ensign_lee's December NBA Thread

[ensign_lee]

That other thread was getting a little long, so I think I'm going to make one for the month of December now.

For tonight, I have

Sacramento +7.5 @ Dallas (-108)
This is from a fellow handicapper that I respect. I got it last night while the lines were still coming out at Pinnacle. However, if you still want the +7.5, you can get it with the free half point on Fridays that Skybook gives you. 7's supposed to be a fairly key number, so I'd definitely recommend that.

[ensign_lee]

Looking at skybook now, you can actually get to +8 now on that Sacramento bet with the free half point. I'd definitely recommend doing that. I'm locked into to my +7.5 for now, but that doesn't mean you have to be!

[zook]

Really like this lee. Sac's hitting their stride, winning 3 in a row, and Dallas has won 10 in a row, which is probably why the line's so high. Dirk's probable with a bruised retina, but even if he plays he might not be 100%. Sac's had an extra day off compared to Dallas too.

I might put 2 units on the spread and 1 on the M/L. Waiting for Pinny to catch up with the other books though... it's still +7 there but the juice is going down.

[ensign_lee]

Back to +7 across the board for the Sacramento game now. If you want the +7.5, BetJamaica has it up at -110, or you can use the free half point to get it there at -115.

Public's on Dallas, though, so this line could conceivably go back up.

[ensign_lee]

Also shooting for a middle for today:

I currently hold Toronto -2 (-112) - Skybook for 5 units and Boston +3 (-105) - Bodog for 5 units.

Any other result other than Toronto winning by 2 or 3 means I lose about .4 units. If Toronto wins by 2 or 3, I win 5 units.

I was actually trying to scalp this when it happened, but Pinnacle changed the line on me at like the last possible second. Whoops.

So this was the best I could get out of having Toronto have 5 units on it at -2.

I also think this is a +EV middle...barely, so that's good. If anyone wants to follow, Skybook is now hanging a -2 (-110) with the free half point.

[ensign_lee]

Atlanta Moneyline vs. Cleveland (+145) - Skybook
70% of the public the other way. All I need to know

Milwaukee Moneyline @ Phoenix (+450.8) - Matchbook
All Milwaukee has to do is win this one in 5 times to make this +EV. I think they're up to that task.

Portland Moneyline vs. Orlando (+167 - Pinnacle
70% of the money is on Orlando and the line has barely budged. I'll take that.

[bigspenda73]

Im piggybacking all your picks except for the ATL M/L. Good luck to us.

[ensign_lee]

Ouch; Have I ever been cold lately. Missed my middle by 1 point. Portland covers, but loses the game straight up, so nothing there for me. Ditto for Milwaukee.

If I didn't already know the math that the point sread only matters in 12% of NBA games, I'd seriously be doubting taking underdog moneylines right now. Still, owie.

0-4 on the night, leaving us with -4.48 units of loss with the middle attempt factored in.

YTD: 42-49
Units won: 7.7
Spread Difference Factor: 6 games

Hey: that's why we have a bankroll, right? To sustain us through losses and streaks like this.

[ensign_lee]

Onward we go.

One bet so far for tonight:

Seattle Moneyline @ Utah (+435) - Pinnacle
This is based on the work of another handicapper, who liked Seattle +9.5. I'm going to stick with 'line doesn't matter' and hope that everything evens out over the course of the season.

But damn; last night dogs took it on the chin. Only 1 won outright (who I didn't pick) and like4 (FOUR?!?!) dogs covered, but didn't win. Owchies.

Miami/Memphis OVER 183.5 (-105) - BetTrojan
This play comes from another fellow handicapper.

[ensign_lee]

Two more plays for late night action:

Milwaukee Moneyline (+322) @ Golden State - Pinnacle
Milwaukee needs to win this game, what...once in every 4 times in order to make this +EV (1/4.22 = 23.7% of the time to break even). I think they can do that.

LA Clippers -2.5 (-107) vs. LA Lakers - Pinnacle
A handicapper that I respect is on this; that's pretty much my reasoning.

[ensign_lee]

Oh so close on the Seattle Moneyline. It took a three pointer by Utah with 1.6 seconds left to win the game for Utah...aww, damn. Oh well: keep the faith.

Went 2-2 on the night, but with the dog moneylines, we turn a profit instead of simply losing the juice.

Saturday: 2-2
Units won: 2.15


YTD: 44-51
Units won: 9.85
Spread Difference Factor: 7 games

[zook]

Man, the Sea loss was a heartbreaker. I'm glad you made up for it with the Mil upset and ended up for the night!

[ensign_lee]

Thanks, zook.

I've got two bets on deck for today so far:

Charlotte Moneyline (+169.7) - Matchbook
Looks like for every bet on Charlotte, there are 3 on Detroit. The line's been out awhile and has yet to budge.

Minnesota Moneyline (125.44) - Matchbook
I think Minnesota and Philadelphia are evenly matched up enough to the point that each wins this game half the time. I'll take teh + money here.

[zook]

Nice hits lee!

[ensign_lee]

Thanks zook! It's nice not to be in danger of going 0-for again.

One last bet on the night that qualifies:

Orlando Moneyline (+124) - Pinnacle
Public seems to be on the Clippers, and yet the line moved from the initial -3 to -1, and has now bounced back to -2.

They're not heavy on the Clippers (around 60 to 65%, depending on where you get your data), but it's enough for me with the reverse line move.

[ensign_lee]

It wasn't almost 3 units, but almost 2 units, after you subtract out the loss, but you're right: it was a good night.

I'll have to update my record later. My internet connection is testy at best.

Washington Moneyline (+157.4) - Matchbook
Around 70% of the public is on Dallas, but the line has moved from the opener of 4 to 3.5 now. Also, Pinnacle is hanging a -3.5, apparently trying to trap in Dallas action, which makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside.

[ensign_lee]

For the other games tonight, I have the following in action:

Memphis Moneyline (+123.48) - Matchbook
I think Memphis wins this at least half the time; Therefore, taking the +money moneyline is +EV here, I believe.

Orlando Moneyline (+209.72) - Matchbook
Honestly, I think Orlando wins this half the time here also. I really don't think this moneyline should be anywhere near where it's at. The Magic, despite getting schooled yesterday, aren't that bad.

Indiana Moneyline (+270.48) - Matchbook
Indiana pretty much has to win this game barely more than 1 in 4 times to make this +EV. I think they're up to the task.

[bigspenda73]

Thanks for the Magic pick, I owe ya .01 of a unit. Looks like you went 2-2 with the M/L dogs. Good work

[ensign_lee]

You're welcome, bispenda. .01 units? Wah?

For tonight, I have:

Golden State +7.5 (-110) - Skybook
This comes from another handicapper that I respect. Also, it falls into the 'fade houston at home' angle.

[ensign_lee]

Also adding for Tuesday:

LA Clippers -6.5 (-104) - Pinnacle
This is from another handicapper.

The only system play for tonight that would fall into what I would normally bet is going against Dallas. But I'm hesitant to go against them here, especially with a solid capper on teh other side. I dunno. Guess we'll see.

[ensign_lee]

Bah, screw it. Gotta follow the system. Last time I didn't, it bit me in the ass.

New Jersey Moneyline (+126) - Pinnacle

[ensign_lee]

Went 0-3 yesterday. Yucky.

Well, there's a fairly big card for today, and here we go:

Memphis Moneyline (+139.16) - Matchbook
For every bet there is on Memphis, there seems to be 3 on Boston, yet the line hasn't budged. Plus, as a bonus, I like fading Boston.

New York -1 (+104) - Pinnacle
This and the Memphis play are the only true fading the public plays that I had initially set out only to bet. Lots of bets on Washington and yet the line goes from WAS -1 to NY -1. Strange...

San Antonio/Charlotte UNDER 188 (-113) - Pinnacle
This comes from another handicapper; I respect his judgement. Thanks procapper.

The following plays are just based on the fact that I think the team will win enough times to make the bet +EV. Think of it like trying to hit a set; usually, you won't, but when you do, the payoff from doing so more than offsets the losses from the times you didn't hit.

Portland (+303.6) - Matchbook
Orlando (+117.6) - Matchbook
Atlanta (+560) - Pinnacle
New Orleans (+358) - Pinnacle

I think that'll do it for the night. Let's hit it.

[ensign_lee]

Ok. It's high time I did a record update. Sorry for the tardiness y'all.

Not counting any of tonight (Wednesday)'s plays, my YTD is:

YTD: 48-52
Units won: 11.01

Sunday: 2-1
Units won: 1.94

Monday: 2-2
Units won: 1.67

Tuesday: 0-3
Units Won: -3.14

[ensign_lee]

Woohoo! Too bad Portland couldn't pull through for us, even though they did bring the Bucks to overtime. Atlanta hit big for us tonight with a huge comback to wipe out their horrible 3rd quarter (too bad I only got the +560 and not the +720 Pinnacle was hanging later right before tipoff. My bad, oh well), and New Orleans dominated the second, third, and fourth quarter to come back from a 4 point 1st quarter deficit to win the game. They pretty much never gave the lead back once they got it.

4-3 on the night, with +8.57 units on the night. Woohoo!!!!

So that brings our
YTD to: 52-55
Units won to: 19.58
Spread Difference Factor: 7 games

Woohoo!!!! Good night for the dogs to win STRAIGHT UP!!! Feels nice. After all, it's seemed like I've been picking dogs that lost, but covered, or been picking dogs on nights were only 1 or even none of them won straight up.

Yay!!! It's like I hit two sets tonight!

{edited because I typed in my YTD wrong. It has been corrected}

[zook]

Nice night lee! I was thinking about you when the Mil/Por game went to OT. So close! Still, a great night for FTR's sportsbetting addicts, er, regulars

[ensign_lee]

Only one bet so far for tonight:

Dallas -7 (-101) - Pinnacle
This comes from another handicapper.

Tonight, I will probably have a play on the nets vs. Phoenix, since 70+% of the public is on Phoenix.

[ensign_lee]

New Jersey Moneyline (+134.26) - Matchbook

Public s on Phoenix at right around 70%. Line moved up...kinda, but not enough for that kind of money, especially with it being the most bet game of the night on a sparse night.

Also thinking about hitting:
Miami Moneyline, but still working on it.

[ensign_lee]

Ok. Looks like I WILL be betting all three games tonight.


Miami Moneyline (+188.16) - Matchbook
This is another one of those 'set-like' bets.

[ensign_lee]

Went 1-2 on the night, with two games going to overtime.

Phoenix pulled it out in a game that had more than 300 points scored . Damn. The Nets were up by 3 with 4 seconds left. How does that happen? Oh well; shit happens.

Dallas just got owned, plain and simple. Whoops

and Miami hit for us, thought they did scare the shit out of us. I stopped paying attention when they were up by 11 in the 4th. I look back later to see that they won by a point in overtime; my goodness.

Thursday Night: 1-2
Units Won: -0.13

YTD : 53-57
Units Won: 19.45

[ensign_lee]

A bit slate of games up for tonight.

So far, I only have the follow, but this will probably grow:

Orlando -4 (-115)
This comes from another handicapper.

I will definitely be on Minnesota tonight vs. Utah; just way too many people on the other side, and the fact that the favorite turned into a dog. Still waiting on the best line.

[ensign_lee]

Looks like that Orlando line moved on me for the worse. You can get -3 (-110) on Orlando now. D'oh.

Oh well. Here's my card for the night, sorted by reasons for bet:

Fade the Public Plays:
Minnesota -1 (+whatever)
I will be selling points to Minnesota -1, but am STILL waiting on the best line. Just tons of bets on Utah, and this forces the line from Minnesota -1 to Utah -1 (and -1.5 at 'square' books). Big red flag for me when public money makes a favorite into an underdog.

I will make an add on post to let you know what odds I get this at later.

Charlotte +6 (-108) - Skybook

Follow other handicapper plays:
Orlando -4 (-115) - Skybook
Milwaukee -4.5 (-110) - Skybook

'set-like' plays:
Portland Moneyline (+275) - Pinnacle
LA Clippers Moneyline (+334) - Pinnacle
Atlanta Moneyline (+350) - Pinnacle
Miami Moneyline (+372.4) - Matchbook

'My' Plays:
Chicago -8 (-110) - Skybook
Seattle -3 (-110)

Also, if you notice a half point discrepancy between my line and the skybook posted line, it's because on Fridays, you get to use your free half point on basketball!!!

[ensign_lee]

I ended up taking Minnesota +1 (-102). Wasn't just that much value to go from +1 (-102) to -1 (+105). I want more than 7 cents for that.

Go Minnesota!

[ensign_lee]

Rough night last night, going 3-7. Ouch. I'll have a record update later, but here's the plays for tonight:

All I have tonight are plays that are like me trying to hit a set: usually they'll lose, but the wins should make up for the losses and then some.

Indiana Moneyline (+339) - Pinnacle
Milwaukee Moneyline (+127.4) - Matchbook
Boston Moneyline (+303.Cool - Matchbook
Minnesota Moneyline (+328.3) - Matchbook

One play I'm thinking about, but haven't yet pulled the trigger on is Memphis Moneyline as far as fading the public. We'll see.

[ensign_lee]

Actually, looks like I will have more plays on deck tonight:

Washington Moneyline (+100.9) - Matchbook
This comes from a handicapper that I respect immensely.

Memphis Moneyline (+126.42) - Matchbook
The public is heavy on the LA Clippers, with every bet on Memphis being countered by about 3 bets on LA. The line did at first start to move like it should, but now has started to come back where it started. I'll take the home underdog with everyone on the other side.

Dallas -8.5 (-110) - Skybook
Pinnacle has been trying to keep mone away from Dallas all day, never once giving the best price on it. I guess that's my cue to take Dallas.

[ensign_lee]

Also, to update my record from last night (Friday), here we are:

Friday's Results: 3-7
Units won: -4.33

YTD : 56-64
Units Won: 15.12


Allrighty; I'm heading out in a little while, so that'll probably do it for me tonight.

*Engage.

[ensign_lee]

Sorry; I lied. One last bet:

Memphis/LA Clippers UNDER 185.5 (-110) - Skybook
This comes from another handicapper whom I respect. Straight up; no analysis. Very Happy

[ensign_lee]

Went 4-4 on the night. BUT...I hit to of my +300 moneyline dogs, with Boston hitting a last second shot to win the game, and Minnesota dominating Chicago the entire night.

Heartbreaking loss by Washington at the last second, but oh well; it happens.

So, record update:

Saturday Night: 4-4
Units Won: 4.32

YTD : 60-68
Units Won: 19.44

[zook]

Still, nice night lee!

[ensign_lee]

Thanks zook!

3 plays for this Sunday.

Seattle -3.5 (-105.1) - Matchbook
I think Seattle can get the job done here, at home against Golden State

Atlanta (+295) - Pinnacle
Atlanta only has to win this game one in 4 times or so to break even. I think they win more often than that (let's hope so).

San Antonio/LA Lakers UNDER 189 (-106)
This comes from another handicapper who I respect.

[ensign_lee]

Went 0-3 last night. Damn.

And top it off, my Texans lost...to Vince Young's 39 YD TD run...in OT...damn that sucked.

For today, I will be on:

Orlando Moneyline (+whatever it is)
Public bets have forced the line from Orlando -1.5 to now Orlando +1. Wow. For every bet on Orlando there are at least 2 on Phoenix. Plus, Phoenix is finishing up a huge road streak, so they may finally be road weary now. Then again; they're Phoenix and never seem to get tired.

[ensign_lee]

So here's my card so far. Instead of taking the Orlando Moneyline at (+107), I decided to take Orlando -1 at (+111).

Orlando -1 (+111) - Pinnacle
Boston Moneyline (+127.4) - Matchbook
Memphis Moneyline (+313.6)

The second two are bets where I think the team will win often enough to offset the times that it loses.

I am looking at LA Clippers moneyline later, as there are a whole bunch of people on the Spurs and yet the line moved from SA -3 to SA -2.5.

[ensign_lee]

For later tonight, I have:

Dallas Moneyline (+108.78) - Matchbook

The line has gone from Dallas -1 to Utah -1/-1.5 . WTF? No injuries or anything like that. Action is about 60/40, in favor of Dallas, but nothing to constitute a true reverse line move. It's times like these I think the books give a big FU to the bettors who think they are smarter than the books and put down enough to change a team that the books deemed a favorite and turn them into an underdog.

LA Clippers Moneyline (+125)
Public is on San Antonio at around 65 to 75% or so, depending on your source. I'll average the two and say that it's on at around 70%. Yet the line has moved from -3 to -2.5.

Truthfully, I could probably get a better price by waiting until gametime, but I'm going out to dinner soon, so I can't really do that. Food for thought for the rest of y'all though.

[ensign_lee]

Been a rough few days. I think I've gone something like 1-7 for the past two days, but well...with the types of bets I'm making, volatility was going to be a concern.

Still sucks though, and in the middle of finals too. yay.

Onwards and upwards though; there's a reason we have a bankroll.

For tonight, 3 bets:

1 play of mine:
Houston -2.5 (+108) - Matchbook

and two +EV plays
Sacramento Moneyline (+132.3) - Matchbook
Seattle Moneyline (+182) - Pinnacle

Ok. That'll do it.

And...Engage.

[ensign_lee]

Woot 0-3 last night. I think I'm 1-10 over my last 11 plays. Go me...

Record Update:

Sunday Night: 0-3
Units Won: -3.11

Monday Night: 1-4
Units Won: -2.73

Tuesday Night: 0-3
Units Won: -3.00

YTD : 61-78
Units Won: 10.603

[ensign_lee]

Allrighty: on to Wednesday. Big card tonight.

As for types of bets, I have the following:

Faded Public Bets:
Philadelphia Moneyline (+155) - Nine
Indiana Moneyline (+125) - Nine

Other Handicappers Bets that I'm following:
San Antonio / Minnesota OVER 182 (-108) - Pinnacle

+EV Bets:
Atlanta Moneyline (+270) - Pinnacle
Seattle Moneyline (+410)- Pinnacle
Milwaukee Moneyline (+284.20) - Matchbook
Minnesota Moneyline (+410) - Pinnacle
Miami Moneyline (+597.8)

Other Bets:
Cleveland -11 (-100.02) - Matchbook
Orlando -9.5 (-108.16) - Matchbook
Minnesota +9 (-107.14) - Matchbook
Dallas -8.5 (-105) - Nine
LA Clippers +3.5 (-105) - Nine
Washington -2.5 (-103) - Nine
Portland +5.5 (-105) - Pinnacle

These are just the bets that I've placed. I will be updating this by editing this post, so try to check back before the games start. I'm keeping it all in one post so that it looks tidier.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Cleveland -11 (-100.02) - Matchbook
Miami -9.5 (-108.16) - Matchbook

Other Handicappers Bets that I'm following:
San Antonio / Minnesota OVER 182 (-108) - Pinnacle

+EV Bets:

I like taking Miami. But the Cleveland and SA/MIN lines I dont. SA and MIN are both slow teams and I wouldn't be suprised to see something like 90-80.

Cleveland I think lays an egg too much.

[ensign_lee]

I think I'm done with the card now. Little edges here and there on most of the games (at least in my eyes). Let's see how we do.

Make it so.

[zook]

Hey lee. Sucks about your cold streak. When I got back into town tonight and saw this:

Woot 0-3 last night. I think I'm 1-10 over my last 11 plays.

Followed by:

Allrighty: on to Wednesday. Big card tonight.

It was hard not to wonder if you're chasing. I know you know better, just something to think about.

Also, I'm curious about all your M/L dog plays... are you capping these games somehow? I know it's -EV to bet them indiscriminately so I'm wondering how you're discriminating.

BOL to you in the late games tonight, I hope you make a big comeback!

[ensign_lee]

4-9 on the night, so far, with two games left. Best I can do now is 6-9, losing only 3 units...or I could up and lose 7.

And yes: I am taking into consideration things on my underdog M/L bets; just shit keeps hitting the fan with them.

And way to go Minnesota: you're up by like a trillion points, and have the over coming in, and then you decide...to not score anymore? Way to go; fuck me for my over and for my M/L bet.

But point taken, zook. After I put all those bets in, I realized just how much action I put in tonight. I chased smaller edges than I normally would have (and they cut me hah; how's that for poetic justice?).

I'll try to limit the plays later.

[ensign_lee]

Scratch that. 3-10 on the night so far, because I can't add and counted my Minnesota +9 bet as a winner. whoops...



I might have to take a step back, seeing as tonight, I lost most of hte profits i've made so far.

Maybe even stop with the 'set-like' +EV bets alltogether. It's atrocious how those have been doing lately.

Assuming I lose my last two (and it's very possible that that could happen), I think I will be 4-22 for my last 26 bets. Hah...wow; that's laughable.

At any rate, I'm stepping out for the night. Need to study and well...damn.

[zook]

The NBA is a REALLY tough sport to cap. We're both learning and I doubt it will come quickly. It's a looong season and as you would say, chin up!

[ensign_lee]

http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=435888

I kinda feel like this guy right now.

Really need to take a step back for now.

[chris1195]

Hey lee tough luck man. I feel your pain. I followed 4 of your bets last night and yep went 0-4.
Its cool though ,I gotta learn .

I am learning that NBA hell of lot harder to bet on than nfl.

[ensign_lee]

Only one bet after last night's debacle :

Charlotte Moneyline (+115) - BetTrojan
Orlando is the public's darling tonight, wiht 70+% of the bets coming in on them. And yet the line has moved from SAN -3 to SA -2 or even SA -1.5. That's a 1.5 point line move!!! IN THE WRONG DIRECTION!

I'd planned on taking the night off to regroup (and you, know study for my exams), but uh...yeah.

So...one unit on the Charlotte moneyline as one of my "WTF Fade the public plays".

[zook]

Two cappers like this play too, I'm on it. Orlando is beat up right now with Grant Hill and Turkoglu out and Bogans and Jameer Nelson questionable.

[ensign_lee]

I'm just following other handicappers tonight. Nothing stuck out to me in particular (now that I'm ignoring my old 'set-like' bets).

Chicago -7 (-110) - Skybook
Utah -7 (-110) - Skybook
Toronto/New Jersey OVER 193 (-105) - BetTrojan
Washington/Miami UNDER 199.5 (-115.3) - Matchbook


Yay free half point fridays at Skybook!

[ensign_lee]

Last bet to close out ensign_lee vs. the NBA, rd. 1

Dallas/Philadelphia OVER 186.5 (-105) - BetTrojan

[zook]

We're on 4 plays together tonight. GL to us!

[ensign_lee]

Woot go us. 0-5 last night. And I talked myself out of my one semi 'fade teh public' bet.

And just to kick me in the ass, two of the bigger payoff 'set-like' bets kicked in last night that I didn't bet. Awesome.

Oh well. Looks like the NBA got in the last few punches in the first round.