Attainable and sustainable

[Knytestorme]

Hiya all, not sure if this is the right forum but figured what the hell.

After doing up some figures in my head about things, I have worked out I want to aim for an hourly win rate of $12. The questions I have regarding this are:

1. Is it possible on 0.25/0.50 NL table
2. If so, is it possible 1-tabling or should I look at 2-3 tables
3. If it's not possible, what limit should I be looking at and how many tables.

Thanks in advance, and again this is for no limit...I've tried some limit play and I just suck at it compared to no limit (though no stats yet for win/loss, guess I need to get PT and remember to get ever 200 hands from Absolute).

[Bmxicle]

Its not possible at one table, you'd need to make like 40bb/100 hands to pull that off, cause you are only playing 50-60 hands an hour.

A good player could make that much 3 tabling. but thats ~ 15bb/100 hands, which is pretty much destroying the game.

So yes it can be done, but it sounds like you are still learning. You can't just say i'm going to make 12 dollars an hour at poker. You need to learn how to play the game well, be properlly bankrolled and play at stakes you are comfortable with.

So for now, i'd say just play poker, get 10k hands under your belt, see what you are making (PT will tell you your hourly rate) and then decide what you need to do to make 12 dollars an hour.

[Knytestorme]

Bmxicle, thanks for the advice there and yes it's fully understood.

At the moment I am working on building my br through whoring a little and learning where my weaknesses are and where my strengths are as well as reading the game. I'm not expecting to just jump in and hit the mark straight up but your points are well taken.

I'm taking a more long-term approach to things to use poker as a side to working but before I do most things I like to hae a plan and an idea of what I need to acheive it. $12 an hour would be my goal around 6 months down the line with a br of a few thousand behind me, thus the final question of which buy-in I should be looking at to enable that earn rate at a consistent manner (and therefore not needing to have to be able to absolutely crush every game ever day I played).

PT is the next item on my agenda, the only thing holding me back from it atm is the need to manually import absolute hands each time as opposed to what seems to be instant import from the party skins.

[Cocco_Bill]

Its pretty much impossible to make that much playing only one 50NL table in the long term. Playing five 50NL tables I make over 12$/hour, lately I've been playing mostly 100NL though.

[evman150]

Playing 20NL I average about 15 or 16 bucks an hour four or five tabling.

That's about 80BB/hr, or ~18BB/table hr.

Low stakes though, but I don't mind grinding it out. I'm way too much of a puss to play higher stakes.

[elipsesjeff]

BR for 25 NL = $500+ takes 5-6 tables to break $12

BR for 1/2 LHE = $600, takes 3bb/100 for 3 tables to break $12.

LHE pwnz.

[a500lbgorilla]

BR for 25 NL = $500+ takes 5-6 tables to break $12

BR for 1/2 LHE = $600, takes 3bb/100 for 3 tables to break $12.

LHE pwnz.

You forgot to mention the vaginitis that accompanies LHE play.

-'rilla

[Estrop]

3 - 4 tabling $20 NL and I make $12 easyily every session. I think it would be possible 2 tabling $50 NL.

[sinky]

How do you work out BB/100 for No Limit ?

[stewartkev]

BR for 25 NL = $500+ takes 5-6 tables to break $12

Dunno...suppose it depends upon the game. I'm playing $10NL and make 25bb/hr per table. Normally 2-table which translates to $10/hr.

[Cocco_Bill]

BR for 25 NL = $500+ takes 5-6 tables to break $12

Dunno...suppose it depends upon the game. I'm playing $10NL and make 25bb/hr per table. Normally 2-table which translates to $10/hr.

No way ~50BB/100 is sustainable even at such low limits. If you really are making that, you should move up as soon as possible. Don't confuse hot streaks with long term win-rate.

BTW are you just guessing these numbers or do you have pokertracker data to back up your claims?

[ChezJ]

man... apparently i have been extremely lucky at the $25 & $50 NL tables because i'm averaging $16/hr playing just 1 table at a time. but that's over only 15.5 hours so i guess i'm due for some serious blowouts. bummer. thanks for the reality check guys.

[The_Cheat]

1. Is it possible on 0.25/0.50 NL table
2. If so, is it possible 1-tabling or should I look at 2-3 tables
3. If it's not possible, what limit should I be looking at and how many tables.

sounds quite possible to me. you just gotta be good. NL25 is genuinly crushable, you just gotta get everyone afraid of you. This is much easier in 6max. But ya, i think there are a few guys who can pull this off, but dont try it unless you are good

[stewartkev]

Cocco_Bill,

I've not been playing ring for long. Moved over from $30 SNG play to re-build a bankroll with the free $10 on Royal Vegas as I cashed out totally to fund a vacation. These numbers are from PokerTracker. It's only about 3 weeks worth of play (3500 hands, I think), so numbers may not be representative of the long-haul.

In the time I don't think I've been playing tremendously lucky poker, but I do think that I outclass a lot of the opposition. Experimented with a looser, more aggressive style (35% of flops at 6-max) and find that I can bully people around. It can be a bit swingy (standard deviation of ~12bb/hr), but I can live with it for now. My bankroll is sitting at ~$300 so moving up is not an option yet. As soon as I hit the magical $500 I will be.

[evman150]

BR for 25 NL = $500+ takes 5-6 tables to break $12

Dunno...suppose it depends upon the game. I'm playing $10NL and make 25bb/hr per table. Normally 2-table which translates to $10/hr.

No way ~50BB/100 is sustainable even at such low limits. If you really are making that, you should move up as soon as possible. Don't confuse hot streaks with long term win-rate.

BTW are you just guessing these numbers or do you have pokertracker data to back up your claims?

I don't have PT data, but I can estimate from all the money I've made and the time I've spent making it that I average about 80BB/hr. That's over about a six month span. I don't want to move up because I'm comfortable where I am and I freeze up when there's lots of money involved. I'm a very good micro limit player, but as soon as the stacks start increasing I turn into Salmon McHalibut.

(I realize you weren't quoting me, I'm just saying 50+BB is definitely possible.)

Edit: I suppose I'm only making about 30BB/100, because I play about 250 hands in an hour.

[Cocco_Bill]

BR for 25 NL = $500+ takes 5-6 tables to break $12

Dunno...suppose it depends upon the game. I'm playing $10NL and make 25bb/hr per table. Normally 2-table which translates to $10/hr.

No way ~50BB/100 is sustainable even at such low limits. If you really are making that, you should move up as soon as possible. Don't confuse hot streaks with long term win-rate.

BTW are you just guessing these numbers or do you have pokertracker data to back up your claims?

I don't have PT data, but I can estimate from all the money I've made and the time I've spent making it that I average about 80BB/hr. That's over 100BB/100. That's over about a six month span. I don't want to move up because I'm comfortable where I am and I freeze up when there's lots of money involved. I'm a very good micro limit player, but as soon as the stacks start increasing I turn into Salmon McHalibut.

(I realize you weren't quoting me, I'm just saying 50+BB is definitely possible.)

Check your math and your estimations must be way off. 80BB/hr is almost doubling your buyin on every table every hour. I have never anywhere observed any player capable of such a feat.

16$ an hour 4 tabling is 4$/tablehour which is 10BB/hour. Big blinds are 0.2 so a Big Bet is 0.4$ right? Where are you getting the 80BB from??

[Cocco_Bill]

Cocco_Bill,

I've not been playing ring for long. Moved over from $30 SNG play to re-build a bankroll with the free $10 on Royal Vegas as I cashed out totally to fund a vacation. These numbers are from PokerTracker. It's only about 3 weeks worth of play (3500 hands, I think), so numbers may not be representative of the long-haul.

In the time I don't think I've been playing tremendously lucky poker, but I do think that I outclass a lot of the opposition. Experimented with a looser, more aggressive style (35% of flops at 6-max) and find that I can bully people around. It can be a bit swingy (standard deviation of ~12bb/hr), but I can live with it for now. My bankroll is sitting at ~$300 so moving up is not an option yet. As soon as I hit the magical $500 I will be.

Thats a very nice and encoutraging start to your poker playing, but 3500 hands is not nearly enough to even begin to estimate your true win rate. I have sometimes experienced 3500 hands of -15BB/100 and other times I am +20BB/100 over another 3500 hand sample.

I calculated some time ago, that in order to know my winrate within 1BB/100 for a 99% confidense interval using my SD of 35BB/100 I need to play over 170k hands!

[Cocco_Bill]

Edit: I suppose I'm only making about 30BB/100, because I play about 250 hands in an hour.

How does BB/100 have anything to do with how many hands in total you play per hour??

Lets say you play 60 hands per hour on an average table and you are making 4$/hour = 10BB/hour on each table. That equates to 100/60 * 10BB/hour = 16.6BB/100. Pretty simple eh?

See now how 50BB/100 is a unrealistic winrate?

[alias2211]

See now how 50BB/100 is a unrealistic winrate?

If only there was a way that you could add support to this narrative description of information by displaying it in a graphical format. Some sort of graph that plotted the variance of your short term swings against your long term trends. That way he could see how some stretches of 3500 hands were -NBB/100 hands and some were +Nbb/100 You know, like the one you removed from a similar thread?

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ghlight=#87740

[evman150]

Edit: I suppose I'm only making about 30BB/100, because I play about 250 hands in an hour.

How does BB/100 have anything to do with how many hands in total you play per hour??

Lets say you play 60 hands per hour on an average table and you are making 4$/hour = 10BB/hour on each table. That equates to 100/60 * 10BB/hour = 16.6BB/100. Pretty simple eh?

See now how 50BB/100 is a unrealistic winrate?

Okay, I just realized what you were saying, and I think you're confused. Me and the other guy were both speaking in terms of /hr, you are talking about /100. Per hour takes into account all tables, per 100 takes into account only each 100 hands. That is why our numbers are so far off.

And also BB I know in limit is big bet, but what about in NL? Is it the big blind? Or something else? I was speaking of it like it was the big blind. Maybe I'm wrong.

All I know is that I make between 15 and 20 bucks an hour playing .1/.2NL. That is between 75 and 100 big blinds per hour.

[Cocco_Bill]

I said--no way is 50BB/100 sustainable and you objected! Who cares how many tables or hours we are talking about when 100 hands is 100 hands no matter how you twist and turn it.

Alright, I see that you edited your last post. Before you edited it said " I average about 80BB/hr. That's over 100BB/100." this I quoted above before your edited. THEN YOU say I am confused??? Trying to save face?

Pokertracker counts in BB/100 as Big Bets in No limit and thats what I was referring to.

[ChezJ]

1 Big Bet = 2 x Big Blind

[evman150]

I said--no way is 50BB/100 sustainable and you objected! Who cares how many tables or hours we are talking about when 100 hands is 100 hands no matter how you twist and turn it.

Alright, I see that you edited your last post. Before you edited it said " I average about 80BB/hr. That's over 100BB/100." this I quoted above before your edited. THEN YOU say I am confused??? Trying to save face?

Pokertracker counts in BB/100 as Big Bets in No limit and thats what I was referring to.

That edit was about three minutes after the post at 10:30 AM PST.

You ARE the one confused. The first guy said "I'm playing $10NL and make 25bb/hr per table [on two tables]."

And you went on about how 50 BB/100 is impossible.

YOU are the one who switched the units. YOU are the one who started the confusion.

[Cocco_Bill]

Talk about a waste of time...

Yes, he effectively said he was making ~50BB/100 (just do the math it takes about 2 sec, Department of Physics huh?).

Then I said that 50BB/100 is not sustainable, I didn't say it was impossible in the short term and 3500 hands is very short term.

Then you went on to argue how it was very possible because you were making more than 50BB/100 in the long term, which I showed was incorrect and that it was no more than 16.6BB/100 trusting your earning rate guesstimate.

You are the moron here who can't grasp a simple concept, I'm done replying to you..

[stewartkev]

I came to check the replies to my post earlier...good argument. Shame I wasn't at the computer to take part. I should be playing a lot more poker in the next wee while so I'll update you all on what my win rate is over the next 5k, 10k and 20k hands. Still not exactly long-term but it'll be interesting to see how my win rate holds up. When I get home tonight I'll stick the exact numbers from pokertracker to date up. Got a weeks worth of histories to import from the oft frustrating Prima site!

Edit: My 2 cents about the /100 or /hr thing...I posted my win rate from PT in /hr as the original post was about an hourly rate! As I play approx 60 hands per hour on each table, this is 42bb/100 per table.

[evman150]

Five hours today, five tables, sixty hands/hr/table. 1500 hands in total today. Finished up 260BB ($104)

That's 17.3BB/100 or 52BB/hr.

That's a bit above average I think.

I'm beyond caring about your ridiculous logic. All I know is that I own the Prima 20NL to the tune of about 40BB/hr. Who cares about /100. I want to know how much my wage is, not some abstract number.

[Bmxicle]

Five hours today, five tables, sixty hands/hr/table. 1500 hands in total today. Finished up 260BB ($104)

That's 17.3BB/100 or 52BB/hr.

That's a bit above average I think.

I'm beyond caring about your ridiculous logic. All I know is that I own the Prima 20NL to the tune of about 40BB/hr. Who cares about /100. I want to know how much my wage is, not some abstract number.

Making that in one session is irrelevant, the other day i dropped 260bb in about 15 hands.