Pelion's 3 hand strategy

[Pelion]

Last night I went to the pub with one of my mates. A few hours into the night we bump into some guy from the year below us doing the same course. After a few beers and a few more Alex (my mate) mentions poker to this guy. He says he used to play quite lot but he never got passed very small stakes because everyone plays so badly they are impossible to put on hands etc. etc. etc.
I didnt bother to correct him but it seems like this is a fairly commonly held belief amoung poor poker players.

It got me thinking though and I have decided I want to try an experiment. The rules are as follows.

The Strategy

1) The experiment will be conducted at pokerstars 0.01/0.02 blind tables with an initial buyin of $2 (max buyin is $5)
2) This is Full Ring
3) No matter what the action before me I am going to fold everything but AA,KK, AK and I am going to push AA, KK, AK.


I want a reasonable sample of hands on this (50k+ hands or hopefully more like 100k ) after which I will see if the "strategy" is profitable.

If anyone wants to join me in my quest please 12 table or how ever many you want whilst following the rules above. Then you can email me your stats afterwards.
Even with 50k hands it will be a fairly small sample size so the more the merrier. At the end I will be able to do some math based on standard deviation and winrate and ill be able to work out how likely it is that this system is profitable.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Even if it is profitable I am in no way suggesting people play like this outside of this experiment. It is clearly FAR from optimal and you will make no progress as a poker player.
This is just for my own interest.

[AHiltz]

Sorry, but seems like a waste of time since it's not optimal and you're going to lose a lot of EV.

If each table plays 65 hands an hour and you're 12 tabling, you're going to have to play for 65 hours to do 50k hands.

[biondino]

You need to create a bot to do this for you dude, seriously.

[Halv]

I'd rather dump AK and play all pairs with a full stack instead. Push JJ+ or TT+ preflop and push sets on the flop. At least add QQ to your range. But then it wouldn't be 3 hands :P.

And you've got way too much hate for yourself if you try something like this..

[jyms]

Sounds like fun. Keep us up to speed. I'm sure your not doing this for +EV but to see how close to break even even this super nit strategy would run. Then any thinking man could add a few hands and watch the board. Or is there more to this than first thought.

[kingnat]

I think this is an interesting idea... because it's an actual experiment. NLHE is far to complex to write out a formula for this type of thing. This is a well controlled, and designed experiment. I will do this for at least an hour or two... just because I appreciate simple experimental design.

So to clarify:

You want to look at only playing AA, KK, and AK only (I really wish we could add QQ to this, and possibly JJ) - is it both AKs and AKo?

What about hands in the BB that are checked to us? How do we play post flop? If we're playing extra nitty.. I would think we'd need to pair both our hole cards or hit trips or better on the flop to push. Otherwise check/fold.

Turn rules? Same as flop or more stringent?

River rules? Same as flop or more stringent?

K. Tks.

[kingnat]

Also... when do you rebuy?

How about anything below $1.80. Thoughts?

Note: I'm currently 12-tabling $.01/$.02.... and I just raked my first pot!!!

[Pelion]

Nope QQ isnt allowed. Maybe it should be.... but it isnt.

I havnt really thought about what to do when we find a big blind special. I dont think it will affect the results much either way because of how often it happens. Push 2 pair+ seems like a good plan (using both hole cards).

Not sure what to do with trips since you can have a pretty shitty kicker. Probably just fold trips.

[Pelion]

by the way to anyone wanting to take part its probably an idea to start a new PT database just for this experiment just so you dont get anything confused with your normal play.

Rebuying at $1.80 sounds fair enough.

Do you think its ok to sit at the same tables? 2 people on a FR table playing like this shouldnt make too much difference right?

[kingnat]

As I was reading your reply.. i folded QQ on the button after 4 limpers... *sigh*....

Yikes.. folding trips... , but that means folding all trips... even those w/ an A kicker.... I think this is a bit tight. But it's your experiment...

Push every flopped set, str8, flush, etc...

A couple of hints for those interested.. use the "Sit Here option to put yourself at every seat on the bottom of the table.

$2 buyin might be a touch high... I haven't been called down yet.

OH JUST GOT A CALL!!! He had AK. and river'd a broadway!! Woo-hoo!!!!

[Pelion]

i folded QQ in a multiway pot in the small blind . oh well.

What do you think about pushing trips then? Push with a broadway kicker? Push all trips?

[kingnat]

FINALLY... got paid off... AK v TT!!

This may be the worst experince eva....

So much for the BB special...

PokerStars Game #7034433981: Hold'em No Limit ($0.01/$0.02) - 2006/11/15 - 11:53:52 (ET)
Table 'Thiele' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: kingnat ($1.90 in chips)
Seat 2: CCody ($4.96 in chips)
Seat 3: Pelion ($1.97 in chips)
Seat 4: Phillux352 ($3.27 in chips)
Seat 5: freeka ($4.06 in chips)
Seat 6: FbCznv ($2.82 in chips)
Seat 7: varmitt ($5.10 in chips)
Seat 8: PokerVen0m ($0.83 in chips)
Seat 9: steph3573 ($3.01 in chips)
steph3573: posts small blind $0.01
kingnat: posts big blind $0.02
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to kingnat [6h 9h]
CCody: folds
Pelion: folds
Phillux352 said, "la c'est moi qui a mal joue"
Phillux352: calls $0.02
freeka: folds
freeka leaves the table
FbCznv: folds
varmitt: calls $0.02
PokerVen0m: folds
VinylRecords joins the table at seat #5
steph3573: calls $0.01
kingnat: checks
*** FLOP *** [2s 6s 9c]
FbCznv said, "lol"
steph3573: checks
kingnat: bets $1.88 and is all-in
Phillux352: calls $1.88
varmitt: raises $3.20 to $5.08 and is all-in
steph3573: folds
Phillux352: calls $1.37 and is all-in
*** TURN *** [2s 6s 9c] [Kc]
*** RIVER *** [2s 6s 9c Kc] [Td]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Phillux352: shows [Ts 5s] (a pair of Tens)
varmitt: shows [9s 9d] (three of a kind, Nines)
varmitt collected $2.59 from side pot
kingnat: mucks hand
varmitt collected $5.47 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $8.46 Main pot $5.47. Side pot $2.59. | Rake $0.40
Board [2s 6s 9c Kc Td]
Seat 1: kingnat (big blind) mucked [6h 9h]
Seat 2: CCody folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Pelion folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Phillux352 showed [Ts 5s] and lost with a pair of Tens
Seat 5: freeka folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: FbCznv folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: varmitt showed [9s 9d] and won ($8.06) with three of a kind, Nines
Seat 8: PokerVen0m (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: steph3573 (small blind) folded on the Flop

[Pelion]

PokerStars Game #7034546248: Hold'em No Limit ($0.01/$0.02) - 2006/11/15 - 12:08:47 (ET)
Table 'Juhani' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: angela432 ($2.98 in chips)
Seat 2: Hert48 ($7.02 in chips)
Seat 3: ISO_$$$$ ($1.54 in chips)
Seat 4: kingnat ($1.89 in chips)
Seat 5: Pelion ($2.01 in chips)
Seat 6: Halloran2005 ($2.07 in chips)
Seat 7: racoon2 ($2.86 in chips)
Seat 8: flp126 ($0.66 in chips)
Seat 9: CCody ($7.85 in chips)
Halloran2005: posts small blind $0.01
racoon2: posts big blind $0.02
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Pelion [Ks Kc]
flp126: calls $0.02
CCody: folds
angela432: folds
Hert48: folds
ISO_$$$$: calls $0.02
kingnat: folds
Pelion: raises $1.99 to $2.01 and is all-in
Halloran2005: folds
racoon2: calls $1.99
flp126: folds
ISO_$$$$: folds
*** FLOP *** [8d Qd 8c]
*** TURN *** [8d Qd 8c] [3d]
*** RIVER *** [8d Qd 8c 3d] [7s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
racoon2: shows [Jh Kd] (a pair of Eights)
Pelion: shows [Ks Kc] (two pair, Kings and Eights)
Pelion collected $3.87 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $4.07 | Rake $0.20
Board [8d Qd 8c 3d 7s]
Seat 1: angela432 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Hert48 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: ISO_$$$$ folded before Flop
Seat 4: kingnat folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Pelion (button) showed [Ks Kc] and won ($3.87) with two pair, Kings and Eights
Seat 6: Halloran2005 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: racoon2 (big blind) showed [Jh Kd] and lost with a pair of Eights
Seat 8: flp126 folded before Flop
Seat 9: CCody folded before Flop (didn't bet)

[kingnat]

While doing this.. I can actually feel my balls getting smaller....
PokerStars Game #7034543725: Hold'em No Limit ($0.01/$0.02) - 2006/11/15 - 12:08:27 (ET)
Table 'Valda III' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: Malibou ($0.95 in chips)
Seat 2: kingsize1972 ($0.27 in chips)
Seat 4: Wendat1973 ($1.71 in chips)
Seat 5: Gorrak ($4.37 in chips)
Seat 6: BOFAdeezAA ($3 in chips)
Seat 7: Zakx ($0.84 in chips)
Seat 8: kingnat ($1.99 in chips)
Seat 9: racoon2 ($2.08 in chips)
racoon2 said, "nbs moron"
racoon2: posts small blind $0.01
Malibou: posts big blind $0.02
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to kingnat [Kc Ks]
kingsize1972: calls $0.02
Wendat1973: calls $0.02
Gorrak: folds
BOFAdeezAA: calls $0.02
Zakx: folds
kingnat: raises $1.97 to $1.99 and is all-in
racoon2: folds
Malibou: folds
kingsize1972: calls $0.25 and is all-in
Wendat1973: calls $1.69 and is all-in
BOFAdeezAA: folds
*** FLOP *** [5c 3d Js]
*** TURN *** [5c 3d Js] [2h]
*** RIVER *** [5c 3d Js 2h] [4s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Wendat1973: shows [Ah 8h] (a straight, Ace to Five)
kingnat: mucks hand
Wendat1973 collected $2.73 from side pot
kingsize1972: mucks hand
Wendat1973 collected $0.86 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $3.74 Main pot $0.86. Side pot $2.73. | Rake $0.15
Board [5c 3d Js 2h 4s]
Seat 1: Malibou (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: kingsize1972 mucked [9h 8d]
Seat 4: Wendat1973 showed [Ah 8h] and won ($3.59) with a straight, Ace to Five
Seat 5: Gorrak folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: BOFAdeezAA folded before Flop
Seat 7: Zakx folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: kingnat (button) mucked [Kc Ks]
Seat 9: racoon2 (small blind) folded before Flop

[Pelion]

lolzor.

well we definatly dont seem to be building an image.

[jonyboy]

The probability of beign dealt AA or KK is 0.90%
The probability of beign dealt AKs is 0.30%
Therefore you will play 1.20% of hands (1 in 100)

So you will be down 30 cents in blinds by the time you play a hand.

Lets say you win 70% of hands you do play (people will most likely go all in with at least something.

So you lose $60 in hand you lost and win $140 in hands you win.

So that's a profit of $80 (less blinds) makes it a $30 loss (over 10000 hands.

So you don't want to ante yourself to death.

---------
and i don't mean to be negative or anything.
The stats where from SS1

[Miffed22001]

do it at 5/10nl and see what happens

[Pelion]

do it at 5/10nl and see what happens

stake me?

[kingnat]

Wow.. i really hate my life right now after doing that for an hour. To make it at all bareable I would need to be excessively high, or by playing like 30 tables.. 12 is FAR too slow.

[Pelion]

yea agreed. ill probably do it when i come back drunk and i cant play for real. How many hands did you get through?

[biondino]

Why are you doing this?

[Pelion]

because I want to see how close to winning I come with it.

[donkbee]

omg this is hilarious

just push all trips if you flop a bb special, lol

[donkbee]

i'll add to the sample size after i play for real today and run bad as usual and hate poker.

although from the sounds of it, it'll make me hate poker more, lol

[bigslikk]

Heh- some guy already tried your strategy:

http://www.pokermagazine.com/cgi-bin...ump.cgi?ID=606

He folded everything, but pp, which he pushed. Result: Absolutely no action. Try the 72o bit tho.

[kingnat]

Ok.. check.. pushing all trips....

GL court.. i suggest watching TV while doing this.. it just takes too damn long to wait to play... it actually takes some serious discipline to voluntarily throw away QQ on the button when it's folded to you. But maybe it builds character (?)

[Irisheyes]

lol I'd love to help you with this, I really would. It'd cost me too much money though in terms of hourly rate.

I belive this style of playing would be +EV

[Pelion]

lol I'd love to help you with this, I really would. It'd cost me too much money though in terms of hourly rate.

I belive this style of playing would be +EV

You 6 table right?
Have 4 2NL tables open in the background. You dont exactly have to think about it.

[Seasider]

PokerStars Game #7034546248: Hold'em No Limit ($0.01/$0.02) - 2006/11/15 - 12:08:47 (ET)
Table 'Juhani' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: angela432 ($2.98 in chips)
Seat 2: Hert48 ($7.02 in chips)
Seat 3: ISO_$$$$ ($1.54 in chips)
Seat 4: kingnat ($1.89 in chips)
Seat 5: Pelion ($2.01 in chips)
Seat 6: Halloran2005 ($2.07 in chips)
Seat 7: racoon2 ($2.86 in chips)
Seat 8: flp126 ($0.66 in chips)
Seat 9: CCody ($7.85 in chips)
Halloran2005: posts small blind $0.01
racoon2: posts big blind $0.02
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Pelion [Ks Kc]
flp126: calls $0.02
CCody: folds
angela432: folds
Hert48: folds
ISO_$$$$: calls $0.02
kingnat: folds
Pelion: raises $1.99 to $2.01 and is all-in
Halloran2005: folds
racoon2: calls $1.99
flp126: folds
ISO_$$$$: folds
*** FLOP *** [8d Qd 8c]
*** TURN *** [8d Qd 8c] [3d]
*** RIVER *** [8d Qd 8c 3d] [7s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
racoon2: shows [Jh Kd] (a pair of Eights)
Pelion: shows [Ks Kc] (two pair, Kings and Eights)
Pelion collected $3.87 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $4.07 | Rake $0.20
Board [8d Qd 8c 3d 7s]
Seat 1: angela432 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Hert48 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: ISO_$$$$ folded before Flop
Seat 4: kingnat folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Pelion (button) showed [Ks Kc] and won ($3.87) with two pair, Kings and Eights
Seat 6: Halloran2005 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: racoon2 (big blind) showed [Jh Kd] and lost with a pair of Eights
Seat 8: flp126 folded before Flop
Seat 9: CCody folded before Flop (didn't bet)

If this is meant to be a proper experiment will it not be thrown off by sitting at the same table with someone you know is doing exactly the same thing? What were you doing if one of you pushed infront of another who looked down at AK?

[kingnat]

If this is meant to be a proper experiment will it not be thrown off by sitting at the same table with someone you know is doing exactly the same thing? What were you doing if one of you pushed infront of another who looked down at AK?

I realized this as well, and as far as I was concerned I wasn't going to play any differently. The setup doesn't allow for any reads whatsoever. It pontentially is a drawback, but there could very be players playing extremely small ranges, so I don't think it completely destroys our results.

[Pelion]

Obviously we would like to avoid this as much as possible but there arent enough tables for that to be possible all the time. provided most of there are only 2 of us it shouldnt make much of a difference. Since noone is going to be folding KK, and most people arent folding AK here it doesnt make much difference.

Also if you think about the number of times AA runs into KK at a full table you can see that it isnt going to happen nearly as often HU. This experiment is just going to get a feel for how easy it is for essentially a bot to break even/beat ultra-low stakes. I have no idea if we will make money but so far I dont think we'll be far off.

[jyms]

Update???

[Fnord]

QQ > AK
That's not even close either.

[Pelion]

QQ > AK
That's not even close either.

yea I thought long and hard for at least 10 seconds before discarding QQ. It will definatly take away from profitablility but meh. We can still see how close we come. maybe after 50k hands someone can do some more with QQ

[Jimmy Mac]

A blast from the past here - some fun posts on a similar, but probably more profitable strategy:

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...poker-1406.htm

[bigspenda73]

PT stats yet? Id like to know what your VPIP is.

[spoonitnow]

lol pelion ur gay

[Pelion]

lol pelion ur gay

join in. you know you wanna

[swiggidy]

PT stats yet? Id like to know what your VPIP is.

Probably 1.2/1.2 but what do I know.

{EDIT: durp, it's 2.1/2.1, I didn't count AKo}

[JB25163]

Let's see if I can add some math to this (hopefully I won't fuck it up):

The probability of getting dealt AA, KK or AK is 2.1%

Therefore in a sample size of 100,000 hands you will be going all-in on about 2,100 hands. Let us assume there are always 9 players at the table. This means there will be roughly 11,111 orbits over the course of the 100,000 hands. Thus if you were to never play a hand you stand to lose 16,666 in Big Blinds.

So in order to break even you would need to win approximately x=7.9BB on average each time you go all-in: (2,100 hands) * (x) = (16,666BB)

In order to achieve a win rate of 5BB/100 hands you will need to win approximately y=10.3BB on average each time you go all-in: (2,100 hands) * (y) = (16,666BB + 5,000BB)

In order to achieve a win rate of 10BB/100 hands you will need to win approximately z=12.7BB on average each time you go all-in: (2,100 hands) * (z) = (16,666BB + 10,000BB)

So the question then becomes how feasible is it to achieve these win rates. Discuss.

[spoonitnow]

lol pelion ur gay

join in. you know you wanna

I proved I'm gay with the thong pic, what have YOU done?

[spoonitnow]

nm forgot about this thread

[swiggidy]

So the question then becomes how feasible is it to achieve these win rates. Discuss.

I think you're BB (big bets) are actually bb (big blind). You also ignored the blinds won without being called, definitely not negligible.

Let's assume

        	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	63.2273 %  	58.95% 	04.28%      { KK+, AKs, AKo }
Hand  2:	36.7727 %  	32.50% 	04.28%      { 88+, A8s+, KQs, AQo+ }

He's buying in for 100bb, so +63bb everytime he's called, +2bb everytime it's folded (assume there is a limper enough that he picks up more than the blinds, this should probably be higher).

p := probablility he's called = 7.1%
0.929 * 2 + 0.071 * 63 = 6bb/100 or 3BB/100

Others:
JJ+,AQs+,AKo:
0.967 * 2 + 0.033 * 56 = 3.8bb/100 or 1.9BB/100

Any pp, sc, broadway:
22+,A8s+,KJs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,AJo +,KJo+,QJo
0.836 * 2 + 0.164 * 67 = 12.7bb/100 or 6.4BB/100

[JB25163]

So the question then becomes how feasible is it to achieve these win rates. Discuss.

I think you're BB (big bets) are actually bb (big blind). You also ignored the blinds won without being called, definitely not negligible.

Yes, my BB=big blind. Blinds won without being called are figured in beacuse I said "on average" you need to win x amount when you go all-in. So whether you double up, win blinds, or bust, on average you need to get at least xbb.

[swiggidy]

Thing thing I forgot to throw in, would buying in for 50BB make this more profitable? Getting called by a bigger range is huge, but it may not make up for it:

4bb or 2BB
2.8bb or 1.4BB
7bb or 3.5BB

[JB25163]

I'm not so sure buying in for 50BB at this level would make a huge difference. You would be more apt to get callers, but like you said, it may not make up for it.

[spoonitnow]

I can't believe this thread is still going.

[Vrax]

Add up 67s and show down everytime you get folds. Only 67s, not other SC's, just Six-Seven s00ted. it's less frequent than Aces and you'll get shitload of action on big pairs.

[Pelion]

I'm not so sure buying in for 50BB at this level would make a huge difference. You would be more apt to get callers, but like you said, it may not make up for it.

50BB would make it worse.


u get called whether your hand suxors or not.. as such you get alot of vaule from AA/KK being called by worse. 50BB would reduce thise.

[spoonitnow]

For fuck's sake tell me you're not seriously wasting your time with this?