Starfleet Selections: NFL Week 15

[ensign_lee]

Going off zook's data (since he lives there and all)

Seattle/San Francisco UNDER 38.5
3 units at Pinnacle

Rain affects somewhat, but wind is the often overlooked factor that PWNS overs. Big wind (like 30+mph gusts) = no passing. No passing = stacking the box vs. the run. Stacking the box vs. the run = FGs in the red zone instead of TDs. FGs in the red zone instead of TDs = Under.

That makes sense, right?

[zook]

If you're hitting it for 3 units, I'm tailing. Go San Fran and the under!

[bigspenda73]

Looks like we're all on the same page boys. GL tonight

And damn wouldn't it had been nice to get it at 44 inteast of where I caught it at 39 today.

[ensign_lee]

Yeah; but I'm not sure I would have bet the under without knowing that it was going to be windy as hell tonight, so...make your bets with the info ya got.

[ensign_lee]

Also, one unit on:

2-team same game teaser (+100)
San Francisco +16 / Under 44.5
1 unit at Pinnacle

Figured these two things are kind of correlated, and getting +100 is +EV here.

[zook]

Really like that bet, I'm on it too. Good find lee.

[elipsesjeff]

Also, one unit on:

2-team same game teaser (+100)
San Francisco +16 / Under 44.5
1 unit at Pinnacle

Figured these two things are kind of correlated, and getting +100 is +EV here.

I'll hit that!

[elipsesjeff]

Also guys, I found something you all might be interested in. In the prop betting section I put 1 unit on over 3.5 field goals for the nights game. I was getting +185 so I gave it 1 unit to see how that goes.

[zook]

Also guys, I found something you all might be interested in. In the prop betting section I put 1 unit on over 3.5 field goals for the nights game. I was getting +185 so I gave it 1 unit to see how that goes.

Interesting. Sounds good to me, but I don't have much experience with prop bets. The teams are averaging ~1.6 FGs per game and you'd think it would be a little higher tonight. But long field goals will be TOUGH. Hmm...

[ensign_lee]

careful on that with 30+mph winds.

It's hard to make even 35 yarders in that wind.

[ensign_lee]

Two plays for Saturday Night Football (wow that sounds wierd).

ATL -3.5 (+290)
1 unit at Pinnacle

ATL +4.5 (-110)
1 unit at Skybook

I have seen NOBODY, NOBODY pick Dallas. The public is on Dallas at somewhere between 65 to 75% tonight, causing the line to move from DAL -3 to DAL -4. huh... Atlanta is STILL a 7-4 team. They don't deserve THAT many points.

And why the -3.5 (+290)? Because Atlanta is sporadic enough to the point that when they win, they win big, and when they lose, they lose big. So, the points that I've sold have value here, especially when I'm selling what amounts to 7.5 points for like +200 in value.

[ensign_lee]

So Atlanta bombed last night. Couldn't watch the game though; wtf NFL network and Time Warner? Quit bitching at each other and work something the hell out... Looked like a hell of a good game from the little lines moving on my gamecenter.

Allright. For today, I have

New England -12 (+100)
5 units at Bodog

Texans are in a terrible position going into Foxborough in December. We (the texans) just lost in the worst way possible to a Titans squad in what was basically the last 'big game' left on our schedule. Meanwhile, it is doubtful that the Patriots will overlook our poor souls after getting shut out in Miami last week.

The Texans defense can generate no pass rush; has a porous secondary that you can throw on basically everywhere (except maybe Dunta); is starting two DTs who were street free agents/on practice squads at the beginning of the year (yay injuries); Mario Williams is still running with one tire broke, since his toe is giving him huge troubles with walking around, much less rushing the passer; David Carr's confidence must be at an all time low; and the WR core is starting to show frustration with their QB (Eric Moulds and Andre Johnson).

This is my make or break game of this week. It could definitely lose, so feel free to fade. In fact, it may make you lots of money. .

TEN/JAC OVER 40.5 (-108)
1 unit at Pinnacle
This comes from another handicapper whose specialty is totals. I'll run with it.

MIA +1.5 (-110)
1 unit at Skybook
This play is fading two horrendous touts, one of whom is chasing his losses. And when they're chasing their losses, you know it's time to fade (you could also apply this to fading me). Normally, I don't play on Florida teams going up north in the winter, but the temperature on the field is like 50 degrees, well within acceptable parameters.

3 team 10 point Teaser (-130) - Ties Push
NE -2 , BAL -2.5, NE OVER 28
2 units at Skybook

NE should rock the face of my poor Texans. Ditto with Bal and Cleveland. And New England is probably going to score 28 BY THEMSELVES.


You know, if Houston wins today, I think I'd be so happy, I wouldn't care that I lost a squillion units.

[bigspenda73]

Looks like only 1 of us will be winning money today.....

[ensign_lee]

Also adding:

NE -13 (+109)
2 units at Pinnacle

This could surely bite me in the ass, but uh...here we go...

and bigspenda: if the Texans win, I will be so happy, it'll be ok.

Worst thing would be if we lost by like or something, so that the Texans lose AND I lose my bet.

[ensign_lee]

For second half bets I have:

NE -2.5 (-115)
5 units at Skybook

Houston is playing horribly, if you've been following along. It is VERY possible that the backup Bradlee Van Pelt will be coming in during the second half, so that should negate garbage TDs by Carr (who is famous for them). How Van Pelt will fare? I dunno; he's only been on this team for like 2 weeks...

Also, it would make more sense for the Patriots to be getting points in the second half sinec their up by 27, so I'm going against what would make sense by having the Patriots lay MORE points in the second half of this game.

So in essence, I'm taking Patriots -29.5. Wow . hhaahaha.

[zook]

I see what you like about this bet, but FIVE units?! You made awesome bets before this game, and now you're risking most of your profit on garbage time. I'm rooting for you, but I think this is poor $ management...

[zook]

I stand by what I wrote above, but would like to add this:

NICE HITS LEE!

[ensign_lee]

Yeah; you're probably right. It wouldn't have been so big except that I got what I thought was an advantageous line.

Everywhere, EVERYWHERE had NE -3 (-105) or so. I saw some (-110)'s, and I saw two places with (+100). So for me to be able to get -2.5 (-115) I thought was worth the extra units.

I can't believe wtf my QB just did. How do you do that, Carr?!?!?!?!

Go Patriots?

Thanks for the congrats, zook.

[ensign_lee]

One bet for SNF. Probably shouldn't bet it just because it's on TV, but oh well...

Following Zook:

KC +3.5 (+198)
1 unit at Pinnacle

I was tempted to take KC -3.5 (+550) or something ridiculous like that, but I figured that htis game probably does figure to go down towards the wire and could definitely be won by a FG, by either team, so I figured I'd take the +3.5 instead.

SD just clinched their division, and if you analyze their psyche, they probably are more apt to 'relax' the week after and thus be less prepared for their next game. Plus, KC's not exactly mincemeat here; I think they have around a 40% chance to win this game. SD's a little better, but not by much.

KC +6.5 (1st Half) (-105)
1 unit at BetTrojan
Halftime's can end in ties, which helps me make this bet. KC I think has the mettle to stand up to SD. 6.5 points is a LOTTA points...

[ensign_lee]

The last game took a little bit of the wind out of my sails, but thanks to the Patriots (or should I say thanks to the incompetence of David Carr), I'm up around +10 units on the day. WOohoo!

One of these days I'll do a true record update; mark my words. Just finals are getting in the way; sorry guys.