the definitive AK flop thread

[Iconoclastic]

I was inspired to do a little math after the following hand:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) converter

UTG+1 ($46.60) Reads: raises KK PF and bets half pot with an overpair on FTR
MP1 ($14.55)
MP2 ($48)
MP3 ($61.80)
CO ($51.90)
Button ($8.70)
Hero ($59.65)
BB ($46.45)
UTG ($55.55)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Ad, Kc.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 2 folds, MP3 calls $0.50, 1 fold, Button calls $0.50, Hero raises to $3.5, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $3, MP3 folds, Button folds.

Flop: ($8.50) 7d, 5c, Kh (2 players)
Hero bets $8.1 (I think I meant to hit 5 on the numpad), UTG+1 raises to $16.2, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $32.80

My play here had something to do with my previous AK post and the conclusions reached therein. http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...oker-31418.htm

However, after crunching the numbers, I realized I made a $12 mistake by folding.

PokerStove
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 44.8221 % 31.57% 13.25% { AdKc }
Hand 2: 55.1779 % 41.92% 13.25% { AA, 77, 55, AKs, KQs, AKo, KQo }

With that equity and winning $59.7 when I win and losing $26.9 when I lose, I had a EV of nearly +$12 by making a pot commiting raise, instead of the $0 I got by folding.

With similar calculations, I discovered that if the board had 2 of a suit that my equity would be even higher since I'm a 65% favorite against a flush draw. I also calculated my equity on 2 of a suit Flops if I called the Raise on the Flop and then led a safe Turn card compared to just Reraising the Flop. Reraising the Flop had more EV since you're more likely to make your opponent make a mistake with a Flush Draw on the flop rather than on the Turn and plus you won't lose the amount of your call on the Flop.

In fact, this line would not begin to become -EV until our stacks were 250BBs, which almost never happens at Small to Medium stakes NLHE. Of course this is barring a read that an opponent is a Rock, in which case your equity goes down to below 25%.

Conclusions: When HU against a non-Rock opponent with TPTK on a non threatening board, AK is good enough for stacks, 2 of a suit or not. When 3 way or more (from the previous thread), it isn't against non-Maniac opponents.

[Galapogos]

Why isn't KK included?

[Iconoclastic]

Why isn't KK included?

It was omitted due to 1) I have seen him raise KK before 2) making it even less likely 3) to balance out a donk factor or a bluff

[WhooFleuryScores]

I'm pushing that flop everytime;if he stacks me he stacks good for him he got his set.

[Ebene]

First, I would take out AA because very few people would just limp/call with it. Limp/raise maybe, but not limp/call. Next, if you are giving your oppenent much credit I wouldn't expect him to call you with KQ. Then you get:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 25.8838 % 00.88% 25.00% { AdKc }
Hand 2: 74.1162 % 49.12% 25.00% { 77, 55, AKs, AKo }

Which is definitely -EV. But if there is any chance your opponent is bluffing and/or will fold to a push, then this could push it back to positive EV. With a 10% chance that your oppenent folds to a push, you're looking at around -$3.4. Personally, I've seen a lot of players raise in this situation holding anything from KQ to K5 to JJ-88 if they suspect you are just making a cbet, so I would put the chance of your opponent folding at at least 20%, but that still puts you at -$0.31. With a 30% chance that your opponent folds, you're at +$2.7, and 25-30% seems about right to me.

I can definitely see that if you added in the possibility of a semi-bluff with a flush draw (or 64 in this situation) that this would help the situation.

[Demiparadigm]

I'm pushing that flop everytime;if he stacks me he stacks good for him he got his set.

This is by FAR the worst thing you could do. It allows worse hands to fold, and no better hand is folding.

[salsa4ever]

I'm pushing that flop everytime;if he stacks me he stacks good for him he got his set.

This is by FAR the worst thing you could do. It allows worse hands to fold, and no better hand is folding.

I would agree

[WhooFleuryScores]

Yeah come to think of it I'm only going to get called by a better hand.

What do you guys recommend as the bets play then?

[Pelion]

Probably just fold if hes a normal semi tight semi passive player.

If hes likely to be trying to push me around the best play is probably to call, then check/raise allin on the turn.

[Ebene]

I'd call, check to him and see what he does on the turn. At this point there is still a good chance he's got K's w/ a lower kicker or a pocket pair and was just trying to combat what he thought was a cbet. If that's the case he probably won't bet the turn for any meaningful amount, and you should be safe to value bet on the river.

If he comes out firing strong on the turn, then I'd get out.

[ProZachNation]

I like Ebenes line, this could just be a bet to steal fomr a cont. bet, your bet on the flop could eaisly apear to be a steal.

I would call it, and check, if he bets big lay it down(if he has the balls to fire both barrels like that on a steal good for him) if he bets small I am going with my read of a steal and trying to take the pot down right there. If he checks the turn and the river didnt pair the board Im gona value bet it.