hand for debate ref Rond/Fnords lengthy discussion today.

[siknd]

heres a situation where im facing a laggy opponent, only i have posn. this relates to the "would you rather have the 1st and 3rd bets, or the second"

#Game No : 3757471038
***** Hand History for Game 3757471038 *****
$100 NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, March 16, 19:08:22 ET 2006
Table Table 96972 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 10: siknd ( $85.77 )
Seat 5: BadManJose25 ( $43 )
Seat 2: bgmouthtwink ( $83.20 )
Seat 8: DaBall ( $9.80 )
Seat 7: Gee01757 ( $100.98 )
Seat 6: BigBoobs221 ( $45.15 )
Seat 1: r6ryder09 ( $125.50 )
Seat 9: Matt18535 ( $99 )
Seat 4: jdillon888 ( $57.10 )
Seat 3: balkark ( $92.15 )
r6ryder09 posts small blind [$0.50].
bgmouthtwink posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to siknd [ 8d 8s ]
balkark folds.
jdillon888 folds.
BadManJose25 folds.
BigBoobs221 calls [$1].
Gee01757 calls [$1].
DaBall calls [$1].
Matt18535 calls [$1].
siknd raises [$4].
r6ryder09 folds.
bgmouthtwink calls [$3].
BigBoobs221 folds.
Gee01757 folds.
DaBall calls [$3].
Matt18535 calls [$3].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 4c, 6h, 2d ]
bgmouthtwink checks.
DaBall checks.
Matt18535 bets [$4].
siknd raises [$14].
bgmouthtwink folds.
DaBall folds.
Matt18535 raises [$26].
siknd ?

[Fnord]

If you're going to bump this pre-flop, pot it. Building a pot was part of the problem here. At least $6, probably $7 or $8.

BTW, the weak-bet/min-3-bet is a pretty popular line. I haven't looked up enough of them to really say much more than that.

Sometimes I'll just call the flop in spots like this intending to raise any turn card.

[r8ed]

Sometimes I'll just call the flop in spots like this intending to raise any turn card.

...except you may bring along two others. You have a low chance of winning the hand unless you hit one of your two outs if you let them tag along. I'd say this guy's line lets you know you are beat - you should thank him for not smooth-calling.

As to your question - I'd rather act last in these cases. Say you are first to bet and you throw out 1/2-3/4 (I assume you would). Then he reraises you. You would think he's just throwing your cbet back in your face and play the turn not knowing where you stand. If you just check, you are in the same situation just cheaper to the turn most likely. Him betting low then reraising you is usually a very strong line. At a minimum you're looking at a higher PP but often a set or better. I use this line and I've never done it when I didn't feel confident I was ahead. A check-raise is more likely to be a bluff than this line in my mind.

[Renton]

Just call preflop. You're getting at least 3:1 on your money here, and with 8:1 to make a set, you're making a hugely profitable play. There are too many limpers to make an aggressive position play without bloating the pot. I'd just set farm here.

[r8ed]

Just call preflop. You're getting at least 3:1 on your money here, and with 8:1 to make a set, you're making a hugely profitable play. There are too many limpers to make an aggressive position play without bloating the pot. I'd just set farm here.

Raising 88 in LP with limpers is for long term results - not just for this hand. These guys don't have anything or they would have raised. At best one or two may have a low PP, but once one guy calls the next guy has better odds to follow with lesser holdings. With that many limpers, you may want to bump it up higher like Fnord mentions though.

[BankItDrew]

Set farming is for limits lower than 100NL.

Like r8ed said, thank villain for telling you early that he's ahead. Do you think 77 is 3-betting here on a 6 high board into the PFR?

[Renton]

Set farming is for limits lower than 100NL.

Like r8ed said, thank villain for telling you early that he's ahead. Do you think 77 is 3-betting here on a 6 high board into the PFR?

Sure, the practice of only playing PP's for sets is only for limits lower than 100nl. However, in this case, I think just calling is a viable option because in order to take control of the hand with a raise, it needs to be a pretty big raise. So what will happen is, you will end up 2 or 3 ways to the flop with a $25+ pot. So you end up playing a big pot with a pair of 8's, which is a pretty sticky situation to be in.

[siknd]

this was a tough spot. my first thought was my god, hes putting a play on me because he thinks ive missed the flop with big cards. he must think ive made a c-bet, and can knock me off the hand.

my second thought was that because of his relative position and my small raise it is POSSible that he has made two pair here (he was getting 4:1 pf to call with a suited gapper say 64) and wants to win the pot right now.

i dismissed the possibility that he would play the nut straight or a set like this.

that left me with the possibility that he had a larger medium pair, and had been waiting for a low flop before making a move?

i made the raise to find out exactly where i was, and couldnt afford to let the whole field see a 4$ turn.

i was very uncomfortable folding this hand, but i did. i wanted him to show his cards, so i used one of my oldest tricks, i said "nice slowplay"

he showed A4o.

noted.

[siknd]

Just call preflop. You're getting at least 3:1 on your money here, and with 8:1 to make a set, you're making a hugely profitable play. There are too many limpers to make an aggressive position play without bloating the pot. I'd just set farm here.

nah. this is fucked. unless you are considering you implied odds (read unhatched chickens) you have your odds backwards. accepting 3:1 on an 8:1 is hugely UNprofitable. i would need every player in the hand to limp in order to get the right odds for set hunting, and even then its not hugely profitable, by the #s.

also, its 7:1 to make a set, ie 1/8.

and im not afraid to build a pot in posn vs limpers. for one, im getting a running start at the pot if i do set up. but more importantly, i probably have the best hand.

[Renton]

Of course you are considering implied odds. I am not debating that there is a strong argument for raising this preflop. What I am getting is that it is also a good play to call. You are getting 3:1 pot odds, when you're 7:1 to hit your set, which means, you only need to get a half pot bet called on the flop if you hit your set for it to be profitable. Realistically, you'd almost always get more than a half pot bet called on the flop with all these players. This is what makes calling a profitable play.

[Lukie]

Havn't read the thread past the original post so forgive me if what I say has already been covered.

I don't like PF. Raising to $4 just sucks IMO. I like $7.50 or just a limp, with emphasis on just limping here. The weaker and tighter the limpers are, the more likely I'd raise. Multiple limpers seem to have a way of protecting each other though.

Flop you are only raising like half pot, I'd probably jack it up a bit more.. but this situation since your raise did nothing but build a pot with a hand that over 7 out of 8 times has very little post-flop playability in a multiway pot.

Do you want to get stacked with 88 here? If the answer is no, I think you should just get out... I'd be very surprised if you were good here.

[Fnord]

nah. this is fucked. unless you are considering you implied odds (read unhatched chickens) you have your odds backwards. accepting 3:1 on an 8:1 is hugely UNprofitable. i would need every player in the hand to limp in order to get the right odds for set hunting, and even then its not hugely profitable, by the #s.

Wrong wrong wrong. You're putting $1 in to the pot with an effective stack size somewhere between $50-$100ish given the players in the pot. Discount for the times the blinds get pissy about people limping in and decide to blow everyone out of the pot, but that's a table texture issue. Anyway, when you hit your hand is so darn strong and you're getting the way best of it on future money in the pot. Particularly with hands like 22-77 limping in to exploit suckers who may or may not be there. It's easy to make up the extra $0.5 or so of expectation you're giving up on your money in immediate odds via implied pot odds. There is just so much bloody money behind. Particularly with donks like the guy described in the pot.

Limping is certainly +EV, the issue is does raising have a higher expectation. There is a lot of weak/dead money in the pot so repping a big hand here, falling back on your set chances if someone plays back or calls could be a better line. Quite often you're getting to freeroll turn and river cards via your aggression which makes you 5:1 ish to make your set by the river.

[siknd]

agreed, to a point. i was just getting literal over the numbers. im sure we all agree that paying 3toone on a seven to one shot is unprofitable in the immediate present.

if you consider the spread between most hands, its rare to be MORE than a 7/8:1 underdog, even multiway. so in my mind, you are making a case for limping ANY two cards in multiway pots due to the implied odds they give.

the point im taking away from this is to not ride the fence, ie, if im going to raise it up, raise it up big. i rarely see (as recommended above) popping it 7.5 -8x into limpers at my stakes. but i will experiment with it.

thanks for the comments, im glad to see that most ppl thot i was beat was well.

[Fnord]

if you consider the spread between most hands, its rare to be MORE than a 7/8:1 underdog, even multiway.

I do think you can limp a wide range in that spot! However, that's besides the point. The joy of small pockets if what you know pretty much where you're at. If you miss, you pretty much have air. If you hit then you have a very strong hand you can push very hard, for for stacks and feel good about it. Perfect kind of hand for NLHE.

[bigboy5540]

Set farming is for limits lower than 100NL.

Like r8ed said, thank villain for telling you early that he's ahead. Do you think 77 is 3-betting here on a 6 high board into the PFR?

set farming is not only for limits lower than 100nl. it works at all limits, especially against aggressive opponents.