AK bluff goes bad

[BIGandRICH]

POKERSTARS GAME #2432895609: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.25/$0.50) - 2005/08/27 - 03:00:50 (ET)
Table 'Silesia' Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: JoHoldem ($13.50 in chips)
Seat 2: Alexsander ($56.35 in chips)
Seat 3: jackkerouac1 ($50.90 in chips)
Seat 4: xxHALxx ($17.50 in chips)
Seat 5: LukeFree ($56.55 in chips)
Seat 6: milo419 ($17.90 in chips)
Seat 7: Scott Owen ($59.30 in chips)
Seat 8: williamb81 ($43.55 in chips)
jackkerouac1: posts small blind $0.25
xxHALxx: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Scott Owen [:Ad: :Kh:]
LukeFree: folds
milo419: folds
Scott Owen: raises $1.50 to $2
williamb81: calls $2
JoHoldem: folds
Alexsander: calls $2
jackkerouac1: folds
xxHALxx: folds
*** FLOP *** [ ]
jackkerouac1 leaves the table
Scott Owen: bets $6.50
williamb81: folds
Alexsander: raises $6.50 to $13
Scott Owen: raises $12 to $25
Alexsander: raises $29.35 to $54.35 and is all-in
Scott Owen: folds
Alexsander collected $53.95 from pot
Alexsander: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $56.75 | Rake $2.80
Board [3c 2h 7c]
Seat 1: JoHoldem folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Alexsander (button) collected ($53.95)
Seat 3: jackkerouac1 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: xxHALxx (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: LukeFree folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: milo419 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

i had a sudden thought that mayb he was putting me on AK and pushing me around, so i rep a big pair/set and ofcourse have to fold to the reraise.. the money got pretty deep pretty fast.. you think this is ever the right thing to do? or should i always let go of continuations if i get reraised?

[DimitriT]

Don't try this OOP. This isn't continuation betting. This is just a misguided bluff. Here's when continuation betting works for me (like 80% of the time):

1. in position
2. PFR (but no reraising)
3. 3 opps or less
4. checked to me
5. at least one broadway card on the board
6. no draw on the board
7. tight opps. that don't usually challenge
8. tight image

The PFR is not really needed if the other conditions hold, but it helps represent the hand. If you can hit all these, any two card will work - in fact one of my favorite plays is to do this with suited connectors. In the rare case where the hand hits the flop I can put in my standard continuation bet and sometimes get MAJOR action from TP or MP or from a pocket pair that wants to look me up.

[Rondavu]

Don't try this OOP. This isn't continuation betting. This is just a misguided bluff. Here's when continuation betting works for me (like 80% of the time):

1. in position
2. PFR (but no reraising)
3. 3 opps or less
4. checked to me
5. at least one broadway card on the board
6. no draw on the board
7. tight opps. that don't usually challenge
8. tight image

The PFR is not really needed if the other conditions hold, but it helps represent the hand. If you can hit all these, any two card will work - in fact one of my favorite plays is to do this with suited connectors. In the rare case where the hand hits the flop I can put in my standard continuation bet and sometimes get MAJOR action from TP or MP or from a pocket pair that wants to look me up.

Perfect analysis. I usually just go by feel, but I think I'll learn the magic eight, since that's probably what I'm feeling anyway. Oh ya, and one more thing. I can never live up to number 8. I don't need it. My opponents don't challenge because I Carlos Mortenson their asses to death and they'd rather not feel that pain anymore.

[DimitriT]

Ron, I totally understand "feeling" your way into making the continuation bet. I start thinking about making the move as soon as I decide to enter the hand pre-flop. I think about my opponents: do they tend to play weak hands? Are they tight post-flop or do they like to chase? Have I made the move alot recently? Have I gotten challenged recently and had to lay it down? If the board looks good and it checks to me I will make the move with as little hesitation as possible. As if it is my standard play with TPTK. 2/3 the pot seems to work well for 25NL or 50NL. Once in a while I will mix in a full pot-sized bet if there is a remote draw (like a 2-flush on the board).

BTW, if what you want to do is bluff from OOP (or from the blinds) I have a different set of criteria:

1. who needs position, 1st to act is almost as important here
2. no draws and no paired board
3. no A or K but at least one medium card (think Q or below)
4. 3 opps or less
5. unraised pot
6. tight opps.
7. tight image

Here I will put out a pot-sized bet to represent TP. The bet is identical to my probe bet when I actually do have the hand. I will only try this move if I've shown down a solid hand recently and have respect from the table.

The point of these moves for me is not the cash in. I make my money from TPTK, 2pr, sets and draws like everyone else. The point is to keep my stack from draining away while I wait for solid cards. I only have to make these moves very rarely to achieve this. You have to be patient and wait for the perfect situation. Otherwise these will be -EV for you.

[lamaros]

If I have to think "should I bet" I usually don't. Normaly if the feeling is right I just bet without thinking.

Often you have to really play it out though. I'm generaly a loose player so with opposition that has half a brain I'll often get a re-raise to some of my continuation bets, it gets tricky knowing whether to fold them or re-raise back. Very often I'll have to take the bluff to the turn or the river before they drop.

So from that perspective I think your play above was just fine. Unless you have a really good read that they're trying to bluff your bluff you have to throw it away. The re-raise is trouble, when they're AI it's worse. You'll only get away with a bluff when they re-raise like that if you can get a scare card on the turn and they're the right kind of player.

Some other things to consider are:
Only raising the minimum with your bet. If you raise too much people might pick the bluff. Less money helps looks like you're trying to draw them in.
Calling the bet and then bluffing on the turn. This also gives the image that you were playing to trap them.

These option can often put the opposition in a shell too, allowing you to check down to the river even if they have strong cards. If I give up the continuation bet I often look for the free or cheap showdown. Its an option I like as it lets me show loose cards. Then when I do hit cards I'll get more callers and can often extract a lot more value.

[Rondavu]

The point of these moves for me is not the cash in. I make my money from TPTK, 2pr, sets and draws like everyone else. The point is to keep my stack from draining away while I wait for solid cards. I only have to make these moves very rarely to achieve this. You have to be patient and wait for the perfect situation. Otherwise these will be -EV for you.

The grind is what separates good players from great players IMO. Recognizing non action hands and using them to manipulate image, put people off hands for moderate pots, and generally eek steady increase until you a hit a big hand with just the right image at just the right time. The game behind the game is making the best hand fold when it lacks confidence for 7-10xBB. These are the hands you DON'T see on ESPN. Well maybe sometimes. They love showing a good bluff.