Shark or Moron? (And Making Money At Will)

[Jiggus]

OK, two parts to this.

Yesterday I played about 400 hands a Paradise. My various forays at the 2 buck NL tables were all profitable, but the same at .25/.50 and .10/20 limit were less successful.

Which leads me to the following.

I saw this dude at my .25/.50 table and I couldn’t figure if he was a shark or a moron. He’d call maybe 80% of the hands. He’d play any face card, anything suited and I saw a few unsuited connectors as well. He’d mostly just call and if no one showed strength after the flop he’d raise and steal the pot. He made at least 12 bucks in about 60 hands. Then he left. An amazing amount of pairs won for him.

He’d have, say, K5 off, and the board would come out ragged. A moron who called to the river would then show Q7 off and moron-shark would win with a pair of 5’s. And he also scored about 4 flushes a couple of straights and one or two unsurprising wins as well (that is, with decent pocket cards).

I showed him down three times. I lost the first one to his rivered flush, but won the other two. I ended up breaking even at the table over all after about 150 hands. I’m just wondering if that dude had some sort of “technique” or was he just extremely lucky? I really don't know if he was playing some highly developed shark game or what.

The reason I think that, is outlined in the second part of this question.

I see so many people saying things like, “After losing a few MTT’s I just go to the .25/.50 or $1/$2 tables, and in an hour or so make my money back.”

You see, that's what this guy could have been doing, no? He was there for about an hour -- at least whilst I was there and made a tidy sum.

How can you make money at will? I’ll sit for up to 50 hands and the only flops I’ll see are the ones that I get from being in the big blind as long as there are no pre-flop raises. More to the point, how do you make money at will? Particularly when speaking of limit. With the no-limit game I see more opportunities to do so, but limit games can really hamstring one’s strategy when there are players who just don’t fold. You can raise all you like but those dude's face cards are going to see the river no matter what.

Jigs

[arkana]

Im sorry to disappoint you but its more likely that hes a moron who was running hot than some card shark with uber reads. Poker isn't a game where you just win all the time, you have to concentrate on maximising your winnings and minimizing your losses which will give you a profit in the long run.

[Jiggus]

No, Arkana, that doesn't disappoint me at all. It's what I was expecting to hear. I'm well aware of the law of averages and all that, but you omitted answering the second part of the query.

How is it that there seem to be numerous players claiming to be able to make money "at will"? That's the trick I find so elusive.

I'm now struggling to stay at negative 20 bucks off my 150 bankroll. That's after peaking at more than 200 only to crash and burn through cockiness.

[storm75m]

How is it that there seem to be numerous players claiming to be able to make money "at will"? That's the trick I find so elusive.

Don't we all... guess what, half of them are lying, and the other half will tell you that it aint easy. It's hard work. And some of those that are winning, may be only winning for a few months, and may eventually crash and burn. It is a grind... and a roller coaster. No one wins "at will". And if anyone is cocky enough to claim that they win "at will", then overconfidence will eat them up and they will probably crash and burn as well.

[arkana]

How is it that there seem to be numerous players claiming to be able to make money "at will"? That's the trick I find so elusive.

Subjective reality, its what they want to believe.

[Miffed22001]

No, Arkana, that doesn't disappoint me at all. It's what I was expecting to hear. I'm well aware of the law of averages and all that, but you omitted answering the second part of the query.

How is it that there seem to be numerous players claiming to be able to make money "at will"? That's the trick I find so elusive.

I'm now struggling to stay at negative 20 bucks off my 150 bankroll. That's after peaking at more than 200 only to crash and burn through cockiness.

many players will make many claims
Lets be honest about that
A for you, i'd continue to play at the limits you're 'rolled for and wait to move up.
I could say many things about the level i play at and how i'm probably ready to move up to the next, even two, but i cant do that because of roll restrictions.
Don't listen to people's talk about this and that concentrate on making your game a winning one.
Winners dont talk, they just win.

[storm75m]

Winners dont talk, they just win.

Quoted For Truth!!

[Miffed22001]

Winners dont talk, they just win.

Quoted For Truth!!

meh
i just made it up
it sounded good

[drmcboy]

It's easy to make money at will, just keep bad records.

[Jiggus]

Some good advice there, guys. Thanks.

I like that some of you are saying that there are people out there who are embellishers of the truth. I thought so, but sometimes, like for the past week or so, when nothing seems to be falling, and my 'roll is oh-s0-painfully slowly, heading towards the equator, I tend to be more susceptible to talk about things like, "I started with 7 bucks 6 weeks ago, and now I'm up to 450."

So I say to myself, "WTF is wrong with me, then? Maybe I should go back to playing craps, bettin' the nags, playing the lottery, or even try my luck at becoming a professional keno player!"

Jigs

[EricE]

Were you at my table? Hehe
I ran into much the same person last night. See-Flop % for him/her was 80% (raised or unraised didn’t seem to matter). They were pushing the table around something fierce and were sitting on a stack 4x the max buy-in. They took about a buy-in off me in two hands. Both times they held two pair to my TPTK. Both times they called my (pot sized) flop bet with middle or bottom pair to improve on the turn or river. So he/she was not smart but just lucky and running hot. After the second hand I was pissed enough that I decided to go elsewhere and not worry about them. Hehe.

[Miffed22001]

I like that some of you are saying that there are people out there who are embellishers of the truth. I thought so, but sometimes, like for the past week or so, when nothing seems to be falling, and my 'roll is oh-s0-painfully slowly, heading towards the equator, I tend to be more susceptible to talk about things like, "I started with 7 bucks 6 weeks ago, and now I'm up to 450."

If you just remember that if you play the odds it will make you money over time then keep this positive attitude with you.
Trust us all.
You can and probably will succeed
Good Luck

[Xanadu]

Jiggus, if that guy was playing 80% of his hands he was a moron. No good poker player can do that and make money at limit, probably no matter what the stakes.

It's obvious that there is no such thing as 'making money at will'. It doesnt matter how good you are, what game or stakes you are playing, you can't sit down for an hour and know you are going to make money. This is cards ... they are randomly dealt, and a good portion of the time you are going to get bad ones.

But that said, I think playing the .25/.50 at paradise for a good player (I play them a lot since my BR isn't very high), is like 'virtually making money at will'. The players are so bad that although you can't guarantee making money over an hour at a single table, if I 3-table it for an hour, I will be positive 90% of the time. It's pretty simple actually ... play fairly tight (depending on the table), about 25% seeing the flop counting the blinds and play with some controlled aggression, and these tables are easy to beat for 6 or 7 BB/hr/table.

I actually do what you were talking about. I play the $15 coral NL holdem tournament there most nights that I play. I haven't had a good money finish yet after about 15-20 tourneys, so I've lost about $180 dollars in buy-ins. But I just play the .25/.50 for an hour and a half or 2 hours, and though I don't always make money, I consistently make enough that my BR stays about the same. I'll typically 2 table the .25/.50 while playing the tournament, and if I make it to the first break, just concentrate on the tournament.

[Irisheyes]

Could this guy not just be a good LAGG at a low stakes table.

I just saw a guy like this at $10 NL. He was raising loads and pushing small stacks out of pots with nothing and showing. Basically if you wanted to play with this guy it was for your whole stack. The whole table just shut down. People started camping but he knew when to fold aswell so that didn't work. He was up 3 buyins in about 30mins and it wasn't through luck.

Must say it was quite interesting, we dont see much of this in the small stakes.

[Xanadu]

Sure chardrian, at NL, this can be a viable strategy, a la Michael1123 from what I have heard. But in limit, people just aren't going to be bullied as much, and it is going to catch up. I really don't think a really good LAGG can play 80% of the hands and turn a profit, even against a horrible table. And if they can, they are still morons, because they would turn a much better profit with playing 40-50% of hands.

[Jiggus]

Could this guy not just be a good LAGG at a low stakes table.

There ya go. That was my background thought as well. Maybe he knew what he was doing.

I'm not at all a LAGG player, rather the opposite, but this guy played the other players very well. I dunno, I'll have to wait until I see him again.

[TLR]

He could be either a shark or a moron.
The type of strategy you describes works only in very very passive tables where the people are tight and fold a lot, or calling stations who call with any 2 100% of the time.

[Lcplinfalt]

These type guys can be pretty tuff to beat, but they tend to tilt the table which can be great for you.
Hey Xanadu ever try the Pina tourny at Paradise? Not near as much competition and the buy in is $5. Final Table generally pays OK with top 3 being great for the buy in. Think it starts at 8PM Eastern time

[EricE]

Another one got me last night. He sat down and was seeing 100% of flops which slowly went down to 85% over the next 30mins, then he left with 4 buy-ins. The first time I ran into him he bought a decent pot off me on the river where I figured I couldn’t call. I then watched him do the same to lots of other pots. The next time I ran into him a flush possibility dropped on the river but I figured I just had to call his AI on the river…yep, he had it. Grrr.

[Miffed22001]

Another one got me last night. He sat down and was seeing 100% of flops which slowly went down to 85% over the next 30mins, then he left with 4 buy-ins. The first time I ran into him he bought a decent pot off me on the river where I figured I couldn’t call. I then watched him do the same to lots of other pots. The next time I ran into him a flush possibility dropped on the river but I figured I just had to call his AI on the river…yep, he had it. Grrr.

can i ask why you play at a table with one of these players there?
surely you can find another table that is more likely to be beneficial to your 'roll?

[EricE]

Another one got me last night. He sat down and was seeing 100% of flops which slowly went down to 85% over the next 30mins, then he left with 4 buy-ins. The first time I ran into him he bought a decent pot off me on the river where I figured I couldn’t call. I then watched him do the same to lots of other pots. The next time I ran into him a flush possibility dropped on the river but I figured I just had to call his AI on the river…yep, he had it. Grrr.

can i ask why you play at a table with one of these players there?
surely you can find another table that is more likely to be beneficial to your 'roll?

<shrug> This is really only the second time I have seen it happen. When I say I ran into him twice I am talking about the 30mins total he was at my table and I ran into him with two hands. This is not the same guy I ran into the other night so I didn’t know he was a wizard and going to take my money. When my crystal ball starts working, I’ll be rich.