math during a hand

[Sheetah]

Or odds taking FE (folding equity) into consideration:
Say you called PFR with 78s and flopped nut straight draw.
Pot:9BB
Villain cbets 9BB ...
pot:18BB, you have, say 80BB behind, VILLAIN covers

What will happen if you shove (All in) right here on flop? You already know that for two more cards to come you'll make your str8 about 32% of the time (4 x 8 outs) or your odds are roughly about 1-to-2. If VILLAIN calls that'll be taking shot at 98BB pot with 80BB bet or about 1-to-1.2 , obviously not good. But what if VILLAIN will call 70% of the time and fold 30% (after all, hardly you will ever see situation that's 100% certain). Now there's some math to do:

1) 30%: you shove, he folds, you win = 18BB

2)70%: you shove, he calls:
- 32%(of 70%) you make str8 = 178BB
- 68%(of 70%) you lose = -80BB

Summary:
0.3*18BB + 0.7*0.32*178BB - 0.7*0.68*80BB = 7.19BB

So with 30% FE you are actually making EV+ play gaining on average 7BB+. The more likely he is to fold, the more you gain.

Just wondering. Are people able to calculate this whilst playing? Im sh*t at maths and have never been able to get my head around equations like this!!

Are these sums really that relevant whilst playing?

If so is there a way to learn these easily (for the mathematically challenegd) or does it just come from experience, as big spenda states?

cheers.

what you'd try to do is work out your expectation if you're called. If it's "close" to what you'd get by folding (which is zero) and there's a chance they'll fold then stick it all in.

In any case, the example is flawed. You need heaps more fold equity with such a weak draw and a small pot. The mistake made is that winning does not win you 178BBs, it wins you 169BBs less what you put into the pot to win it. In other words, you get +89BBs.

So assuming 30% folds, your equity is still -12 BBs or so

Sorry. My bad.
salsa is right.
Actually there are two ways to do the math on this and I accidentally implemented way #2 logic into way #1 math. UGH!
Anyway, I just wanted to illustrate that there are many ways of thinking and many sorts of odds.

@ Random_Hero:
- Are people able to calculate this whilst playing?
No way. Not online in less than a minute. It's more like a homework: you do the math for some common scenarios, remember some referent values and when the hand comes - you already know solution so use this knowledge to get a little extra value.

-Are these sums really that relevant whilst playing?
Not really. It's exploiting thin edges. In the long run this is profitable but moves like this are heavy variance. It's more relevant in High stakes where good players might use this to get an edge on other good players.