More to post-flop play than pot odds?

[andy609]

I really like this site but I noticed in the strategy section there is very little on post-flop play, which I where I feel I lose my money. I understand pot odds and pricing people out of draws and stuff. I'm probably too attached to TPTK, but how do you tell when this is beat, especially by a two pair and especially more so if they don't reraise you? I just got Poker Tracker and I wasn't able to import all my recent hands because I have switched sites a couple of times, but my stats for the 1200 hands (which I know isn't very much) I do have are:

VP$IP: 20.37%
W$WSF: 37.68%
BB/100: -10.81 (sounds bad, but is only $25)
WTSD: 21.83%
W$ASD: 43.55 (This is the one that concerns me)
PFR: 8.10%

[jackvance]

Your preflop stats indeed look fine. About TP.. depends on reads for the most part. If a non-calling station guy calls you down, be worried. Basically, you pray they won't hit something better than your TPTK. Over the long run you should be fine.

To illustrate, I just played 200 hands, and my top two most profitable hands:

1. AQ (got it once, made me $6)
2. AA (got it 3 times, made me $3.33)

The one AQ hand should be interesting, it was vs a calling station:

** Game ID 803560460 starting - 2006-05-24 00:39:10
** Remind Me [Hold em] (0.05|0.10 No Limit - Cash Game) Real Money
- jackvance sitting in seat 1 with $16.58
- PellePonken sitting in seat 2 with $9.90
- loran53 sitting in seat 3 with $8.02
- Sipsilver sitting in seat 4 with $11.20
- eliotbay sitting in seat 5 with $20.04
- Skifell sitting in seat 6 with $3.20 [Dealer]
jackvance posted the small blind - $0.05
PellePonken posted the big blind - $0.10
** Dealing card to jackvance: Queen of Hearts, Ace of Clubs
loran53 called - $0.10
Sipsilver called - $0.10
eliotbay called - $0.10
Skifell folded
jackvance raised - $0.70
PellePonken folded
loran53 folded
Sipsilver folded
eliotbay called - $0.70
** Dealing the flop: Jack of Clubs, 3 of Clubs, Queen of Diamonds
jackvance bet - $1.10
eliotbay called - $1.10
** Dealing the turn: 8 of Clubs
jackvance bet - $2.20
eliotbay called - $2.20
** Dealing the river: 10 of Diamonds
jackvance bet - $2.00
eliotbay called - $2.00
jackvance shows: Queen of Hearts, Ace of Clubs
eliotbay mucks:
jackvance wins $12.00 from the main pot
End of game 803560460

TPTK is great, really, just be careful and lay it down when you get reraised or slow down when a tight player keeps smooth calling you.

[andy609]

Point taken. I would have played that hand almost exactly the same, maybe bet a little more on the turn and river.

[jackvance]

It's important that you don't bet too much, otherwise you fold out the weaker hands. Also, this way a monster hand might get greedy and raise over you, so you know you are beat. In this particular hand, the third club was already on the turn, so if he was chasing that I was already dead. No need to bet too high anymore.

[andy609]

lol, I think it was a post by you that got me to increase the size of my turn bets.

Tell me what you think of how I played this one (I love how he went all-in on the river):

Hand #31223146-665 at Santa Fe (No Limit Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 23/May/06 00:51:31

dddan is at seat 0 with $6.17.
andy609 is at seat 1 with $18.45.
BobbySeattle is at seat 2 with $4.90.
wwfgan is at seat 3 with $9.60.
tvaal is at seat 4 with $12.90.
al221 is at seat 5 with $6.12.
Whlgnr is at seat 6 with $5.02.
AL CHESSCHAMP is at seat 7 with $10.10.
Seven_of_Cups is at seat 8 with $8.45.
ssm is at seat 9 with $3.
The button is at seat 6.

AL CHESSCHAMP posts the small blind of $.05.
Seven_of_Cups posts the big blind of $.10.

dddan: -- --
andy609: Qc Ks
BobbySeattle: -- --
wwfgan: -- --
tvaal: -- --
al221: -- --
Whlgnr: -- --
AL CHESSCHAMP: -- --
Seven_of_Cups: -- --
ssm: -- --

Pre-flop:

ssm folds. dddan folds. andy609 raises to $.40.
BobbySeattle folds. wwfgan calls. tvaal calls.
al221 folds. Whlgnr calls. AL CHESSCHAMP folds.
Seven_of_Cups folds.

Flop (board: 4c 5c 4h):

andy609 bets $.90. wwfgan calls. tvaal calls.
Whlgnr folds.

Turn (board: 4c 5c 4h Qh):

andy609 bets $7. wwfgan calls. tvaal folds.

River (board: 4c 5c 4h Qh 3s):

andy609 bets $1.30. wwfgan goes all-in for $1.30.



Showdown:

andy609 shows Qc Ks.
andy609 has Qc Ks 4c 4h Qh: two pair, queens and fours.
wwfgan shows Kc 7c.
wwfgan has Kc 7c 4c 4h Qh: a pair of fours.


Hand #31223146-665 Summary:

$1.05 is raked from a pot of $21.05.
andy609 wins $20 with two pair, queens and fours.

[jackvance]

ol, I think it was a post by you that got me to increase the size of my turn bets.

Heh.. but it depends on the situation.

Tell me what you think of how I played this one (I love how he went all-in on the river)

Ehm, to be honest, I think you grossly overplayed your hand and you were kinda lucky he called with a mere draw. On the flop the pot is like $0.95 and you bet $0.90. A bit much. Then on the turn the pot is $2.75 and you bet $7?!

Here's a fresh hand of my own play with KQ

** Game ID 803794736 starting - 2006-05-24 05:10:19
** Palmers Green [Hold em] (0.10|0.20 No Limit - Cash Game) Real Money
- KnK sitting in seat 1 with $4.05 [Dealer]
- Huzy sitting in seat 2 with $25.00
- Shelby13 sitting in seat 3 with $15.15
- steelers35 sitting in seat 4 with $26.50
- jackvance sitting in seat 5 with $24.25
- SkinnyPimp sitting in seat 6 with $8.50
Huzy posted the small blind - $0.10
Shelby13 posted the big blind - $0.20
** Dealing card to jackvance: Queen of Clubs, King of Diamonds
steelers35 folded
jackvance raised - $0.80
SkinnyPimp called - $0.80
KnK folded
Huzy called - $0.80
Shelby13 called - $0.80
** Dealing the flop: 6 of Spades, Queen of Diamonds, 9 of Clubs
Huzy checked
Shelby13 checked
jackvance bet - $2.00
SkinnyPimp called - $2.00
Huzy folded
Shelby13 called - $2.00
** Dealing the turn: 6 of Clubs
Shelby13 checked
jackvance bet - $2.40
SkinnyPimp called - $2.40
Shelby13 folded
** Dealing the river: 8 of Spades
jackvance bet - $3.40
SkinnyPimp went all-in - $3.30
SkinnyPimp shows: 8 of Hearts, 7 of Hearts
jackvance wins $20.30 from the main pot
End of game 803794736

I made 55 big blinds in this hand with TPHK..

(to flomo: this happened just after you left man, thx for making room for this guy lol)

[andy609]

Ehm, to be honest, I think you grossly overplayed your hand and you were kinda lucky he called with a mere draw. On the flop the pot is like $0.95 and you bet $0.90. A bit much. Then on the turn the pot is $2.75 and you bet $7?!

The pot was actually $1.35 on the flop and $4.05 on the turn. I know the turn bet was pretty huge, but I didn't want to give odds to the second guy if the first one called and absurd ones to either one individually.

[jackvance]

The pot was actually $1.35 on the flop and $4.05 on the turn. I know the turn bet was pretty huge, but I didn't want to give odds to the second guy if the first one called and absurd ones to either one individually.

Oh my bad. Yes I see it now. Ok then I like it except for the turn bet. Here I bet $3.20-$3.50. It's enough. Ofcourse if you had a strong read that someone would call with a draw, then your line is great lol

[cardsman1992]

Your PF and PFR percentage are okay, don't worry too much about the win at SD%. If you are playing good cards at 10NL that will work itself out, as well as the BB/100. Right now after 6K hands at 10NL plugging leaks, I am running almost 14 BB/100. This is at 21.7/11/2.5 postflop aggression. My win at showdown is 53%. At 25NL it was 44% and I was profitable at a rate of 12BB/100 through 12K hands at that percentage before it all went south.

At 10NL it boils down to hitting sets and getting paid, staying out of the way of the flush chasers (yes they do call raises with 37 sooted) when they hit, and playing good kickers. With your flop percentage it seems like you at least play good kickers. These guys play any Ace, so if you play AT and above, you will outkick them far more than they outkick you.

The KQ hand you post, I do think you overbet the turn and got lucky he called. I would have bet 3/4 pot or pot sized. You pretty much committed yourself on the turn.

[jackvance]

At 10NL it boils down to hitting sets and getting paid, staying out of the way of the flush chasers (yes they do call raises with 37 sooted) when they hit, and playing good kickers.

I have to say I totally disagree with this.. although it might be the shorthanded vs longhanded difference. To me, in 6max, it's all about knowing (or suspecting) the strategy my opponent uses and then using an approach that exploits this.

This is probably why 10max doesn't appeal to me at all. Look at the facts.. you have 9 opponents, so the cards matter a lot more than in 6max since someone probably has something good. And you only have to pay the blinds one fifth of the time. All this really favors nutcamping. Where is my edge in that? Everyone who has read a book can nutcamp. In 6max people are forced to act a lot more, and with weaker hands, so any skill difference is much better exploitable. MTTs are 10handed, but atleast the increasing blinds force people to act, so this is fine.. general 10max there is zero incentive to do anything but nutcamp imo..

[cardsman1992]

Didn't notice it was 6 max. That does make a difference....20% VP$IP is a little low for 6 max, isn't it? Raising about half the pots or more that you enter is pretty solid. I tend to raise right around 50% of the pots I enter, no matter the level I play.

[jackvance]

Well, he seems to be playing 10max so your advice is probably on target.. I was just kind of trying to advertise 6max a bit, for those who want to learn more poker. I mean, at 10max, nutcamping is a winning strategy, but you don't really learn all the subtleties about position, reads, playing your opp's cards, etc.. those are probably necessary when you move up to higher limits.