Comments: How to spot a set (and save your stack)

[Miffed22001]

{Comments on http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...oker-29053.htm }


exellent post
The points about having top pair are well made.
Being raised holding top pair, if you are a taggy player is often the sign you are beat. It sucks.
so the discipline to lay down is tough.

but
on the subject of limping. At lower than 100NL it is still possible to limp with pps and get sets paid. their will always be someone who likes their hand too much.
But how do we combat the problem of limping and then raising say the turn in a standard 'i have a set' fashion?
this leads onto posts like twosevoffs (right poster/spelt right?) in the strategy forum about creating an image where you can get paid with good hands. So while at 25nl raising 22 utg in 6max is NOT +ev in 200NL 6max it occasionaly is for when you manage to snag that 2 outer when your hand is disguised. Therefore, while preflop play can be almost automatic at 100NL and below (ive heard it argued for 200NL too) to really get paid mixing up preflop play will eventauly cause extra payment on big hands. But of course, thats for another time and some one elses post on setting traps...
but as said, stick to the basics. You get raised with to pair or an over pair, its probably no good!

[azureXsmurF]

Awesome post ^^ Never really knew to look for signs like this for if you're up against a set like in the 2nd example.

[r8ed]

Also emphasizes not to slowplay your hand like the guy with a set of 9s did. He should reraise the flop or bet the turn, especially with two suited on the flop. He let midas catch up and paid dearly. Nice post.

[Dunk]

Good post!

I think example #2 from the villains point of view is interesting. He's thrilled with his set of 9s and cruises, and then every card he sees from there out becomes more and more dangerous.

If if we were Villain#2, should we have C/R'd the flop? Or is just one of those hands that you're destined to lose a lot of money in?

[Fnord]

*makes note to show you the same line with air*

[Blinky]

This is an excellent post and these are some good examples Midas. I think it's worth noting though that this is rarer in microstakes and ... as Fnord points out... means that you can also be played off your hand in some situations.

Then again, when you're a Fnord's level you'll probably know it

[Dunk]

Heh. I have no illusions about being Fnord's level.
I'm sure he'd beat me all over the table with air.

Seriously, on the flop theres a guy who has reraised me heavy PF who will bet after me. Frankly calling his reraise probably wasn't a great idea, but maybe I've seen him pressure people a lot and now I'm wondering if I was reacting emotionally. I see a flush threat and an overcard, so right now I'm only beat by KK, but AcXc is possible at this stake level and would suck. So there are 11 cards out there that will make me want to lay down my hand if they come on the turn.

So doesn't villain have two lines:
* Bet the flop
* Check/Raise the flop

It seems that check-call with a set of nines is a bad move here.

[spoonitnow]

Man, you're like the next aok.

[Death_Kube_K]

all ive got to say is BRILLIANT!

*makes note to show you the same line with air*

:P

Great post, midas.

[Lukie]

I'm sure he'd beat me all over the table with air.

I've played with him more than once, and while he likes to work up a bad image, I can assure you Fnord is no maniac...

[Chicago_Kid]

*makes note to show you the same line with air*

I'll try this if I sense fear, the stacks are pretty deep, and if I've seen the guy laydown before. Finally, I don't really do this unless I have outs (double gut, OESD or flush), in case he comes along to the river...gotta make your luck sometimes.

[Chicago_Kid]

Sometimes you just know their full of it...

Game #1474596764: Hold'em NL ($0.50/$1) - 2006/01/21 - 14:05:48 (ET)
Table "Pink" Seat 2 is the button.
Seat 1: BMoreE ($79 in chips)
Seat 2: samjanus ($39.13 in chips)
Seat 3: leviathan ($162.25 in chips)
Seat 4: Ace6 ($95 in chips)
Seat 5: Playheat ($46.50 in chips)
Seat 6: Malc013 ($165.83 in chips)
Seat 7: Pogue ($42.51 in chips)
Seat 8: win29 ($25 in chips)
Seat 9: Ruthless ($139 in chips)
Seat 10: Chi-Kid ($84.25 in chips)
leviathan: posts small blind $0.50
Ace6: posts big blind $1
win29: posts big blind $1
BMoreE: posts big blind $1 + posts small blind $0.50
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Chi-Kid [Th Tc]
Playheat: folds
Malc013: calls $1
Pogue: folds
win29: checks
Ruthless: calls $1
Chi-Kid: raises to $5.50
BMoreE: folds
samjanus: folds
leviathan: calls $5
Ace6: folds
Malc013: folds
win29: folds
Ruthless: folds
----- FLOP ----- [2h 8s 6s]
leviathan: checks
Chi-Kid: bets $10
leviathan: calls $10
----- TURN ----- [2h 8s 6s][9s]
leviathan: checks
Chi-Kid: bets $15
leviathan: calls $15
----- RIVER ----- [2h 8s 6s 9s][3c]
leviathan: bets $36
Chi-Kid: raises to $53.75 and is all-in
leviathan: folds
Returned uncalled bets $17.75 to Chi-Kid
----- SHOW DOWN -----
Chi-Kid: shows [Th Tc] (A Pair of Tens, Nine high)
Chi-Kid collects $135.50 from Main pot
----- SUMMARY -----
Total pot $138.50 Main pot $135.50 Rake $3
Board [2h 8s 6s 9s 3c]
Seat 1: BMoreE (big blind + small blind) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: samjanus (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: leviathan (small blind) folded on the River
Seat 4: Ace6 (big blind) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Playheat folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Malc013 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: Pogue folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: win29 (big blind) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Ruthless folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 10: Chi-Kid showed [Th Tc] and won ($135.50) with A Pair of Tens, Nine high
****HAND ENDS****

[WhooFleuryScores]

I think you need to fold the river;you are lucky villain did not flop the nut flush/make a straight/set/or even two pair.I would have to believe that your read was so confident that he was bluffing.

[Chicago_Kid]

I think you need to fold the river;you are lucky villain did not flop the nut flush/make a straight/set/or even two pair.I would have to believe that your read was so confident that he was bluffing.

By no means was this guy a fish, but the bet was way too big, and he'd done this several times before on the river. I felt pretty good about it actually.

[Miffed22001]

I think you need to fold the river;you are lucky villain did not flop the nut flush/make a straight/set/or even two pair.I would have to believe that your read was so confident that he was bluffing.

By no means was this guy a fish, but the bet was way too big, and he'd done this several times before on the river. I felt pretty good about it actually.

exactly the way i pwn overpairs.

[Vrax]

Good read but why just not call the river bet and force him to show his air to entire table? Pushing at suspected bluffer makes no sense for me, unless you have junk too and want to re-bluff...I'd just call that bet.

[midas06]

Man, you're like the next aok.

I try my hardest.

[Miffed22001]

Man, you're like the next aok.

I try my hardest.

need a stake?

This isn't stickied yet? Get your rear in gear, chardrian! :P

[Lukie]

bump

Midas, let's discuss the second hand.

Do you really think a guy that is as bad as preflop action indicates (limp/cold call mid pair when he isn't deep enough) always has a set when he check/calls that flop? I disagree. He had it this time but I would really disagree with anyone that told me a guy like this would have 66/99/KK? every time.

In conclusion, although the 10x rule is a nice one to follow mostly, remember who your opponents are. If they can lay down a hand to your set, then it's probably not worth seeing the flop. Another reason I posted this is to help you stop paying off sets, which is about the most annoying thing ever.

How come no mention of if they don't make a hand? IE you are raised by AK and they take it down by a c-bet or 2-barrell with ace high but obviously won't put real money in the pot.

what about when your set is beat, or you get it allin with 75% (or less) equity?

I agree with the point I just think you left out a couple important reasons why.

[johnnyBuz]

vqc, this isn't a bad beat post. this is for learning... i got burned by a set last night. i set myself up and didn't really give myself a chance to find out if i was ahead or behind or not. should have raised more preflop too and checked the turn perhaps.

#Game No : 4395595783
***** Hand History for Game 4395595783 *****
$25 NL Texas Hold'em - Monday, May 29, 23:48:47 ET 2006
Table Table 108107 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 2: pckttwlves ( $43.47 )
Seat 3: dthought1 ( $20.71 )
Seat 6: johnnyBuz ( $26.35 )
Seat 4: GHOSTMONEY3 ( $35.75 )
Seat 5: HERETIC71 ( $27.80 )
Seat 1: UpEnYaFaCe ( $12.18 )
UpEnYaFaCe posts small blind [$0.10].
pckttwlves posts big blind [$0.25].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to johnnyBuz [ Kh Kd ]
dthought1 calls [$0.25].
GHOSTMONEY3 calls [$0.25].
HERETIC71 folds.
johnnyBuz raises [$1.25].
UpEnYaFaCe calls [$1.15].
pckttwlves calls [$1].
dthought1 calls [$1].
GHOSTMONEY3 calls [$1].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 4s, 3s, 9c ]
UpEnYaFaCe checks.
pckttwlves checks.
dthought1 checks.
GHOSTMONEY3 checks.
johnnyBuz bets [$5].
UpEnYaFaCe folds.
pckttwlves calls [$5].
dthought1 folds.
GHOSTMONEY3 folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 2c ]
pckttwlves checks.
>You have options at Table 107915 Table!.
johnnyBuz is all-In [$20.10]
pckttwlves calls [$20.10].
** Dealing River ** [ Jc ]
pckttwlves shows [ 3c, 3h ] three of a kind, threes.
johnnyBuz doesn't show [ Kh, Kd ] a pair of kings.
pckttwlves wins $53.90 from the main pot with three of a kind, threes.

[jackvance]

@Lukie: funny thing.. I wanted to make a post saying pretty much what you are saying here (about different situations, the whole story vs sethunters, etc)... but then I kinda realized that this is one of the stickied information posts for new players, such as Aok's posts are too.. and as much as the simplicity that is advocated here stings me, such as it did too with Aok's posts in the past.. it's probably best to just let it be this way, for the newer players.

[Xianti]

but then I kinda realized that this is one of the stickied information posts for new players, such as Aok's posts are too.. and as much as the simplicity that is advocated here stings me, such as it did too with Aok's posts in the past.. it's probably best to just let it be this way, for the newer players.

I added this note to the Digest sticky:

Please note that much of the advice given here are for new players who need a little help rising above losing or break-even poker, and should not be taken to be the best advice in every situation or against advanced players.

For more advanced tactics, see the Digests in the other forums.

[WhooFleuryScores]

I think I push the turn also here;I'd be more inclined to think villain had a draw.Oh well set into overpair happens.

[ripjohngotti]

Texas Hold'em $2-$2 NL (real money), hand #877,953,690
Table Poona, 20 Aug 2006 08:45 AM



View Previous hand for this table.



Seat 1: -WurstBrot- ($82.80 in chips)
Seat 2: ..bub.. ($112.80 in chips)
Seat 3: Fipsandco ($26.50 in chips)
Seat 4: swiss_made72 ($217.60 in chips)
Seat 5: Vulpes77 ($184.20 in chips)
Seat 6: Alice82 ($249.60 in chips)
Seat 7: Josh132 ($285.70 in chips)
Seat 8: GordonS111 ($194 in chips)
Seat 9: RIPJohnGotti [AH,AS] ($281.20 in chips)
Seat 10: kutusow2 ($184 in chips)



ANTES/BLINDS
..bub.. posts blind ($1), Fipsandco posts blind ($2).

PRE-FLOP
swiss_made72 folds, Vulpes77 folds, Alice82 folds, Josh132 calls $2, GordonS111 folds, RIPJohnGotti bets $11, kutusow2 folds, -WurstBrot- calls $11, ..bub.. folds, Fipsandco folds, Josh132 folds.

FLOP [board cards 7C,8H,3C ]
RIPJohnGotti bets $15, -WurstBrot- calls $15.

TURN [board cards 7C,8H,3C,2S ]
RIPJohnGotti bets $60, -WurstBrot- calls $56.80 and is all-in.

RIVER [board cards 7C,8H,3C,2S,4S ]


SHOWDOWN
RIPJohnGotti shows [ AH,AS ]
-WurstBrot- shows [ 8S,8D ]
RIPJohnGotti wins $3.20, -WurstBrot- wins $167.60.

[sandstorm]

what was the purpose with that post? a shortstack got lucky (you gave him bad odds preflop). nh.