my call.

I really don't see AA here. Somebody who is playing AA scared enough to check the flop and turn is not raising a bet here on the river. He reraised with ak later in the session the same amount, so I still feel like ak is more likely than aa. When he checked the flop though, my first instinct was he had a monster, so I still feel like this is kk or qq the majority of the time.

[zenbitz]

1.) It was only 4 more, so if I play it only to flop a monster (I felt like a big pair was very likely here for him), I have decent implied odds. Is it a +EV call? Its probably really close, but that leads to me my other reason for calling.

You are getting 12:1. If you think you can play really well in this situation post flop, then these are OK odds. But you really need to flop well here - trip 10s, two pair, combo draw. I don't think you flop this even 8% of the time.

[TrAdam5]

1.) It was only 4 more, so if I play it only to flop a monster (I felt like a big pair was very likely here for him), I have decent implied odds. Is it a +EV call? Its probably really close, but that leads to me my other reason for calling.

You are getting 12:1. If you think you can play really well in this situation post flop, then these are OK odds. But you really need to flop well here - trip 10s, two pair, combo draw. I don't think you flop this even 8% of the time.

I am actually getting 15:1 with the 14.50 already in the pot and after accounting for rake. Like I said, if I am getting a very slightly -EV chip situation here I think it is worth it just for the sake of table image so that people don't think they can get me to fold even with a minireraise preflop.