A lesson in why limping with real hands is bad

[chardrian]

Game #1382359475 - Tournament $80,000 R&A - 100/200 No Limit Texas Hold'em -
2006/03/29-21:42:23.2 (CST)
Table "$80,000 R&A 5" (MTT) -- Seat 6 is the button
Seat 1: hungryhippos (18,175 in chips)
Seat 2: Mr. Lobo (18,865 in chips)
Seat 3: Jcclan (6,097 in chips)
Seat 4: MajorTim (8,400 in chips)
Seat 5: chardrian (21,750 in chips)
Seat 6: cranky (17,080 in chips)
Seat 7: MrWinstons (4,145 in chips)
Seat 8: MrOpus (2,960 in chips)
Seat 9: P0KERPR0 (9,805 in chips)
Seat 10: lumberone (1,560 in chips)
Mr. Lobo: Ante (25)
Jcclan : Ante (25)
MajorTim: Ante (25)
chardrian: Ante (25)
cranky : Ante (25)
MrWinstons: Ante (25)
MrOpus : Ante (25)
P0KERPR0: Ante (25)
lumberone: Ante (25)
hungryhippos: Ante (25)
MrWinstons: Post Small Blind (100)
MrOpus : Post Big Blind (200)
Dealing...
Dealt to chardrian [ 4s ]
Dealt to chardrian [ 5c ]
P0KERPR0: LIMPS (200)
lumberone: Fold
hungryhippos: Call (200)
Mr. Lobo: Fold
Jcclan : Call (200)
MajorTim: Fold
chardrian: Call (200) from the Cut-Off
cranky : Fold
MrWinstons: Call (100)
MrOpus : Check
6 players now see a *** FLOP *** : [ 4c Kd 8c ]
Pot has 1450
MrWinstons: Check
MrOpus : Check
P0KERPR0: Under Bet (400)
hungryhippos: Fold
Jcclan : Fold
chardrian: Call (400) - because it is cheap, I have position on a bad player, I have 5 outs, and I want to see what he will do on the turn.MrWinstons: Fold
MrOpus : Fold
*** TURN *** : [ 4c Kd 8c ] [ 2s ]
Pot now has 2250.
P0KERPR0: Under Bet again (600)
MrOpus said, "hey lumberone is that Manchester, MO your from?"
chardrian: Call (600) - now I realize I am probably beat here, he most likely has the K. But he might just have a flush draw and it is still cheap and he is bad enough that if my 10% chance hits he will pay me off.
*** RIVER *** : [ 4c Kd 8c 2s ] [ 5h ]
Pot now has 3450
lumberone said, "no, manchester NH"
P0KERPR0: Under Bet one more time (700)
MrOpus said, "oh"
chardrian: Raise (2,525) and probably didn't raise enough
P0KERPR0: Call (1,825)
*** SUMMARY ***
Pot: 8,500 | Board: [ 4c Kd 8c 2s 5h ]
hungryhippos lost 225 (folded)
Mr. Lobo lost 25 (folded)
Jcclan lost 225 (folded)
MajorTim lost 25 (folded)
chardrian bet 3,750, collected 8,500, net +4,750 (showed hand) [ 4s 5c ] (two
pair, fives and fours)
cranky lost 25 (folded)
MrWinstons lost 225 (folded)
MrOpus lost 225 (folded)
P0KERPR0 lost 3,750 [ Qc Qh ] (a pair of queens)
lumberone lost 25 (folded)

[Irisheyes]

Is this still in the rebuy hour?

[chardrian]

Is this still in the rebuy hour?

No.

[Irisheyes]

I dunno man, seems like a great way to leak off a load of chips limping and calling and whatnot with a weak hand thats not really going anywhere. You basically sucked out on him with good implied odds.

[chardrian]

You basically sucked out on him with good implied odds.

Exactly. My mistake was not pouncing on him.

His (worse) mistake was playing this hand how he did - aggressively weak.

[chardrian]

I dunno man, seems like a great way to leak off a load of chips limping and calling and whatnot with a weak hand thats not really going anywhere.

The bold is where you are wrong. I am still big bad chip leader at my table even if I fold on the river.

If he had bet appropriately at any point than yes, calling would have been leaking off a "load" of chips. But he underbet every street meaning I was at worst going to leak off a few chips.

Whether you think my limp with 45 os in the CO is bad is also not the intent of my post (although I don't mind discussing it). The point was to show why limping big hands (in this case QQ) is dumb/bad/stooooopid.

[Irisheyes]

I dunno man, seems like a great way to leak off a load of chips limping and calling and whatnot with a weak hand thats not really going anywhere.

The bold is where you are wrong. I am still big bad chip leader at my table even if I fold on the river.

Surely a -EV call is a -EV call whether you are chip leader or not? -EV calls are bad.

If he had bet appropriately at any point than yes, calling would have been leaking off a "load" of chips. But he underbet every straight meaning I was at worst going to leak off a few chips.

I think you're being slightly results orientated though. With the K out there and the fact that betting like this he could have anything, what makes you so sure that he wont fold when you raise the river.

I guess my main point is what ever happened to pot odds?

[jackvance]

I think the main point you prove here is that gambles pay off sometimes, even if the odds are against you, lol..

[chardrian]

No - my main point was to try and show why limping a real good hand is a bad idea.

Just for fun, we could change my history and show that I made this play with TK. If he had raised preflop with QQ, none of this would have happened. That's my main point.

But instead it looks like we want to discuss my play.

And I am ok with that too.

Looking at it just from pot odds - on the flop I have to call 400 into an 1850 pot. 400/2250 = 17.8%. I give myself 5 outs (even if he has the flush draw he can't hit it with the remaining 4 or 5 that I need) at worst and the best hand at best.

I like to determine my outs street by street as I don't know how much he will bet on the turn. 5 outs = approx 10%.

So if I am behind , I am not getting pot odds - but I am not getting staggeringly bad odds either considering that I might actually be ahead and with implied odds might make much mroe value.

Turn is a blank. Now I have to call 600 into a 2850 pot. 600/3450 = 17.3%. Again I have either 5 outs or I have the best hand. With another 10% chance to hit again I am -EV here on pot odds alone but when combined with the fact that my pair might actually be best (he easily could be betting a hand like AcTc this way), combined with implied odds combined with my deep stack, I call again.

He never ever made it a hard decision for me to call. And although calling is usually a weak play, when a bad opponent gives you the right odds to call you shouldn't necessarily pass it up just because the pot odds are not +EV. Again that's the whole point of implied odds.

To be perfectly honest - I didn't even go through these calculations in my head. I knew I had about a ten percent chance on each street to hit, and I knew he was betting so weak that he was bad enough that he would probably pay me off. Like I said - I think my mistake was not betting more when I did hit.

[jackvance]

No - my main point was to try and show why limping a real good hand is a bad idea.

Heh, didn't mean to critique your play, I'm ofcourse in no position to do so. But he played pretty bad after the flop too, I think he took the bigger risk there than with the preflop limp.

And for reference, I do agree with your point, and I still raise my AA/KK always.. just not the max of my raises all the time. Sometimes max, sometimes lower. So that if someone IS paying attention, there's still some randomness in there. Also I think if you limp AA preflop, you're hoping someone else is going to raise so you're up against someone who will pay off when he hits something which you have a good chance of having beat. Sitting on AA after the whole table limped in is just too risky imho..

[drmcboy]

this is not -EV, especially with the 5c in your hands, so all the trips/two pair outs are good. without 5c I would let it go.

I will say it's dangerous to plant too many implied odds thoughts here in the beginner forum. Any two can't win (yet).

[Warpe]

I will say it's dangerous to plant too many implied odds thoughts here in the beginner forum. Any two can't win (yet).

[FlyingSaucy]

i don't think there's anything too crazy about the way you played it here. You are playing his hand pretty effectively, not yours. If he checks the river (even if you didn't hit), you can put him to make a tough decision without risking a big chunk of your stack. You have position and the chips to cover him. He's in that high/mid range where he doesn't want to be risking a lot of his stack with a moderate hand. Nice play overall, one that I'm not sure I would make but I respect the insight.

[chardrian]

Heh, didn't mean to critique your play, I'm ofcourse in no position to do so. But he played pretty bad after the flop too, I think he took the bigger risk there than with the preflop limp.

I want you and everyone else to critique my play - that's one of the main reasons I post hands.

And yes, he played his hand like crap on every street. My focus when posting this hand was to point out his bad play, which all started with his limp preflop.

[chardrian]

I will say it's dangerous to plant too many implied odds thoughts here in the beginner forum. Any two can't win (yet).

Point taken.

[Irisheyes]

Just for fun, we could change my history and show that I made this play with TK.

If it was KT then I like it. It's probably just differences in our play styles, I generally like larger edge plays. I guess on further inspection this is at least breakeven, better then that probably. I agree with drmc though, this is marginal for beginners and somewhat player dependant.

[Rondavu]

Irish, if you read a UTG limp as strong, and a lot of limpers come along, you should also be limping a wide range in position, especially drawing hands. It's +EV with the pot/implied odds. Never mind the fact that Chard has a big stack. That's just icing on the limp cake. This hand was played excellent IMO. 45 is a great hand to see a flop with in that spot for a basketfull of reasons (though I'd rather it be 56, the rocket killer). Look into it and add this to your arsenal ASAP. You know 56 beats AA more than any other hand right? (I'm sure you do. I don't want to seem patronizing)

This post is about more than underplaying a made hand regardless of Chards intention in posting it. It demonstrates an intelligent player limping a speculative hand in position that will win a big pot or lose a small one. This will be one of my points of discussion in the MTT maximum value article I still plan to write (wink).

You simply have to see a flop in this spot ALL DAY LONG. I think even if you don't read UTG as loaded high, you still have good pot odds.

If it was KT then I like it.

KT has two main possibilities. It can draw to a straight or be dominated. In that regard I prefer 45 over KT. What do you do with KT if a second K hits the river and the villain makes a huge bet?

[ElKrem]

You know 56 beats AA more than any other hand right? (I'm sure you do. I don't want to seem patronizing)

Please, be patronizing! I didn't realize this until I read this post and had to think through why this could be the case. Then I PokerStove'd it. Wow.

( I've been lurking at FTR for a long time -- figured it's time I at least posted once to say thanks )

[Irisheyes]

You know 56 beats AA more than any other hand right? (I'm sure you do. I don't want to seem patronizing)

Please, be patronizing! I didn't realize this until I read this post and had to think through why this could be the case. Then I PokerStove'd it. Wow.

( I've been lurking at FTR for a long time -- figured it's time I at least posted once to say thanks )

elo.