I know that if I ever folded AA in the above situation , the two all-ins would split.

This would cause my skull to split.

Lederer's point is actually quite interesting - but I think it assumes that most SNG players play the same on the bubble as they do during the rest of the tournament.

It's clear that if the top 3 pay, it's best to play tight until 4-5 people are left (or you are short stacked! This happens fairly often in a PS Turbo - you can have M=5 with 8 people still in!).

Now - on the bubble should you play for the win or ITM? Coventional FTR wisdom is that you should play to win, but my gut feeling is that you throw away money this way.

I think the proper strategy is to be very aggressive when opening, but very tight when calling (if the call is a significant portion of your stack).

Example, lets say you have something mediocre UTG 4-handed, like QTs or 55 You open raise for 3x. BB (similar stack) Re-raises you to like 5-6x, but is not necessarily pot committed. Now, pushing over is a move... but I'm pretty sure it's not optimal unless you have a read that he will re-steal with junk. I agree, that some (most?) of the time he will not have a hand he can call your all-in with so the push-over is probably +EV. BUT how much are those 9xBB chips worth to you? I guess it's only relevant with pretty deep stacks (20x) - which is very rare on the bubble in an SNG.

What sucks about folding to the re-raise is that you don't defend your raise. Similar to folding a hand like QTs on the BB to a probable steal. What sucks more is bubbling out on a ~3:2 against to double up.

Wow, I think this is a double-highjack in the wrong forum...