Hand reading exercise

[chardrian]

I posted this in the MTT forum as well, but I think hand reading is a very important exercise for beginners as well. Even if you don't play MTTs, the ability to accurately decipher what range of hands your opp's have is pivotal for any game you play.

Down to 50 (out of over 1000 entrants) in the nightly $30 rebuy on Dise. Final table gets big money (top 9 make over $1k, and top 3 are usually over $7k now with winner getting over $20k). Tables are breaking down frequently now, so you have just been moved to this table and have no real reads.

Your goal is to put each player on a range of hands and then explain why.

A second question is to give what range of hands you would call your whole stack off with if you are chardrian, and if you are homebush (ignoring for now whether it was right to simply call the original raise with that range of hands to begin with).

I would love to see some of the big dogs' (e.g. ilikeaces, michael1123, soupie, scgolfer, etc.) thoughts on this.

I'll add what people actually had bit by bit (me first of course) to get some discussions on whether each player played their hand well or really muffed it.

Game #1319462344 - Tournament $80,000 R&A - 4,000/8,000 No Limit Texas Hold'em -
2006/03/01-00:10:55.5 (CST)
Table "$80,000 R&A 35" (MTT) -- Seat 1 is the button
Seat 1: movievision (296,195 in chips)
Seat 2: homebush (86,908 in chips)
Seat 3: bigtmoney1 (146,093 in chips)
Seat 4: mattg1983 (172,538 in chips)
Seat 5: Poker Jack88 (75,764 in chips)
Seat 6: chardrian (109,676 in chips)
Seat 7: Bob_Paul (46,200 in chips)
Seat 8: 91element (63,026 in chips)
Seat 9: El Heffe (190,569 in chips)
Seat 10: Jade (40,182 in chips)
homebush: Ante (400)
bigtmoney1: Ante (400)
mattg1983: Ante (400)
Poker Jack88: Ante (400)
chardrian: Ante (400)
Bob_Paul: Ante (400)
91element: Ante (400)
El Heffe: Ante (400)
Jade : Ante (400)
movievision: Ante (400)
homebush: Post Small Blind (4,000)
bigtmoney1: Post Big Blind (8,000)
Dealing...
mattg1983: Fold
Poker Jack88: Fold
chardrian: Raise (25,000)
Bob_Paul: Fold
91element: Fold
El Heffe: Fold
Jade : Fold
movievision: Fold
homebush: Call (21,000)
bigtmoney1: Raise (137,693)
chardrian: Call All-in (84,276)
homebush: Call All-in (61,500)

[r8ed]

I don't play MMTs much but I'd like to take a stab (for my own benefit) and my results are below in white in case anyone doesn't want to see them.
Results:
chardrian in EP would raise and call allin with: AA/KK/QQ and possibly AK.
homebush in SB would call initial and then allin with a larger range due to being semi-pot commmited: KK/QQ/JJ/TT/99/AK/AQ/AJ/KQ possibly lower PPs or even SCs
bigmoney1 pushing over may be trying to steal but it's unlikely he would attempt a move like this with two people. I think he has AA/KK/QQ and possibly AK.

{EDITED by chardrian} I removed the results in white and put them back to black because the whole point of this thread is to see what range each poster puts the players on and then generate a discussion.

[DaHorror]

Assuming all players are at least average+, being 50 out of 1000 left, and new to the table...

Chardrian in this position (UTG+2) would raise with TT-AA, AK, AQ suited or not...the range could be wider, but as a new to the table I would think not.

Homebush could call the initial raise with a wide range of hands...any pair 55 or greater, 9T suited or better. However, I would expect a reraise/push from him with JJ - KK, AK and maybe AQ suited...that won't always happen.

bigmoney1 could push with any pair say 33 or better, Ace and any kicker higher than about 3, probably suited, AK/AQ/KQ...

Now, would reasonable players do this? Probably not - but it's not that unusal in a tourney. So - does bigmoney have AA/KK/QQ/AK or is he making a move.

As chardrian, I'm probably only making this call with Queens or better, AK/AQ (probably suited)...readless and new to the table...reads would make the range wider of course.

I would think that homebush would fold anything worse than AK/AQ or nines.

So - final answer time?
Chardrian has KK.
homebush has TT.
bigmoney1 has AQ.

[chardrian]

You don't need to, and in fact shouldn't, pick specific final hands for each player.

Your ranges DaHorror and the thought process behind it is what we (read "I") is really looking for.... and I think you have done quite well.

[TLR]

Blinds + Antes = 15000
chardian: preflop raise from EP and then calling a push with another player behind. The preflop raise could be with - AA-99, AK, AQ, however calling the push I would put you on AA-QQ, most likely AA or KK.

homebush- calling the preflop raise and then calling the AI - I think he would reraise AA,KK, AK and possibily QQ preflop, so I rule out those hands, calling the AI after two players going AI - I would put him on 99-QQ, AQ.

bigmoney1 - He is the toughest to put on a hand, it seems like an attempt to buy the pot, hoping to fold you both. I would put him on 77-JJ, AK,AQ,AJ, KQ

[kashpot]

I play some MTTs but I would say that in this situation, and looking at the different stacks and the quality of what is left at the table; its safe to assume that the individuals playing still are of a higher skill level. With that being said

Homebush: AA-TT, AK Though he is a shorter stack, I do not see him as being in a position where his M is that low where he would have to push. Therefore, he is pushing because he is confident in his hand.

Bigmoney1 being the larger stack and with a reraise, i would believe his to have had a AQ QQ JJ or a medium pair. When he raised all in that is using his stack against the others.

Chadrian: Having called the raise and rereraise all in is screaming of AA KK and maybe AK. From the sitaution, I couldn't put you on anything else. You M is decent so your not desperate. You don't seem to be making a move on the pot? So I would have to call it as AA KK.

homebush: KK-QQ,AK
bigmoney1 QQ-JJ AK-AQ
chadrian AA-KK

[chardrian]

homebush- calling the preflop raise and then calling the AI - I think he would reraise AA,KK, AK and possibily QQ preflop, so I rule out those hands, calling the AI after two players going AI - I would put him on 99-QQ, AQ.

hmmmm - interesting. I actually think exactly opposite here. I would think he smooth calls with AA or KK hoping to bleed me, AK he may play either way (raise to isolate or call and hope for a good flop), QQ or lower pockets he probably raises to make sure to isolate.

[chardrian]

Real results:

bigt - 33
char - AK
Homebush - JJ

How well did each player play their hand and why?

[Staresy]

Dealing...
mattg1983: Fold
Poker Jack88: Fold
chardrian: Raise (25,000)
Bob_Paul: Fold
91element: Fold
El Heffe: Fold
Jade : Fold
movievision: Fold
homebush: Call (21,000)
bigtmoney1: Raise (137,693)
chardrian: Call All-in (84,276)
homebush: Call All-in (61,500)

bigt - 33
char - AK
Homebush - JJ

How well did each player play their hand and why?

meh, I'll have a go at this.

Chardrian is right to raise a premium hand.
Homebush could have pushed over, but obviously decided to see a flop and use position before deciding to commit the rest of his stack on what he probably thought was a coinflip. I can find merit in him pushing over, but I can see why he wanted to play it a little more cautious.
however, I think his call set BigT to make his squeeze play, thinking he may be able to drive you both out of teh pot with some strength. However, I don't see how he could call and play for a set at this stage given the size of the blinds relative to the stacks, so it was push/fold for him IMO.
You then call and presumably are willing to take on a pair - however, I might be a bit concerned if you thought u were up against a pair and a weaker Ace and were still willing to take this on.
Homebush must now be concerned, but probably figures his JJ is good and could be up against AK and AQ (or worse)

All in all, I think everyone played it ok.

How'd I do Chard?

[chardrian]

How'd I do Chard?

I never meant to convey that I thought I was the expert. Sorry if it came off that way. I post hands to get feedback and also to try and learn. I'll post what I think about each player's play after a couple more responses.

You did great because you actually gave a thought out response. I'll give you my response once we get a few more.

[r8ed]

The squeeze play from BB seems very poor at this point in the tourny with his stack size - especially with you raising in EP. Good tourny players do this with 33 against an unknown EP raiser? Sucks to fold here but you said tables were breaking down quickly and he has a decent stack. He should call and see what happens in my opinion.

[TLR]

How good did everyone play ?

Charidan - I think your preflop raise was OK. Given the pretty wide pushing range of bigmoey I think your call was OK too, assuming you are willing to take a coinflip.

homebush - I dont think he played it too well. He is out of position, and I think that he planned to push on almost any flop, however when he called the pot was over 60K and the big stack in the BB had to pay 17K to call. I dont think he wants to play JJ three-way, so I think he should have pushed preflop.

bigmoney - without a read this is a pretty marginal play. You have put about 1/4 of your stack in and homebush put even more, with his holdings he could expect at least one caller, in a sitation where he is either dominated or a coinflip, and it was for most of his stack. I think he should have folded or called and destack you if he hits his set.

[chardrian]

Ok - when homebush smoothcalled I put him on a pretty wide range - {ATs+, AJo+, 22-AA, QK}

bigt was tricky, he either had a monster, or he had crap and was trying to use his stack to take a big pot down (remember we are down to 50 so people really don't want to lose at this point and using your stack to bully people can be very advantageous now). His monster range was {QQ-AA, AK} his bully range was huge, Ax, any low pair, any connected cards.

I had AK. I felt there was enough of a chance for me to win a huge pot and/or that I was actually dominating the hand and a small enough chance that either of my opps had AA or KK that I had to call. I feel my call was good.

homebush - played his JJ like crap. With the raise in front of him he doesn't have enough chips to simply call here - he needs to push preflop. He needs to do this for 2 reasons, 1) he needs to isolate with JJ because he is probably ebst but he doesn't want any other hands to come in and oof him, and 2) he just doesn't have enough chips to play postflop, so push now and put the decision on me to decide whether or not to call (especially since I might have been trying to steal with a hand like TJs). His call was bad.

bigt - I don't like the squeeze here. Both of his opps were shortstacked and with the huge pot his push creates, he gives pot odds to call with almost anything. It was just unlikely that he would push both of us of our hands. It was a bad but not horrible play - he could have pushed one of us off (especially me if he thought I was just stealing) and he could have thought that we both had hands like AK/AQ so that if he did push one of us out he had an even better chance to avoid outs. The problem was there was just too good of a chance that one of us had him dominated and would call. Nice play/ bad timing.

[Warpe]

If homebush had pushed pre-flop, would you have called?

The reason I ask is that, in his position, a push preflop into an unraised pot would be my planned line, but facing a raise I would put you on overcards, possibly an overpair, so a smooth call to see a non overcard flop or to catch a set and THEN push is not a bad tourney survival line - leaving some meat on the bone to play with later if you're beat this time around. JJ is such a dicey hand, this line does have some merit, imo.

[chardrian]

Yes I would have called.

But if he puts me on overcards he should push - get your chips in when you are ahead, don't give me the chance to catch anything on a flop.

The call with JJ is fine when you are deeper stacked, with these chip stacks, it's a bad play.

[Warpe]

Bear with me for a minute...If I'm homebush, I'm thinking that you've just put 1/4 of your stack in holding, possibly, AA/KK/QQ/AK/AQ...

My JJ could be good, but maybe not. You have me outstacked, and if I push and you're holding QQ+, you're definitely going to look me up, and probably as well if you're holding AK...

So...I call to see the flop, push in the absence of an A, K or Q, abandon ship otherwise. I don't think you can dismiss this line so summarily as a bad play.

[chardrian]

I still summarily say bad play.

I think our disagreement is due to the range you are putting me on. You say that homebush could be ahead here preflop. You say this because you think I could easily have AA-QQ.

I say that homebush should be ahead here. My opening range with blinds this juicy and most pots being won preflop could easily include any pair, ATs+, AJo+, QK, and maybe even some mid suited connectors like 89s. Yes it is possible that homebush is behind here, possible but not probable.

What you are advocating is basically a set it or dump it approach. If a non-facecard board comes and I still push will you call or fold? If you call, which you infer you would do, then you are admitting that you think it is very possible I don't have QQ-AA. And you've already admitted that I'll be able to push you off your hand if any card higher than a J comes off, which is very likely.

With these stacks, that approach sucks. JJ heads up is a great hand. If your read has my range wide enough to include a good likelihood of you dominating than you need to push here and double up. If, by chance, I do end up having a better hand than you - oh well, you took your best shot and your luckbox failed you. You cannot let these opportunites to become a chipleader and glide into the FT go to waste.

[Warpe]

Okay, I understand your line of reasoning. I'm not so much advocating this line as Devil's advocating it. I wanted to understand why you thought it was soooooo bad.

On a non-facecard flop, then I'd be pushing or calling yours, which does throw my consideration of AA, KK or QQ out the window, you're right. And I think you're also right that you'd be able to push me off my hand if an A, K or Q came on the flop - although a lot of players wouldn't think to try, you must admit.