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Odds on favorite?

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  1. #1

    Default Odds on favorite?

    I'm curious if there is a simple formula for determining whether or not you are ahead in a hand even though you might be behind after the flop. Is there a line of demarkation when ones outs makes them even money or a slight favorite to an established hand on the flop? By established I'm refering to non-nut hands under a straight.
  2. #2
    I don't really get the question, but if you belive you are behind on the flop, but have 14 outs, you have a 51% of hitting by the river. However, all of them are not certain to win for you, and your opponent might improve more that you do.
    >3

    this is my favourite part of the post
    it looks like angry boobs
  3. #3
    I believe the rule of thumb is multiplying your outs by 4 with 2 cards coming, and by 2 with 1 card coming, gives you the percentage of making your hand and being ahead. However, you must be sure that they are clean outs, and will put you ahead, for this to be accurate.
    Against that heinous background, my crimes were pale and meaningless. I was a relatively respectable citizen - a multiple felon, perhaps, but certainly not dangerous.
  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by sandstorm
    I don't really get the question, but if you belive you are behind on the flop, but have 14 outs, you have a 51% of hitting by the river. However, all of them are not certain to win for you, and your opponent might improve more that you do.
    Gotta love my connection dying after a long post... You might have answered my question however vague it was. Assuming this situation: KcKs vs 8s7s

    Flop:
    2s 4s Qc
    6c 10c 4d
    6c 9d Ah
    8d 9d Ah

    8d 6s 9s

    The first four I know the Kings are slightly ahead and the last one they would be slightly behind if all the money goes in on the flop. So I'm curious if a quick rule of thumb might be a hand with an inside straight and flush draw would be approximately even money going in on the flop. Not guaranteed to win I understand but about a coin flip.

    Last example.
    Kh 6s 9s

    Is this approximatly an even money situation. 9 outs for the flush and 6 for the straight against 10 for quads or boat.

    One slight edit. I think the above is a misstatement since the kings don't have to improve at this point whereas the draw does.
  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by strawman
    Quote Originally Posted by sandstorm
    I don't really get the question, but if you belive you are behind on the flop, but have 14 outs, you have a 51% of hitting by the river. However, all of them are not certain to win for you, and your opponent might improve more that you do.
    Gotta love my connection dying after a long post... You might have answered my question however vague it was. Assuming this situation: KcKs vs 8s7s

    Flop:
    2s 4s Qc
    6c 10c 4d
    6c 9d Ah
    8d 9d Ah

    8d 6s 9s

    The first four I know the Kings are slightly ahead and the last one they would be slightly behind if all the money goes in on the flop. So I'm curious if a quick rule of thumb might be a hand with an inside straight and flush draw would be approximately even money going in on the flop. Not guaranteed to win I understand but about a coin flip.

    Last example.
    Kh 6s 9s

    Is this approximatly an even money situation. 9 outs for the flush and 6 for the straight against 10 for quads or boat.

    One slight edit. I think the above is a misstatement since the kings don't have to improve at this point whereas the draw does.
    For that hand:

    Code:
    Board: 2s 4s Qc 
    Dead:  
            	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
    Hand  1:	67.9798 %  	67.98% 	00.00%      { KcKs }
    Hand  2:	32.0202 %  	32.02% 	00.00%      { 8s7s }
    
    Board: 6c Tc 4d 
    Dead:  
            	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
    Hand  1:	67.5758 %  	67.58% 	00.00%      { KcKs }
    Hand  2:	32.4242 %  	32.42% 	00.00%      { 8s7s }
    
    Board: 6c 9d Ah 
    Dead:  
            	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
    Hand  1:	65.7576 %  	65.76% 	00.00%      { KcKs }
    Hand  2:	34.2424 %  	34.24% 	00.00%      { 8s7s }
    
    Board: 8d 9d Ah 
    Dead:  
            	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
    Hand  1:	76.7677 %  	76.77% 	00.00%      { KcKs }
    Hand  2:	23.2323 %  	23.23% 	00.00%      { 8s7s }
    
    Board: 6s 9s 8d 
    Dead:  
            	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
    Hand  1:	38.0808 %  	37.17% 	00.91%      { KcKs }
    Hand  2:	61.9192 %  	61.01% 	00.91%      { 8s7s }
    So, the first 3 hands the Kings are a 2:1 favorite post flop.

    The fourth hand, the Kings are a 3:1 favorite post flop.

    The fifth hand the Kings are a 1.64:1 underdog.

    Go download PokerStove and run all the simulations you want.
    Pyroxene
  6. #6
    As sandstorm pointed out, if you have 14+ outs, you're better than 50% to make your hand. In other words, if you have either:
    a) a pair and a flush draw (14 outs)
    b) an OESD and a flush draw (15 outs)
    then you will make your hand more than 50% of the time.
    From your post, it seems like your intent is to find a strong enough draw to push all-in with. In all the scenarios you posted, you seem to be assuming villain has JUST 1 pair. Good players rarely call all-in with 1 pair. So consider:
    1) even with a 15 out draw, you're about a 1.5:1 dog against a set
    2) a very slight (think 51-52%) favourite OR a very slight dog against 2 pair. To illustrate:
    case 1:
    7s 8s vs 9h 6h
    flop : 9s 6s 2h -> your monster draw is a very slight favourite

    7s 8s vs 9h 2h
    flop: 9s 6s 2d -> you're a slight dog because you've lost the 2s as an out

    Conclusion: if you move in with your combo/monster draw, you want to be called by 1 pair. So ask yourself, will I get called by 1 pair?
    " Don’t misunderstand. A pro isn’t someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That’s just a fool.” - Reno
  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by mdwav
    As sandstorm pointed out, if you have 14+ outs, you're better than 50% to make your hand. In other words, if you have either:
    a) a pair and a flush draw (14 outs)
    b) an OESD and a flush draw (15 outs)
    then you will make your hand more than 50% of the time.
    From your post, it seems like your intent is to find a strong enough draw to push all-in with. In all the scenarios you posted, you seem to be assuming villain has JUST 1 pair. Good players rarely call all-in with 1 pair. So consider:
    1) even with a 15 out draw, you're about a 1.5:1 dog against a set
    2) a very slight (think 51-52%) favourite OR a very slight dog against 2 pair. To illustrate:
    case 1:
    7s 8s vs 9h 6h
    flop : 9s 6s 2h -> your monster draw is a very slight favourite

    7s 8s vs 9h 2h
    flop: 9s 6s 2d -> you're a slight dog because you've lost the 2s as an out

    Conclusion: if you move in with your combo/monster draw, you want to be called by 1 pair. So ask yourself, will I get called by 1 pair?
    I think my question was a little convoluted. However your examples have helped clarify my thoughts quite a bit and have giving me direction to investigate further.

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