Creating dead money +EV?

[dev]

This concept has been working its way around my head for a while, so I thought I'd get your ideas on it.

This is the beginning of a hand I played in a live 2/5 game:
9-handed, I'm on the BB, the table is fairly good skill-wise, with maybe a rock and a bunch of medium-loose agros and laggs. UTG folds, everyone else limps for 5. So the pot is $45 and if I rap on the table we see a flop.

I make it $80 to go, so $75 more to everyone at the table.
What hand I had specifically isn't really important to this discussion, the hand ended very badly for me, but the concept is what I'm talking about.

Say the table is more taggy, and the raise is $45 instead of $75 more, that way it's $45 to call into a $90 pot. Some of the time you take the pot down, more of the time you isolate against one or two players, and 1/3 of the pot is just dead money, giving you lots of extra equity. What kind of a hand do you need to make this move? What if you're on the button or the cutoff?

[jackvance]

The only hands this will give you +EV with (ignoring that you try bluffs etc) are the ones that give you the highest chance to win right off the bat. Ie, the usual AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AK/AQ etc.

Two problems I can see with your reasoning:
1. A little math problem. If the pot is $45 and you raise $45, then your opp needs to call $45 into a $135 pot, not a $90 pot. So that's 1/3.
2. Since you represent a good hand here, the only callers you'll get are the ones that think they got a shot at a good hand. So if you are playing a crappy (or marginal) hand, you might think the dead money gives you +EV, but in reality because of what the callers will have, your % chance to win is so shafted that it's probably -EV.

[Pelion]

Its nice because usually you are getting called by the loose-passive guy who you want to be in the pot with, and all the TAGs fold. You have to be careful not to get too carried away those times when you actually run into a hand though. Im starting to isoraise more and more with slightly less than premium hands (AT kinda thing) when there are plenty of limpers and someone really horrible I can get headsup with.

[dev]

My math was fine, we're both right, do you see why? (hehe)
I used an odds ratio you used a fraction of the total AFTER the call.

A little pokerstove action:
If I have pocket dueces(scoff), and they call with AA,KK,QQ,AKs and AKo, I'm 34% to win, which is positive since my money makes up 1/3 of the pot. Add AQ and JJ to the range and I'm almost 40%.

This is all theory, and I don't think I'd do this on deuces, but I'm hoping for some good thoughts on what kind of guidelines you would need for this move. I think the deuces example really only works if you're AI or can read your opponents god-like after the flop.

Position is also a big thing here. If you're not AI, and in the blinds, you really can't play with the idea of showing down an unimproved pocket pair that isn't an overpair to the board. From late position you'd have more options.

[jackvance]

Well, the fraction after the call is the only ratio that matters. If you can't see the statistical reason for this.. maybe I can advise you to take your calculations with a grain of salt. (no offense here, but it's rather dangerous if you start basing strategies on your math when it's possibly flawed)

Now, if he will call with AA,KK,QQ,AK, and we know that the odds to get AK are equal to the odds to get AA/KK/QQ, then in 50% of the cases you have a cointoss to win, and in 50% of the other cases you are dominated.

Add to that the fact that unless you hit your set on the flop, you don't really know where you stand. (the reason that 22 vs AK is a cointoss is mostly that you win when they hit nothing.. and a little bit b/c of the fact that you win when they hit and you get a set.. but without seeing their cards it's kinda hard to gauge whether they hit something or not when the flop gives like a Q) So then basically what this boils down to is.. set-hunting with a low pp, what everyone does.

[dev]

If you calculate pot odds required to call on the turn with a flush draw, you're talking about 1/5 or 4:1 against. Either one is 20%. No need to argue about it, we're both saying the same thing.

If you want to prove something, we'll set up a HU game. If you want to add to a discussion, please discuss the topic rather than just trying to give me shit about odds calculations that ARE CORRECT.

I'm not asking how to play a specific hand, I'm talking about a play somewhat similar to a squeeze play and where and when it should be used. 22, AK, 94o, whatever works to prove your point ABOUT THE TOPIC.

[jackvance]

Ehm, I really didn't mean to give you any shit here man. This is actually my way of honestly trying to discuss what you said, without any ad hominem actions or degrading ideas in mind. And I didn't see any 4:1 anywhere, I saw you say $45 into a $90 pot.. when I see this, people usually have the misconception to think 1/2 here.. if you however (correctly) read this as 1:2 or 1/3, then it's all good yes.

And eh, I did discuss the topic. If you have 22, against 32 hands (AK) you have 52% to win. Against 36 hands (AA/KK/QQ) you're the 17.5% dog. So your expected chance to win in this model would be:

(32/68)(52%)+(36/68)(17.5%)=24.4%+9.2%= roughly 1/3. So just about what you put in the pot.

But the difficulty, as I said, is that in the 22vsAK scenario, you win most of it when you both hit nothing and your 22 pair is the highest hand. But in a realistic scenario, it's rather difficult to judge whether your opp hit something or not. This leads to the sort of situation where he will only call your raises with a better hand, and fold with a lesser hand. This is a bad position to be in..

[Fnord]

Your biggest problem here is that loose/passive will call and being out of position against multiple players like this will defeat the value of your aggression. Also, being out of position in a raised pot is going to make pot control very difficult.

[dev]

So how about from the button?
Position kinda makes this more of a standard play for me, but I've never really had a discussion on whys and whens. It's really just an overbet preflop. I figure most players who don't know you might put you on a monster pair or just a steal, but can we still narrow their hand ranges significantly enough to get an edge on the pot + the dead money?

I make this play a lot with AK, tens, nines... sort of the kinds of hands I'd rather not play without a really good read.

NB:the reason I don't like AK is that it doesn't usually have much stacking ability and you sometimes have to lose a bunch before you know you're beat. I'd prefer small pairs and SCs.