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Too optimistic with AQo?

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  1. #1

    Default Too optimistic with AQo?

    Hi, i'm new both at poker (10 days of real money play) and here (reading for about a month now)

    I was actually quite confident when i played this hand. But now after some thinking i'm not.

    Reads: UTG is 76/22/0.8 over 46 hands, playing any face card. UTG+1 is unknown, it was his 1st hand at a table.

    Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

    saw flop|saw showdown

    SB ($5.14)
    BB ($3.98)
    UTG ($3.63)
    UTG+1 ($5)
    MP1 ($9.81)
    Hero ($5.89)
    CO ($4.74)
    Button ($4.94)

    Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q, A. SB posts a blind of $0.02. UTG+1 posts a blind of $0.04.
    UTG calls $0.04, UTG+1 (poster) raises to $0.13, 1 fold,

    Thoughts: OK, that wasn't a big raise, i have a position on him, but i'm in MP so i just call

    Hero calls $0.17, 4 folds, UTG calls $0.13.

    Flop: ($0.57) K, 9, 4 (3 players)
    UTG checks, UTG+1 checks

    Thoughts: 2 checks... No K? I want to test them, i'm not very happy about my hand right now

    Hero bets $0.3, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $0.30.

    Turn: ($1.17) 4 (2 players)
    UTG+1 bets $0.45

    Thoughts: a pair and a small bet. Still not sure where i am. I've decided to raise and fold if he 3-bet

    Hero raises to $1, UTG+1 calls $0.55.

    River: ($3.17) A (2 players)
    UTG+1 checks, Hero???

    Thoughts: after his call on turn i was pretty sure i'm done with the hand. But with an ace on the river... I don't think i'm against AA or KK here. AK and 99 are possible (even A9 i think), but i'm ahead of much more hands he could have here. Or am i not?

    So, should i bet? If yes, then how much?

    And, more important, what about turn? Fold to a bet against an unknown?
  2. #2
    Turn: all you have is a board pair, so basically you have A-high. I really don't understand how this warrants a min-raise?

    River: lucky river, you're probably ahead now, so I'd value bet something like $1-$2.
  3. #3
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    3,548
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    Putney, UK; Full Tilt,Mansion; $50 NL and PL; $13 and $16 SNGs at Stars
    Yes, I would fold the turn. He has something, you don't, so your only hope is a bluff, but even this is only likely to work if he has x9. Assuming he doesn't have a 4 (and he could have, he's repping one), you only have 8 outs; if he does have one you're drawing dead.

    I hate rivers like this. You are only ahead if he has slowplayed a pair of kings, basically, which is certainly possible at this level. But he could have AK (considering his PF raise), A4 or K9 (if he's a donk), 44 (though I doubt it), even AA. I suspect I would check behind here - you're beaten maybe 60% of the time?

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