Bad fold?

[vegaas2]

Hey all,

I have been playing steadily for the past year and a half. I have slowly been making my way up limits. This hand came up last night. It was a 3/5 NL cash game at the local casino. Now here is the problem with my casino, the highest limit hold 'em used to be 20/40, then it was cut to 10/20 and now that game is rarely going, so the highest is 5/10. The reason I bring this up is that I am mainly a limit player, but 5/10 just doesnt do it for me, so I just switched last night to NL game.

Here is the scenario, I am in middle position and get dealt A/K offsuit. I pop it the normal raise at the table to $25. It folds around to the button who is a bit LAG. He reraises to $110. It folds to me, I think about it and then repop it to $150 more, back to him, he asks how much i have left, which was a little over $300, and then he puts me all in. He has me well covered.

As I am thinking about what to do, he tells me he knows what I have, I ask him, ok what do I have? He says queens. He said that obviously I do not have aces or I would have insta called, and he has kings, so it is highly unlikely that I do. As I am thinking about this, I start to wonder aloud that if he has kings, why didnt he try and suck me in more if it was heads up instead of pushing. The player to my left then blurts out "Because he has Kings". Well, I thought about it a bit more then I mucked and I have been kicking myself for it ever since.

Here are the reasons I folded,

1) Isnt the saying that the fourth raise is Aces?
2) Dont most players over play Big Slick?
3) The guy to left that blurted out "Because he has Kings" influenced my decision, he seemed to be a solid player
4) It was my first time playing a live NL cash game and I didnt want to look like a rookie over playing a hand


All that being said, I think I made the wrong decision. Can you give me any insight?

P.S. Of course that hand shook my confidence and I way over played Big Slick about 20 minutes later to lose the rest of my stack.

[vegaas2]

Ok, maybe I shouldnt have put in the vote button. I am getting votes, but no discussion on the hand. I really want to hear opinions on this. I should also add, that guy that said "Because he has Kings" really through me off. I was in the middle of working through it in my mind. I had not yet gotten to odds or the fact that you want to see all five cards with A/K and was in the process of putting him on a range of hands. I really wish that guy wouldnt have said anything, its almost like he put me back to step one in my thought process, and I was feeling the pressure to make a decision.

[Ragnar4]

I think here you have to call.

Here's why.

1 I think you overplayed this hand right out of the gate. The raise was a bit high, IMO. Typically a raising hand deserves 3x the BB + (1BB for each limper up to you.) So 15 bucks if you're the first to enter with a raising hand, and 25 if there are 2 limpers in front of you. By raising $25 bucks, AK loses value, and AA, KK, QQ gain value. You're over commiting to a drawing hand.

2 Your re-raise. Solid players know there are VERY few hands that should re-raise a raiser in this game. the top pocket pairs, and if he's a little laggy, AKs.

3 After he pops you back, now you've got to call 300 to win 900. you're gettin' 3-1 on your money. Against AA, you aren't getting equity to call. Against KK, you are. Ace anything against KK has equity to call here because you'll hit your ace 24% of the time. QQ to 22 is a coinflip. So you're gettin better than even money odds to call. and you're dominant against ace poop, and 2-1 against any other combo of cards.

4 OF a possible 169 hands, only two (AA) (kk and KK is close) do not give you odds to call. All the rest, do.

[The Izebox]

yep. You should call with pot so big. You shouldnt have three bet it if youre not ready to go to put the remaining 300 in tho imo. But the way you played it you have to call.

[bigslikk]

Why in the hell would he broadcast that he has kings if he'd prefer a call? AA is insta-call he said, but basically so is KK. He prob. put u on AK or QQ and wanted you fold. Seems like villain likely has AK seeing as he reraised, but wanted a fold.

O yeah, and the pot odds make it favorable- as others mentioned.

[vegaas2]

Ok, I am not disagreeing here, just playing devils advocate.

Doesnt the 4th raise mean Aces come into play? Now I am not saying he has aces, but with a 4th raise he has something and I am an underdog to even pocket dueces.

As I said, I was interrutped during my thinking process of putting him on hands. Here were the hands I was thinking about. JJ through AA, AK and maybe, just maybe AQs but that seemed a bit far fetched. Thats it, I really didnt put him on anything else. So I am in dominate shape agaisnt AQ, and underdog against JJ and QQ, in really bad shape against KK or AA and obviously we split the pot AK but if his is suited he is a very slight favorite. So looking at that, thats 1 hand I dominate, 2 hands I am a dog, 2 hands I am dominated and 1 hand we split. Those just dont seem like good odds to me even though the pot was roughly 2.5 to 1.

[Ragnar4]

you're a 4% underdog to JJ and QQ. You're making 300% on your money. IF the amount of money you are an underdog is less than the amount of money you stand to make, you should call.

it's a coin flip. 50/50.

Here's an excercise. put 100 chips in 2 piles. Ante, 1 chip from your pile, and 3 chips from your opponents. Then draw a card, Red, youget the money, black your oppoent gets the money. Repeat until one guy has all the money.

This is the situation you've put yourself in. You're the guy ante-ing one.

[Ragnar4]

you're a 4% underdog to JJ and QQ. You're making 300% on your money. IF the amount of money you are an underdog is less than the amount of money you stand to make, you should call.

it's a coin flip. 50/50.

Here's an excercise. put 100 chips in 2 piles. Ante, 1 chip from your pile, and 3 chips from your opponents. Then draw a card, Red, youget the money, black your oppoent gets the money. Repeat until one guy has all the money.

This is the situation you've put yourself in. You're the guy ante-ing one.

[vegaas2]

you're a 4% underdog to JJ and QQ.

A ha! Here is the crux of the problem. I understand odds after the flop, no problems with pot odds, implied odds vs outs. But, I do not understand preflop odds. How do you figure out that AK is 4% underdog to JJ and QQ? As I mentioned I have been a limit player, so this is where my inexperience in no limit shines through.

[Ragnar4]

AK versus QQ is 48%/52% same with JJ. 4% dawg.
The only reason I know? Watching Poker on TV. Those percentages on the side of the screen is about the only thing helpful about TV poker.

[vegaas2]

Damn, I thought I was about to learn something important.

[bigslikk]

PP v. overcards is common racing scenario.

88 v. KT, 66 v 8Q, QQ v AK are roughly 50/50 with slight advantage to the pocket pair.

Note of exception, JTs has edge v. lower pp. (like 44) b/c of overs, straight / flush possiblities. I'm sure other matchups are similar

[Ragnar4]

it's a HUGE advantage too. Suited Connectors as overs versus pocket pairs that can't share in the one card straight are almost as dominated as AA versus KK

[handsomestan]

This is only my second post on this forum, but I'm an experienced B&M NL player.

The lesson you've learned here is one that took me a while to learn.

Given that you're more a limit player, its easy to see why it happened.

Basically, when he reraised you, you had to make a decision. He has acknowledged your show of strength and believes himself to have a stronger hand. It matters little what bet you make after his reraise, he has already decided he has the stronger hand and is going to act accordingly.

After his reraise, you have to realise that to continue from here means all your chips are going in the middle. Whether you flat call pre-flop or reraise him, all your chips are going to end up in the pot eventually. From the moment he re-pops you, you have two options available - fold, or continue knowing that all your chips are going to be up for grabs.

This was a lesson I had to learn the hard way - for a long time I would call a reraise, and then either bet or check the flop and instantly be put AI by my opponent. I would make the decision to fold after having lost a lot more chips than I should have. If I'm probably going to fold to his AI on the flop, why bother calling his reraise pre-flop?

Lets look at a hypothetical. You call his initial reraise. The flop comes 9-7-3. You can make a continuation bet here, or more likely check to the aggressor. Either way, 9 times out of ten your opponent is going to bet hard or even push AI. What are you going to do then?

Without going into percentages and numbers, when he made his reraise was the time to make your decision - are you prepared to go AI with Big Slick? If not, the time to fold was after his reraise when it became apparent your whole stack was on the line.

Personally, my decision would be not to commit all chips in this situation. However, I know many players who would. My train of thought is why put your stack up for grabs on a coinflip? Why not wait until you're the favourite before putting your stack on the line?

Recognising when to get away from a hand is key in NL and a skill I'm sure you'll develop quickly - especially after a costly fold like this.

Hope this helps.

[vegaas2]

This is only my second post on this forum, but I'm an experienced B&M NL player.

The lesson you've learned here is one that took me a while to learn.

Given that you're more a limit player, its easy to see why it happened.

Basically, when he reraised you, you had to make a decision. He has acknowledged your show of strength and believes himself to have a stronger hand. It matters little what bet you make after his reraise, he has already decided he has the stronger hand and is going to act accordingly.

After his reraise, you have to realise that to continue from here means all your chips are going in the middle. Whether you flat call pre-flop or reraise him, all your chips are going to end up in the pot eventually. From the moment he re-pops you, you have two options available - fold, or continue knowing that all your chips are going to be up for grabs.

This was a lesson I had to learn the hard way - for a long time I would call a reraise, and then either bet or check the flop and instantly be put AI by my opponent. I would make the decision to fold after having lost a lot more chips than I should have. If I'm probably going to fold to his AI on the flop, why bother calling his reraise pre-flop?

Lets look at a hypothetical. You call his initial reraise. The flop comes 9-7-3. You can make a continuation bet here, or more likely check to the aggressor. Either way, 9 times out of ten your opponent is going to bet hard or even push AI. What are you going to do then?

Without going into percentages and numbers, when he made his reraise was the time to make your decision - are you prepared to go AI with Big Slick? If not, the time to fold was after his reraise when it became apparent your whole stack was on the line.

Personally, my decision would be not to commit all chips in this situation. However, I know many players who would. My train of thought is why put your stack up for grabs on a coinflip? Why not wait until you're the favourite before putting your stack on the line?

Recognising when to get away from a hand is key in NL and a skill I'm sure you'll develop quickly - especially after a costly fold like this.

Hope this helps.

Wow, excellent reply! I see exactly what you are talking about. This is great analysis and is exaclty why I posted here. Now I am starting to wonder what I may be getting myself into with NL. Anything else that you guys can warn me about? I know that maybe impossible to answer, but I never considered what handsomestan just posted, a real eye opener.

[LimpinAintEZ]

tourney - call - cash game, I fold - Then again I just don't like having AK against most hands that would re-pop me here - Against a solid player like your describing - against a guy who does that all the time im pushing it in with him....

as for your opening raise, if that is the standard table raise then by all means raise that amount - Forget that 3x stuff - if everyone is making it $25 to go, that is the 'standard' raise...

[vegaas2]

Ok, this belongs in the bad beat section, but since this was my thread I thought I would add it here.

I think I am done with NL for a while. I am sick about this. I went back to the casino for my second night of live NL. I was in for $900 and had a stack of a little over $1200. I am dealt pocket aces on the button, middle postion raises to $30, I reraise to $130, he pushes, and has me covered, I couldnt believe it! I insta call. He has kings. The flop comes with two clubs, he has one, I dont. You can see where this is going, runner, runner club and I am sick and my stack is gone, I am stuck for $900 and I feel sick to my stomach.

I guess its back to stinking 5/10 limit, at least for a while, being stuck for a total of $1200 over two days is something I wouldnt have encountered in limit. I know that that is part of the game in NL, but man, I am having a hard time with it.

[Ragnar4]

Dude. I'm sorry to hear it. But look at it this way. 1 out of 5 times, you lose this hand. 4 times out of 5, you win. Whcih means, you win (4x1800) and lose (1x1800) for a grand total of +$5400. I take that every damn time.

IF losing 1200 bucks in 2 nights has you this distraught, I'm guessing that you don't have the proper bankroll to be playing the NL game.

[vegaas2]

Dude. I'm sorry to hear it. But look at it this way. 1 out of 5 times, you lose this hand. 4 times out of 5, you win. Whcih means, you win (4x1800) and lose (1x1800) for a grand total of +$5400. I take that every damn time.

IF losing 1200 bucks in 2 nights has you this distraught, I'm guessing that you don't have the proper bankroll to be playing the NL game.

Yeah, its the dreaded playing about your bankroll. Like I said, 5/10 is the highest limit, I been wanting 10/20 but they dont offer that anymore, so I want to no limit. The only no limit is 3/5. I wish there was also a 1/2 NL that would be much better for my bankroll right now.