Making the right read and losing.

[aytopper]

Recently, i've been noticing that I give my opponents way too much credit for their bets. Basically, it seemed that I wanted them to have a better hand so I could fold. So I start to really examine what they would have bet so much with and giving myself more credit for what I hold. Here are a few examples of what happens when I make a correct read:

I'm just going to get to the point here, early in a tournament. Blinds 20/40.

Dealt to Hero [Ac Jc]
Hero raises to 120
Villian calls 120
*** FLOP *** [Ks 5d Ad]
Hero bets 200
Villian raises to 900
Hero has 15 seconds left to act
Hero raises to 1,295, and is all in
Villian calls 395
Hero shows [Ac Jc]
Villian shows [Kc 4h]
*** TURN *** [Ks 5d Ad] [8d]
*** RIVER *** [Ks 5d Ad 8d] [4c]
Hero shows a pair of Aces
Villian shows two pair, Kings and Fours
Villian wins the pot (2,890) with two pair, Kings and Fours

Blinds are 15/30 on this one.

Dealt to Hero [8c 8s]
Villian raises to 105
Hero calls 105
*** FLOP *** [2h 4h Jd]
Villian bets 1,395, and is all in
Hero calls 1,380, and is all in
Villian shows [4d Kc]
Hero shows [8c 8s]
Uncalled bet of 15 returned to Villian
*** TURN *** [2h 4h Jd] [As]
*** RIVER *** [2h 4h Jd As] [Kh]
Villian shows two pair, Kings and Fours
Hero shows a pair of Eights
Villian wins the pot (3,015) with two pair, Kings and Fours


It's odd that is just so happened to be the exact same hand too. The resoning behind me calling in both of the hands was because their betting made absolutely no sense what so ever. Of course I am punished for making the wrong call. Oh well, thats poker. Anyway, I have a few questions.

1. I constantly think everyone has the best hand unless of course I have the nuts. What can I do to change this mindset?

2. In cases like the above hands, was it right to make the calls?

Any help will be great. Thanks.


-aytopper

[flomo]

are these sit and go or multitable tourneys?

[aytopper]

SnG satellites - 90 person.

[Staresy]

1. I constantly think everyone has the best hand unless of course I have the nuts. What can I do to change this mindset?

2. In cases like the above hands, was it right to make the calls?

1. it's not the worst thing that could happen. You could go the other way and constantly think everyone is bluffing all the time. Work on putting your opponents on a range of hands

2. sorry to answer this one with a question ... but did u get your money in with the best of it??

sounds like a bit of variance maybe. This is Full Tilt? The players there just suck balls. I wouldn't worry. You WANT them calling their stack off (a) w/ K4 in the first place and (b) doing so when they are massively behind. It's how u make money in the long run.

[aytopper]

Thanks for the input Staresy. To answer you question, yes, I got my money in with the best hand so I guess there isn't much more I could do there. I will work more on putting my opponents on a range of hands.

[Staresy]

you said it! nope, there is nothing more you can do. You had your opponent drawing to 5 outs (i.e. u were an 8:1 fave) with only the river to come in both hands.

As for the range of hands business, it is hard. I still struggle a lot with it and I also, like you, constantly talk myself into thinking that opponent has x, y and z .... despite the times I get shown utter rat's piss!

How is your note-taking?
What stakes do you play?

[biondino]

The first hand isn't as cut and dried as you think, maybe. AK or AQ, or a set, might play it the same way, forcing out any flush draws. Ungainly but not that unlikely.

But the point is you'll win massively on these hands - you don't have an edge, you're an overwhelming favourite! The problem is that at these levels, accurate reads are harder to make because people don't play ABC poker very often.

[aytopper]

Lately, I have been doing either $14 + $1 or $24 + $2 satellites on FTP. I almost always make the final table, but getting ITM(entry) seems to be the problem. As for note-taking, it seems I am moved to quickly from the table or my opponents are moved before I can get any real information off of their play. Also, when I do take notes I am too busy typing out what everyone is doing that I just end up giving up. Maybe I am writing to much down. Anyway, if you have any tips for taking notes quickly I would love to hear them. Thanks again for responding.

[TLR]

In both hands you got your money in with the best hand.

The first hand the call makes sense since he did not show any agression preflop, you are ahead more then you are behind I think.

The 2nd hand is read dependant, without a good read I fold it

[aytopper]

Also, in regards to the note taking. Do you use the software to take the notes or just a notepad and pen(cil)? Thanks for the comment TLR.

[Staresy]

the software. You can use as much as space as u want/need.

My notes generally just give a brief overview of a hand from what I saw. e.g.

limped from UTG+1 and then called CO's 4xBB raise w/ KJo .... pushed a J hi flop (20/40 - 8 handed - $22)

stuff like that. It all just builds up to the type of hands and situations that opp will play.

[Lukie]

1. I constantly think everyone has the best hand unless of course I have the nuts. What can I do to change this mindset?

2. In cases like the above hands, was it right to make the calls?




-aytopper

1) stop thinking everyone always has the nuts, they don't. On the flip side, people aren't always bluffing, either.

2) yes and they look like not-so-thinly-veiled bad beat posts. This might help: http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...oker-29808.htm

sounds a bit harsh, but it's great advice (seriously)

[aytopper]

Staresy, once again, thanks for replying. I started taking some notes although a little choppy, effective. As an update I finally won a $24 +$2 satellite. And to Lukie, I wasn't posting this as a bad beat or complaining about it, just wanted some advice on improving my game. Guess you have to read the whole post.